According to the autumn report: new car sales fell in November
Sales of new passenger cars in November may turn out to be worse than the October result, experts and market players predict. Dealers are selling off leftovers, reducing discounts, and warning that cars will only get more expensive. Is it worth believing them? Izvestia investigated.
Artificially warmed up
The data for the first two weeks in November show a significant drop in the new car market, Sergey Tselikov, CEO of the Autostat analytical agency, wrote on his Telegram channel.
— If we focus on them, we can assume a monthly level of 130-135 thousand units. That is, a drop of about 20% compared to the previous month. We will receive accurate data in the first days of December. But now we can say that October was the best month on the car market this year," said Sergey Tselikov.
Experts and market players interviewed by Izvestia agree with these conclusions. The main reason for the November decline is the artificial overheating of the market in October, according to Nikita Kolesnikov, a representative of the Japanese export company HSS in the Russian Federation.
— We witnessed a unique situation when importers and buyers rushed to storm the customs office, trying to make it before the introduction of a new recycling fee from December 1. In fact, November demand was "eaten up" by October sales. The market simply cannot operate indefinitely in emergency mode, and after passing the peak, the cooling phase naturally began," he says.
A successful month for the market
November is a successful month for the market, despite a decrease of 20-22% compared to the previous month, said Nikolai Ivanov, director of the New Car Sales Department at Rolf.
— In October, there was a record market, which is extremely difficult to repeat. November, judging by the trend, will be the second largest month in sales in 2025. Therefore, talk about a fall in November should be taken solely in the context of comparison with the previous month," he says.
Everyone who wanted to, bought it.
According to Rolf, customer traffic decreased by 17% compared to last month. Consumer preferences have also changed, Nikita Kolesnikov notes.
— The hype caused by the fear of rising prices has passed. Now it has been replaced by a more balanced, rational demand. Buyers are looking at which cars remain on the market in an affordable segment, looking for profitable offers and evaluating the prospects. Activity has shifted towards models that are not affected by the new duties, such as used cars from the domestic fleet and new foreign cars imported through official channels, he said. — Thus, the interest in buying a car has become more selective and pragmatic.
In general, all experts support the idea that the vast majority of those who planned to buy a car in the near future have done so.
Which cars are in short supply
However, car stocks were also sold out. Availability of a number of models for many brands is either completely absent or approaching zero — importers' warehouses are actually "washed out," says Ilya Petrov, Director of Retail Sales at Avilon AG.
Rolfe also confirmed the shortage of models from several popular brands. Belgee and Geely have it the most, and Jetour also has a serious shortage. The situation with Haval products is easier, thanks to the stock of cars.
Powerful crossovers and SUVs from China and South Korea, as well as some Japanese models that were profitable to import before December 1, are at particular risk, Nikita Kolesnikov notes.
What about prices and discounts
At the same time, prices for new cars are rising — for the period from November 1 to November 15, 2025, cars rose in price from 10 brands officially represented on the Russian market, according to Autostat. We are talking about an increase from 20 to 300 thousand rubles, depending on the model. Discounts remain, but only on a point-by-point basis. Mostly for premium Chinese.
— As for discounts and support programs, many importers have curtailed them. But there are a number of brands that, on the contrary, have significantly reduced the cost of individual items. These are Exeed, Tank and Hongqi — discounts on some models of these brands exceed 1 million rubles," Ilya Petrov told Izvestia.
Sales by the end of the year are definitely not worth waiting for, warns Nikolai Ivanov. Nikita Kolesnikov agrees with him. The market is overheated by a shortage of a number of popular positions, he notes. The main flurry of sales occurred in the fall, and by the end of the year there were simply no large stocks to get rid of.
— Rather, we will see spot promotions and special offers, but not general price reductions. I would advise a potential buyer not to wait for the mythical general sales, but to actively monitor the market now. The best offers can appear spontaneously, and they need to be caught, rather than waiting until the last, risking being left with nothing against the background of a shrinking assortment, Nikita Kolesnikov believes.
Hope for December
Dealers predict that December may be even more successful for the market. They cite a 2% increase in VAT and the indexation of scrap collection from January 1 as factors capable of accelerating the market. In addition, the law on the export of cars in China will change. The forecast for December sales is about 140 thousand cars.
But January will traditionally be a failure, despite the presence of a large number of "profitable" cars on the market, Igor Morzharetto, partner of Autostat, told Izvestia.
— Perhaps there will be some kind of revival by March, - the expert suggests.
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