The expert predicted the consequences of abandoning Russian gas for the EU

The European Union's plan to completely abandon Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2028 will make life difficult, first of all, for the Europeans themselves. Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, shared this opinion with Izvestia.

Resource balance: the world will need another 300 million tons of LNG by 2050

Only Russia, the United States and Qatar can provide this volume.

"Formally, the ban comes into force in January 2026, but there is a transition period — until mid-2026 for short—term contracts and until early 2028 for long-term contracts. What is important: the document contains a mechanism for temporarily suspending restrictions in case of "supply security problems," which indicates that Brussels understands the risks of its own decision," the expert believes.

According to the analyst, the feasibility of this plan raises serious doubts.

"In the first half of 2025, the EU imported €4.5 billion worth of Russian LNG, which is 29% more than a year earlier. Europe continues to actively buy our gas simply because it is more economically profitable than alternatives," the expert explained.

He added that the United States currently supplies 45% of LNG to Europe, but natural gas prices in the EU remain 4-5 times higher than American prices. Qatar, the second potential supplier, is primarily focused on the Asia-Pacific region, where the LNG market is three times larger than the European one.

"Norway can increase supplies only slightly, and the development of new deposits will require 10-15 billion euros and a temporary reserve of 5-15 years. According to former ECB President Mario Draghi, the European gas market is facing fundamental problems and a shortage of resources," the source said.

Rastorguev emphasized that, according to Eurostat, in July 2025, the volume of industrial production in the eurozone was 1.2% lower than the average of 2021.

At the end of October, EU energy ministers approved the European Commission's proposal to ban all forms and types of Russian gas supplies from January 1, 2028. At the same time, starting from January 1, 2026, it is prohibited to conclude new short-term contracts, and the current ones must be completed by June 17 next year.

Read more about what is happening with hydrocarbon reserves in Europe in the Izvestia article.

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