Which time: OPEC+ countries have agreed to increase oil production

Representatives of eight OPEC+ countries again decided to continue increasing production in November by 137 thousand barrels per day. Experts believe that the cartel is carefully "attaching" new additional volumes of its oil to the market, observing the reaction of stock quotes. According to analysts, the market will evaluate new US sanctions against Russian companies for two more months. What impact this decision may have on the market is described in the Izvestia article.

What was agreed in OPEC+

The ministers of the eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase oil production quotas again in December by 137 thousand barrels per day. This is stated in the message of the alliance.

"Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman confirm their commitment to market stability based on current oil market fundamentals and sustainable global economic prospects and are adjusting production. These are eight OPEC+ countries that previously announced additional voluntary adjustments," the report says.

Despite their commitment to a steady increase in production, the cartel members said they could change their policy of increasing oil production.

"After December, due to seasonality, eight countries also decided to suspend production growth in January, February and March 2026," the report says.

The cartel members emphasize that they will continue to closely monitor and evaluate market conditions, and in their ongoing efforts to maintain market stability, they have reaffirmed the importance of taking a cautious approach and maintaining full flexibility to continue suspending or canceling additional voluntary production adjustments, including those previously implemented.

About the market situation

Since April, the cartel has increased production targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day, about 2.5% of global supplies. But in October and November, growth slowed amid forecasts of an impending oversupply, Reuters wrote.

International experts believed that it might be difficult for Moscow to increase production after the United States and Britain introduced new measures against leading producers Rosneft and Lukoil.

On October 20, prices for these raw materials fell to a five—month low of about $60 per barrel amid concerns about an increase in its excess, but have since recovered to about $65 per barrel amid anti—Russian sanctions and optimism about U.S. negotiations with trading partners.

Analysts including RBC, Rystad, Commerzbank and SEB expected OPEC+ to raise targets by 137 thousand barrels per day in December.

Until April, the cartel had been reducing production for several years, and in March the figure reached its peak, totaling 5.85 million barrels per day. The reductions consisted of three elements: a voluntary 2.2 million barrels per day, 1.65 million barrels per day for eight members, and another 2 million barrels per day for the entire group. The last element is expected to remain in force until the end of 2026.

What to expect next

Valery Andrianov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes that OPEC+ continues to gradually increase production — it has no other options.

"Containment, and even more so production cuts, have long failed to lead to higher prices, which are now under the influence of more fundamental factors: tariff wars, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and many other factors," the source believes.

Simply put, he believes, the alliance is no longer dictating supply volumes and prices, but is timidly trying to adapt to rather difficult realities — a very moderate increase in consumption against the background of increased production in non-OPEC+ countries.

According to him, the cartel is carefully "attaching" new additional volumes of its oil to the market, observing the reaction of stock quotes. So far, the reaction has been near zero (both due to the modesty of the volume and the predictability of the activities of the alliance itself). If the quotes steadily go down, such gradual "injections" will stop. But the alliance cannot return to the policy of reducing production either — it risks losing its market shares, ceding them to American shale oil, as well as Guyana, Brazil and other "independent" producers.

According to the Director General of the Independent Analytical Agency of the Oil and Gas Sector (NAANS-Media LLC) Tamara Safonova, the suspension of production increases by OPEC+ countries in January, February and March 2026 is a preventive measure aimed at balancing the market during the period of traditionally declining seasonal demand for fuel.

In addition, as the expert notes, the alliance takes into account the potential emissions of additional production volumes from non-OPEC+ countries.

—The stabilization of production volumes in the first quarter of 2026 may make it possible to keep oil prices at a level comfortable for the budgets of exporting countries in the face of an uncertain macroeconomic situation in the world," she believes.

At the same time, Valery Andrianov believes that "next year OPEC+ will find itself in such a zugzwang — any action it takes, whether it increases or reduces production, will lead to losses."

— Accordingly, the question of the expediency of its continued existence will arise. But the simultaneous termination of OPEC+ activities would be fraught with serious shocks and could lead to a sharp drop in prices, since barriers to commodity expansion of individual countries (such as Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern states, for example. Kazakhstan) in order to expand its market share," he said.

Therefore, the alliance is likely to adhere to the "bad world" strategy and maintain its existence despite the fact that it will finally lose its leverage over the price environment, the expert concluded.