Down with the postscript: prices for cars and their delivery time from China may rise
Since the new year, China has been setting new rules for the export of vehicles. The restrictions apply to new cars that are shipped abroad under the guise of used ones. Experts and importers predict an increase in prices for such machines on the Russian market, as well as an increase in their delivery time to our country. The details are in the Izvestia article.
Old for new
Starting from January 1, 2026, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, together with the Ministry of Industry and the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, will impose additional restrictions on the export of cars from the country. As follows from the document published on the official website of the Ministry of Trade of the People's Republic of China, for the export of cars that have been registered in China for less than 180 days, the exporter will have to provide customs with a letter from the manufacturer of the car, indicating the country to which this vehicle will be delivered, as well as information about the availability of "retail outlets" in this country. providing after-sales service." Otherwise, he will not be given an export license allowing the car to be exported outside of China. These measures are aimed at "further standardizing the order of competition in the automotive industry and promoting the healthy and orderly development of used car exports," the document says.
This spring, the chairman of the Board of directors of Great Wall Motors, Wei Jianjun, spoke about the problem of selling new cars under the guise of "bash" in an interview with local media. He said that in China there are several thousand sellers specializing in transactions with cars that are officially considered used, but at the same time have virtually zero mileage. According to the Association of Automobile Dealers of China, the share of cars with a registration date of less than three months and a mileage of less than 50 km in the local used car market was almost 13% last year.
Reaching a new level
The scheme, in which new cars were actually exported as used, allowed local automakers to show good sales results in the domestic market, explained Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem. In addition, car companies refunded VAT due to such sales, he added. A certain part of such cars has been supplied and is being supplied to our country, said the editor-in-chief of Za Rulem.
— First of all, small and medium-sized companies were involved in their import, most often we are talking about the supply of models for alternative imports. However, in some cases, official suppliers also used this scheme through "gaskets" in China — primarily "new" importers who, for one reason or another, do not want to be seen with direct supplies, Maxim Kadakov told Izvestia.
The so—called zero mileage scheme allowed small and medium-sized exporters to quickly saturate markets, and manufacturers themselves to unofficially sell off surpluses from the domestic market, thereby artificially inflating their reported sales figures in China, said Nikita Kolesnikov, a representative of the Japanese export company HSS in the Russian Federation.
— China is now banning this scheme because its costs have begun to outweigh the benefits. The main reason is to protect global brands. When an unadapted car is sold in another country without warranty and service, it damages the brand's reputation in the long run, Nikita Kolesnikov believes.
In addition, the tightening of car export controls by the Chinese authorities is part of a policy of "high—quality" growth, when sustainable and controlled development comes to the fore, not volume at any cost, the expert believes. This is a kind of signal to the whole world that the stage of the "wild Eastern market" is coming to an end: China is reaching a new level of maturity in its automotive exports, Nikita Kolesnikov emphasized.
Market cleansing
According to the Chinese Cars portal, 357.7 thousand new cars were imported from China to our country in three quarters. According to this indicator, Russia took the third place, losing the leadership to Mexico (410.7 thousand cars) and the United Arab Emirates (367.8 thousand cars). At the same time, according to Russian customs rules, a car is considered new if no more than three years have passed since its release. Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto, told Izvestia that "today, almost 95% of cars from China are formally used, although in fact many of them are brand new."
— In the short term, we will see a lot of demand for such cars, as importers will strive to be able to buy cars according to the old rules. In the long term, the market will be cleared of unregulated supplies of "gray" cars that are not adapted for Russia. Major brands such as Chery, Changan and Geely, which are already striving to develop official channels, will only strengthen their positions, Irina Frank believes.
More expensive and longer
The Russian car market has become accustomed to the flexibility of supply chains, and the new rules will temporarily limit this flexibility, Nikita Kolesnikov believes. He agrees that the new rules will eventually lead to the strengthening of official distributors, and those companies that built their business exclusively on used cars with zero mileage will either have to look for workarounds (which will now become more difficult), or reformat their business model. As a result, this may lead to greater transparency and structuring of the market, the expert concludes.
— The logistics chain of delivery of cars from China will become more complicated — now, instead of a quick registration and de-registration operation, you will either have to wait 180 days or go through the confirmation procedure from the manufacturer. Both scenarios add both time and cost. These costs associated with vehicle downtime, storage, and administrative work will inevitably affect the final price for the consumer. For customers, this means that the era of superfast shipments from the Chinese domestic market is coming to an end," Nikita Kolesnikov told Izvestia.
The Chinese local market produces more goods than it consumes, recalls Nikolai Ivanov, director of the New car sales department at Rolf. Therefore, business, of course, is interested in getting a large number of cars to foreign markets, he notes. In his opinion, the most logical and realistic scenario seems to be that Chinese factories, whose models are not officially represented on our market, will receive permission to export "used" cars without mileage in Russia. This, for example, could be Audi and Jaguar Land Rover, manufactured in China, suggested Nikolai Ivanov.
— Official franchises represented in Russia may be against such a scheme in order to prevent double alternative imports. In this case, it will fall very much, there will be very few such cars. Especially in the first months of 2026. And, of course, the cost of such cars will skyrocket due to the resulting shortage," said Rolf, director of the New car Sales Department.
Maxim Kadakov believes that the new car export rules introduced by China will primarily affect small and medium-sized importers of cars. It will be more difficult for them to supply cars to our market, he notes.
— For small companies, freezing the funds spent on purchasing a car for 180 days is a significant blow and additional risks and costs. Accordingly, they will be included in the final price of the car," the expert emphasized.
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