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- Out of reach: the share of refusals for retail loan applications has reached its highest level in a year
Out of reach: the share of refusals for retail loan applications has reached its highest level in a year
The rejection rate for all retail loan applications reached 82% in October. This is the highest rate in the last year. The corresponding statistics are provided by the National Bureau of Credit Histories. In conditions of economic instability and high interest rates, banks are becoming overly cautious, experts say. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Downward trend
In October, the share of refusals for applications for consumer loans, POS loans, credit cards, car loans and mortgages reached an annual maximum. According to the NBKI, it was 81.9%. The indicator increased by 3.7% compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, a year earlier, the share of rejected applications was 76.4%.
Among the top 30 regions in terms of the number of applications submitted for retail loans, the largest number of refusals was recorded in Kemerovo (83.7%), Novosibirsk (83.4%) and Omsk (83.4%) regions, as well as in Krasnodar (83.1%) and Altai (82.7%) territories.
The minimum proportion of frosts is observed in Nizhny Novgorod (78.2%) and Voronezh (78.2%) regions, Udmurtia (78.4%) and Belgorod Region (78.7%).
In Moscow and St. Petersburg, this figure was 79.2% and 79.6%, respectively.
The NBKI notes that the most serious dynamics of the growth in the share of refusals compared to the previous month was revealed in Moscow (+4.9%), Moscow (+4.6%), Belgorod (+4.6%), Tyumen (+4.4%) and Nizhny Novgorod (+4.3%) regions, as well as in St. Petersburg (+4.1%).
Retail loan approvals remain at a low level with a tendency to decrease further, emphasizes Alexey Volkov, NBKI's Marketing Director.
"Banks, in conditions of serious restrictions on lending to citizens with a high debt burden, are in no hurry to increase their appetite for risk. On the other hand, reducing the key interest rate to 16.5% and gradually reducing the full cost of loans is not enough to bring most borrowers of good credit quality back to the market," he said.
Against this background, competition between banks is growing for borrowers with a high level of creditworthiness, whose personal credit rating is more than 750 points.
In search of the ideal
The increase in the share of refusals in retail lending reflects the tightening of banks' credit policies caused by a combination of a high key rate and an increase in the debt burden of the population, says investment adviser to the registry of the Central Bank, founder of the online investment university "Financology" Yulia Kuznetsova.
In conditions of economic instability and high interest rates, banks are becoming overly cautious, says Yuri Lyandau, Doctor of Economics, Professor at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Now they are focused not on the number of loans issued, but on their quality.
— They are looking for clients with high income, impeccable credit history and low debt burden. Demand for loans remains high, but the quality of borrowers, according to banks, is falling. Overdue loans are growing, and banks, seeing this trend, are tightening the rules so as not to worsen the problem, the expert points out.
The main reason for the increase in the number of refusals, even in conditions of a declining key rate, is the effect of macroprudential restrictions on them in the form of allowances and limits, explains the head of the expert analytics department of the financial marketplace "Banks.<url>" by Inna Soldatenkova. Since July of this year, the standards cover all segments of retail lending.
The Bank of Russia is making sure that a "credit bubble" does not form in the market, when most borrowers will not be able to pay their obligations, says Anna Polyakova, an economist and head of the Moscow branch of the independent trade union Novy Trud.
"Given that loan delinquencies reached a record 1.5 trillion rubles by mid—2025, this policy is fully justified," she believes.
According to the requirements of the Central Bank, for consumer loans, the share of loans issued to customers with a debt burden of 50 to 80% is limited to 15% of the quarterly volume. And for those with this figure exceeding 80%, banks can provide only 3% of loans, says Khoja Kava, senior lecturer at the Department of Economic Theory at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
— In fact, this means that if a person spends more than half of his income on paying off all his loans, the chances of getting a new loan are minimal. In the face of such serious restrictions, banks are in no hurry to increase their risk appetite — it is easier for them to refuse a dubious borrower than to violate regulatory limits, the expert emphasizes.
In such a situation, the formation of bank loan portfolios will be slower, said Alexey Volkov, Marketing Director of the National Bureau of Credit Histories. But these assets will be of better quality.
Banks have radically changed their business model, moving from a strategy of increasing volumes to a focus on the quality of their loan portfolio, Khoja Kava draws attention.
— This approach requires banks to check the customer's credit history not only at the stage of reviewing the loan application, but also throughout the debt service process, — says Volkov.
Keep it under control
Borrowers should also regularly monitor their credit history, Alexey Volkov urges. In particular, before submitting an application, you should make sure that all the information in it is true.
— At the same time, the tactics of obtaining loans can be adjusted depending on the current value of the "Personal Credit Rating", reflecting the quality of a citizen's credit history. If the RCC is in the "green zone", then you can apply for a large loan with high chances of approval and better conditions, if in the "yellow" or "red" zone, it is better to limit yourself to a small loan amount or a minimum credit card limit, the expert explains.
In the current reality, potential borrowers should approach applying for a loan carefully, confirms Inna Soldatenkova. To increase the likelihood of approval, it is better to pre-evaluate your chances by calculating the level of debt burden, taking into account income and an approximate monthly payment.
— If the indicator exceeds 50%, it is worth considering attracting a solvent co—borrower or reducing the loan amount, - suggests the interlocutor of Izvestia.
It becomes extremely difficult for people with a debt burden above 50% to get a new loan, even if they regularly pay their current obligations, Khoja Kava draws attention.
— In fact, half of the solvent population is cut off from bank loans. Even with a reduction in the key rate to 16.5%, the full cost of loans remains very high, and conditions are not yet attractive enough for most borrowers, the economist notes.
This creates the risk that citizens who have received refusals from banks will turn to microfinance organizations or illegal lenders, where conditions are much worse, he warns.
In addition, the inability to obtain a loan for large purchases leads to a decrease in consumer activity, which slows down economic growth.
Harsh rhetoric
The tight monetary policy of the Central Bank, aimed at combating inflation and cooling demand, naturally leads to a compression of credit activity, Yulia Kuznetsova believes. A high key interest rate limits the attractiveness of loans, forming a balance of supply and demand at a level appropriate to the current state of the economy, Alexey Volkov notes.
— We should not expect a revival of lending in the near future. A turning point is possible only with a reduction in the key rate and stabilization of household incomes," emphasizes Kuznetsova.
And although the Central Bank lowered the key rate at the October meeting, it did so with harsh rhetoric, Khoja Kava draws attention. The regulator raised its forecasts for the rate and inflation for 2026, noting high inflation expectations and accelerated credit growth. The central bank intends to maintain tight monetary conditions - as a result, the average key interest rate in 2026 is projected in the range of 13-15% per annum.
— The Central Bank is deliberately cooling the credit market, as active lending accelerates consumer demand and inflation. Until inflation returns to the target 4%, the regulator is not ready to significantly ease policy, the expert is convinced.
The Central Bank's current forecasts regarding the further trajectory of the key rate cut suggest that the recovery in credit retail will begin no earlier than the second half of 2026, Inna Soldatenkova expects. In the near future, banks will not ease policy due to the high key interest rate and macroprudential measures retained by the regulator for the first quarter of next year.
It is also necessary to increase the real incomes of the population in order to reduce the debt burden of existing borrowers, adds Khoja Kava. This is possible either through salary increases or partial repayment of current loans.
— With the improvement of the macroeconomic situation and the reduction of systemic risks, the Central Bank may revise the restrictions on the debt burden, increasing the allowable share of loans for borrowers with an increased index. Structural changes in the economy are also important — it is necessary to switch from credit to investment and production growth," the Izvestia interlocutor summarizes.
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