Change of priorities: the minimum market share of mortgages in 2025 was 18%
The market share of mortgages in Russia is at a low level. Its minimum value in 2025 was 18%. Market mortgages are currently unavailable to potential buyers due to high interest rates, experts say. The key interest rate, which is kept at a very high level, does not give citizens the opportunity to predict loan payments. And this situation will continue as long as the "key" remains two-digit. What is happening in the mortgage market is in the Izvestia article.
In difficult conditions
The market share of mortgages in Russia turned out to be quite low. The minimum figure in 2025 is only 18%. This was stated by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin during a speech at the event "100 projects of Russia. Construction".
He noted that the mortgage situation is a key factor in the development of the real estate market.
"This year, our mortgage market share at the beginning of the year was 18%, which has never been the case since the launch of mortgages in our country. This is very little," the Deputy Prime Minister stressed, adding that it is not easy to develop the housing market in such a situation.
In turn, the chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, previously pointed to the intensification of the housing market in Russia. The head of the regulator claimed that mortgages in the Russian Federation began to grow at a balanced pace.
"The housing market is now becoming more active. And we see that the share of market mortgages is not very large, but even market mortgages began to grow with the softening of monetary conditions," she said.
Nabiullina said that mortgages have recently been growing by about 1% per month, which is a balanced growth rate in the market.
The launch of new mortgage programs depends on the budget situation, explained Nikita Stasishin, Deputy Minister of Construction and Housing of the Russian Federation. The authorities' priority is to ensure the availability of market mortgages.
The stabilization of the situation in the construction industry will be indicated by overcoming the 3.5 trillion rubles mark in 2025, said the deputy head of the Ministry of Construction. He recalled that, according to the Bank of Russia, in the first eight months of this year, 502.4 thousand mortgages were issued in quantitative terms, which is 48.1% less than last year. Their total amount amounted to more than 2.2 trillion rubles.
It was expected that in the remaining four months mortgages could be issued for another 1.75 trillion rubles. Achieving this indicator will be a signal that the situation in the industry has been stabilized.
Alexey Leipi, director of the Domclick department, claimed that the growth of the mortgage portfolio in the Russian Federation by the end of the year would amount to 4 trillion rubles. But this indicator means that the industry has barely received half of the values of 2023, when mortgages were issued for 7.8 trillion rubles.
By the way, the pace of housing commissioning is also decreasing today. In 2025, as Marat Khusnullin noted earlier, they decreased by about 6-7%. In total, at least 100 million square meters are expected to be commissioned by the end of this year. m residential real estate. Of these, about 25 million square meters. m may be introduced in the fourth quarter.
"We are currently reaping the benefits of 2023, when many mortgages were issued and many projects were launched. There is a definite decline in the industry now. <...> We also see a decrease in new building permits, which suggests the risks that there will be fewer homes in 2028," he stressed.
The editorial board of Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation. No response has been received at the time of publication.
A natural result
The total mortgage market share of 18% seems surprising. This opinion was expressed by Nikita Zhuravlev, an independent expert on the real estate market, in an interview with Izvestia. He suggests that combined mortgage programs are also included in this category, when the missing amount gets to the family mortgage, which results in a rate of 12-15%.
By itself, a market mortgage is currently inaccessible to potential buyers, the Izvestia interlocutor emphasizes.
"The interest rate of 19% is unaffordable, and the monthly payments are several times higher than the same rental payments," he explains.
The key interest rate, which is kept at a very high level, does not give citizens the opportunity to predict loan payments, said Irina Radchenko, President of the International Academy of Mortgage and Real Estate. This is the reason for the drop in the market share of mortgages to 18%.
— Developers or realtors offer to take a mortgage at 20-25% with the expectation of refinancing. However, in the coming years we will live with a two—digit "key," the expert points out.
At the same time, at the current key rate, this indicator of a market mortgage is not bad, says Andrey Tonkonogov, head of the TeDo real estate consulting practice.
— In any case, it is necessary to look at the total volume of mortgages, taking into account preferential programs and not forget about alternative sales mechanisms from the developer, — he draws attention.
The cost per square meter of housing today is inadequate in relation to the incomes of citizens, Radchenko is convinced. Over the past five years, since the introduction of preferential mortgages, real estate prices have doubled in most cities.
— I believe that prices are not quite adequate now, and the mortgage is high, and therefore developers are waiting for a cooling-off period. It makes sense for them to finish building houses with money from banks for project financing and sell them afterwards during the period of normal mortgage rates," the Izvestia interlocutor urges.
The main danger lies in the fact that the lack of opportunities to improve their living conditions will affect demography, a problem that is very acute in Russia, warns Zhuravlev.
— In the rational component, this is already reflected in rental rates, when people refuse to buy housing and prefer to rent apartments, and the cost of rent is constantly increasing, — says the specialist.
From the point of view of demand, this also means a reorientation to installments, which does not guarantee the solvency of buyers, complements the Thin-legged. In terms of supply, this situation is fraught with developers freezing new projects on the horizon of 2-3 years.
The power of the "key"
A reduction in the key interest rate may lead to an improvement in the market mortgage situation, Irina Radchenko believes. But today it is decreasing at such a slow pace that it is unlikely to significantly affect the market.
— The micro-decrease, which we saw last time this year in the amount of 0.5%, will not affect the revival of the mortgage market in any way. To revive it, a mortgage rate of 12-13% is needed, Nikita Zhuravlev agrees.
Reducing the key interest rate will lead to an improvement in the situation, but only if mortgage rates are about 12%, confirms Andrey Tonkonogov. Taking into account the Central Bank's forecast, this is the horizon of 2027.
— If the rate is at the level of 2020, when it was 4.5%, the mortgage will revive. But it is important to take into account the demand, which is influenced by the cost per square meter and the income of citizens, warns Radchenko.
In addition, the situation in the mortgage market is also affected by the devaluation of the ruble. In particular, in 2024, the national currency sharply collapsed by 17%, which led to an increase in mortgage issuance, the Izvestia interlocutor recalls.
"Therefore, if the ruble weakens significantly enough, those who currently hold ruble deposits will want to switch to square meters," she does not exclude.
Zhuravlev sees one of the solutions to problems with market mortgages as allowing citizens who have bought real estate at a rate of 8-12% to sell it along with this rate and transfer mortgage obligations to the buyer. According to the expert, this will give an impetus to both the secondary and primary markets, which will allow people to improve their living conditions during a period of high rates.
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