Without oil and gas: what will happen to budget revenues
The implementation of the budget for the first 10 months of the current year was considered satisfactory. A significant deficit was recorded, but it was expected. The main reason for concern is oil and gas revenues, which have significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, even in nominal terms. Analysts believe that in the coming years Russia will have to get used to a life with relatively low hydrocarbon revenues, although the decline is unlikely to be as dramatic. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
A deficit of 4 trillion
According to the Ministry of Finance, by the end of January–October 2025, the federal budget had a deficit of 4.19 trillion rubles, the gap with the same indicator last year is 4.314 trillion rubles.
By the end of 2025, the total deficit is expected to be 2.6% of GDP: quite a lot by Russian standards, but very moderate compared to the deficits in the G7 countries and in the rest of the BRICS countries. Especially considering that among them all, Russia has the lowest ratio of public debt to GDP.
Nevertheless, the deficit worries the government, which in Russia traditionally strives for a balanced budget. In 2025, oil and gas revenues were "brought down", which in previous years often provided a positive balance. They amounted to 7.498 trillion rubles, which is 21.4% less than in the same period of the previous year.
According to a press release from the Ministry of Finance, oil and gas revenues in January-October of this year were at a level exceeding their base amount, but there are risks of lower revenues due to a weakening price environment.
What was the main reason for the decline in hydrocarbon revenues? According to Antonina Levashenko, head of the Gaidar Institute's Laboratory for the Analysis of Best International practices, export declines have been observed in recent months by major Russian suppliers, for example, according to Argus Media.
— By November, supply prices in India decreased by 90 US cents (the lowest since 2023), and exports to Turkey decreased by 27% in September (according to CREA, this is the lowest since 2022). Russian supplies faced other restrictions in the fall: for example, since the beginning of autumn, there have been two multi—level price limits. We are talking about Australia and Japan joining the European mechanism for the ceiling of Russian oil prices at $47.6 per barrel, as well as the US limit of $ 60 per barrel," the analyst explained.
The mineral extraction Tax has collapsed
According to Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, the decrease in oil and gas revenues (NGD) is primarily due to a drop in the mineral extraction tax (MET). So, for the period from February to October 2025, the average decrease in the MET for oil in annual terms was about 30%, and for gas — about 44%.
— The most noticeable drawdown in revenues was observed in May and June: in May, the budget received 532.5 billion rubles of mineral extraction tax from oil and 68 billion rubles from gas against 937 billion rubles and 116.5 billion rubles for the same period in 2024. In total, NGDS in May amounted to 512.7 billion rubles, and in June they dropped to 494.8 billion rubles. At the same time, 793.7 billion rubles and 746.6 billion rubles were received for the same period in 2024, respectively," Dudchenko explained.
Kirill Lysenko, an analyst on sovereign and regional ratings at Expert RA, states that in January–October 83.6% of oil and gas revenues from mineral extraction tax were accounted for by oil, revenues from which immediately decreased by a quarter.
— For oil, the amount of mineral extraction tax payments is determined by a formula that directly includes both the price of black gold (the higher, the more) and the ruble—dollar exchange rate (the more expensive the ruble, the less). Accordingly, the negative dynamics of quotations in the commodity markets and the strengthening of the ruble this year had a significant negative impact on income from this type of taxes, the analyst believes.
According to him, revenues from the mineral extraction tax on gas fell by 37.2%, to 742 billion rubles. And in the case of gas, the main part of the decrease was related to the abolition of the surcharge in the MET formula for Gazprom.
The most worrying thing is the further dynamics, since with a steady decline in NGD, at some point you will either have to reduce budget expenditures or get used to high deficits.
Oil brings less and less
"As the Ministry of Finance notes, there are risks of a further decline in Russian revenues, primarily due to the start of the EU ban on the import of petroleum products from Russian oil (imported through third countries, for example, through Turkey and India) in 2026," Levashova explained.
In addition, the price is being pressured by a slowdown in demand growth and a growing supply surplus (as OPEC data show, the drivers of supply growth in 2026 will not be Russia, but the United States, Brazil, Canada and Argentina), the analyst added.
— In the future, oil companies (BP, OMV, TotalEnergies) predict a further reduction in the global oil price by 3-5% until 2030. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in turn, expects lower prices due to the filling of commercial storage facilities onshore, including in China. Oil will trade cheaper due to high storage costs.
According to Levashova, in the context of a further decline in the global oil price, Russia needs to take measures to ensure the competitiveness of the industry and prevent a further drop in revenues. Among the measures are increasing investments in the technological modernization of refineries, the development of new production/drilling technologies, and the opening of new logistics seaports.
— It can be predicted that in the 2030s, Russian LNG supplies will bring revenues, including because it will be in demand as a more environmentally friendly raw material, necessary to maintain digital infrastructure (power supply to data centers or, for example, electric transport charging infrastructure networks — the main drivers of electricity demand growth in 2040-2050), — Levashova explained.
Andrey Melashchenko, Chief Economist at Renaissance Capital, said that taking into account current forecasts for oil production, its cost and the ruble exchange rate, NGD will remain below the baseline level in 2026.
"At the same time, we can see a smooth recovery in prices, taking into account the expected weakening of the ruble," the economist believes.
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