Pushed off the bottom: oil prices rise amid sanctions
The price of a barrel of oil jumped from $60.6 to $64.5 during the morning of October 23. Whether it is possible to talk about the beginning of a cycle of growth in the value of "black gold" and what else will affect oil prices — read the Izvestia article.
A new round of threats
The U.S. Treasury Department has announced new sanctions against major Russian oil companies and their business units. Against this background, the Moscow Exchange index went down, but quotes rose by $3 on the morning of October 23.Urals crude oil added the same $3 in value, which had a positive effect on the revenue of Russian companies.
In addition to sanctions against Russian oil companies, the price increase may be caused by two more important factors, said Nikolai Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam.
— First, market expectations following the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit. And secondly, with the reduction of global oil reserves, the market was waiting for growth before the data update," he explains.
Among the events that will primarily affect oil prices, the analyst named two.
— This is a resolution or, conversely, an escalation and transition to a hot phase of the conflict between the United States and Venezuela. Some certainty will appear after the talks between the heads of the United States and China. It will also become clear how lasting peace in the Middle East is, which Trump has had a hand in. The second significant event will be the next meeting of OPEC+ member countries next Sunday. The market expects barrels to be added to the market, as the trade corridor of $60-70 per barrel currently suits the cartel," he said.
There is no single influencing factor — only a tandem of reasons pushes prices up. Thus, in the fall, there was a reduction in global supply and an increase in demand — Antonina Levashenko, head of the Laboratory for the analysis of best International Practices at the Gaidar Institute, recalls another pricing factor.
— On the one hand, the United States informed the public about the reduction of national reserves in October. On the other hand, the October OPEC report shows an increase in gasoline exports to West Africa. In addition, the demand for aviation fuel and kerosene in the world is increasing," she lists.
According to her, the increase in Brent and WTI oil prices by the end of the week was 3.5% due to the seasonal factor.
— In autumn, the decline in production volumes is more of a tradition due to the continuation of the refinery maintenance season. Thus, according to OPEC, in September, the global volume of oil refining decreased by 1.4 million barrels per day compared to August. Meanwhile, the demand for oil is traditionally growing in winter. Countries (the United States) began forming strategic oil reserves in September," Levashenko says.
Single sanctions are not so terrible as their scalability, says Ekaterina Avdeeva, Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of Corporate Economics at the Volga Institute of Management, a branch of the Presidential Academy.
"If European countries join the sanctions against Russian business partners, this will limit the amount of Russian oil available for trade and create a supply deficit effect," she argues.
Unfair balance
Oil reserves are at five—year lows, there is currently no tangible alternative to oil in many industries (not only energy), and at the same time, the cost of a barrel is unreasonably low, says Olga Orlova, head of the Industry department at the Institute of Oil and Gas Technologies.
— The reason for this is a temporary oversupply due to increased production by OPEC+ countries to maintain or increase market share. The market lives with an eye to the maximum the day after tomorrow, without taking into account the real world's need for oil and the possibility of providing it in the long term. While the real cost of oil, given its indispensability and limited resources in the world, cannot be lower than $100 objectively, she argues.
Forecasts
As Antonina Levashenko reminds, according to forecasts by the US Energy Information Agency, the price of Brent crude oil will decrease by 24% in 2026 compared to 2025. The same thing awaits other brands.
"The reason is the growth of global supply already in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to forecasts by the US Agency and S&P Global," she continues. — Non-OPEC+ countries, such as Brazil, will launch their own new capacities.
Among the factors of price growth, she cites increased market volatility in the event of continued sanctions pressure on India and China from the United States.
"There is always a risk of abandoning Russian oil in favor of black gold from the Middle East and West Africa," she concludes.
According to Finam experts, the price of Brent crude oil will continue to remain in the range of $60-70 per barrel.
— We are not expecting a significant price drawdown. Growth above $70 is possible in case of force majeure, for example, in the form of an increase in the geopolitical premium. We will consider the increase in oil prices to $69-70 per barrel as the realization of an optimistic scenario," emphasized Nikolai Dudchenko.
According to Spartak Sobolev, head of Alfa-Forex's Investment Strategy research department, further production increases by OPEC+ countries balance the market during periods of heightened geopolitics and sanctions pressure on Russian energy companies.
"Thus, the current dynamics of quotations will continue to consolidate in the range of $60-78 per barrel of Brent in the fourth quarter, established since April 2025," he comments.
Ekaterina Avdeeva considers the winter factor to be more than serious for influencing world prices.
"Against the background of rising demand and declining supply, prices may rise to $80-90 per barrel in the next three to four months," the expert believes.
At the same time, the Izvestia interlocutor says, the probability of sustained growth above $ 100 is low.
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