Our debt has arrived: the business has spent a record 36% of revenue on loans
Companies allocated more than 36% of profits to servicing loans at the end of September, which is a historical maximum, according to a study by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short—Term Forecasting (Izvestia has reviewed the document). Analysts warn that this situation increases the risks of bankruptcies and defaults, accelerates inflation and slows down the economy. Despite the reduction in the key interest rate, business debt expenses continued to grow in the third quarter: companies are heavily leveraged and often have to borrow to repay old obligations, which, in turn, reduces profits. The situation is particularly difficult in the construction and automotive industries. What other industries are under pressure, and who manages to maintain stability — in the Izvestia material.
Why business debts are growing
The burden of interest payments on companies' profits in the third quarter has updated its historical maximum, reaching 36%, according to the October report of the CMAKP "Analysis of macroeconomic trends". During the year, the indicator increased by almost 10 percentage points, and in six years it increased by 20 percentage points. Izvestia sent a request to the Central Bank.
The press service of the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation confirmed that they are recording an increase in the debt burden in most industries. At the same time, they noted that in some cases this is due to attracting additional financing for increasing investments in fixed assets — according to the results of the first half of 2025, they increased by 12% in annual terms.
The main reason for the increase in the debt burden is the increase in the key interest rate to 21%, the highest in more than 20 years, said Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. At the same time, banking regulation has increased.
— In the current credit cycle, the share of corporate loans with a floating rate is unusually high, reaching about 75% for the largest banks. This design and preferential programs allowed financial institutions to relatively calmly survive a sharp increase in the key rate from 7.5% to 21% in 2023-2024, shifting the main burden to business and the Ministry of Finance. As a result, the cost of debt servicing for companies increased faster than with fixed interest rates: they had to pay more not only for new loans, but also for loans that had already been issued, where conditions automatically changed following the Central Bank rate, the expert explained.
Although the key rate dropped to 16.5% in the fall, companies had already significantly increased interest costs by that time, said Fyodor Sidorov, a private investor and founder of the School of Practical Investment. In 2024, such payments increased 1.8 times, and in the first half of 2025 - by another 1.5 times, he added.
Business debt is also growing. According to the Central Bank, the total corporate debt reached 122 trillion rubles in the first half of the year. At the same time, the liabilities of non-financial companies, which make up the bulk of borrowers, increased by 14% over the year. At the same time, the group of overdue debtors is expanding — as of September, their share reached 23% against 17% in 2024, said Vladimir Eremkin, senior researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory at the Presidential Academy.
Many enterprises borrow not for development, but to cover old debts and maintain liquidity, the expert added. According to him, the increase in delays is related to the difficulties of refinancing: banks are tightening requirements, and companies do not have enough available funds for timely payments.
Another factor in increasing debt pressure is lower profits. In the eight months of 2025, companies earned 17.6 trillion against 20 trillion in the same period of 2024, and this is without taking into account high inflation, which further devalued revenues, said Vladimir Eremkin. According to Rosstat, the balance of income and losses also decreased by 8.3%.
The drop in profits is due to lower consumer demand amid high interest rates, rising costs due to staff shortages, increased interest costs, higher import costs of equipment and raw materials due to sanctions and logistics, as well as higher taxes, the expert added.
— For many companies, revenue is growing, but high interest payments are eating into margins. According to Rosstat, the share of unprofitable organizations reached 30% by August 2025, the highest since 2020," said private investor Fyodor Sidorov.
Which business is most vulnerable
According to the CMACP, the maximum load is recorded in construction, where net debt exceeds profit by almost six times. Also in the anti—rating are the woodworking and automotive industries, where liabilities exceed revenues by almost five times, and in commercial services, railway engineering, shipbuilding and aviation industries — by about four times.
The construction and automotive industries felt the Central Bank's harsh policy more strongly than others, since the purchase of housing and cars is largely dependent on loans, and demand for borrowed funds is particularly sensitive to interest rates, explained Olga Belenkaya from Finam. Additionally, the burden was increased by the termination of the issuance of non-addressable preferential mortgages, which had been in effect since 2020 as an anti-crisis measure and had supported demand for almost four years. In 2023 and the first half of 2024, the population actively realized the pent-up demand for real estate and cars due to income growth and affordable lending. Now it is in these sectors that a sharp cooling is taking place, the expert added.
— At the same time, the construction sector and mechanical engineering largely cover the domestic demand for metallurgical products. In woodworking, the situation is aggravated by a decrease in demand for housing, which leads to a reduction in furniture production," she said.
The Ministry of Energy explained to Izvestia that Russian woodworking enterprises continue to adapt to new foreign economic conditions and sanctions restrictions, rebuilding logistics. This process also requires the attraction of additional credit resources, the ministry stressed.
At a rate of 16-21%, investments for such companies become too expensive, private investor Fyodor Sidorov continued. In addition, these industries are not focused on government orders, but on the mass market, where effective demand is declining due to the high cost of borrowing. A vicious circle is emerging: expensive loans put pressure on profitability, and weak demand does not allow compensating for rising costs, he stressed.
At the same time, pharmaceutical companies, manufacturers of leather and textile products, as well as plastic and rubber products have minimal debt burden — in these sectors, net debt is lower than profit, according to the CIMAC report.
How can companies handle the workload
A further increase in debt pressure could lead to a wave of bankruptcies and defaults in the private sector, according to private investor Fyodor Sidorov. According to the Expert RA agency, in January –October 2025, at least 26 companies committed a technical default, compared to 11 for the whole of 2024.
If problems arise for large backbone enterprises, the state is likely to support them through additional capitalization, which can be used by budget funds, says Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. However, such expenses have the potential to accelerate inflation.
Debt pressure will deter investment and slow down the economy, stressed Vladimir Eremkin from the Presidential Academy. According to him, many companies will focus on survival and debt servicing, rather than on raising new funds for development. At the same time, the financial sector may also suffer: an increase in bankruptcies and delinquencies will force banks to further tighten their credit policies and restrict access to borrowed resources, as well as form additional reserves, which will negatively affect their capital and sustainability.
The Ministry of Economy noted that as the key interest rate decreases, demand in the housing and car markets is expected to recover, which will help improve the financial situation of companies.
— Stabilization is possible, but not earlier than the second half of next year. The Central Bank forecasts an average key rate of 13-15% throughout 2026. To ease the situation, a predictable rate cut and a transition from debt to equity financing are important for businesses: the regulator is already encouraging companies to enter the stock market more actively instead of increasing their credit burden," said Fyodor Sidorov.
According to the expert, much depends on fiscal policy: the less the economy is fueled by soft loans, the sooner the Central Bank will be able to ease conditions. The coming quarters will show how quickly inflation will return to the 4% target. The rate of rate reduction and the sustainability of companies will depend on this.
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