Double transition: Trump changed his mind about meeting with Putin and moved on to sanctions

Donald Trump has decided not to meet with Vladimir Putin in Budapest in the near future, and the US Treasury has imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies. Experts are confident: This will hurt Europe in the first place. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Yes, but not now.

"It seems that we will not achieve the desired goal, but we will meet [with Russian President Vladimir Putin] in the future," US President Donald Trump explained during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. According to the American leader, he has good impressions after his conversation with the Russian president, but "it doesn't go beyond words," so he decided to cancel the meeting with the Russian leader in Budapest, which they agreed on during a telephone conversation on October 16.

Prior to that, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, after talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said that the United States was not abandoning the summit with Russia in Budapest, the only question remaining was the timing of the negotiations.

On the night of October 23, the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as their subsidiaries. As explained in the press service of the Ministry of Finance, this decision was made due to "Russia's lack of serious interest in the peace process."

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant called on US allies to join the anti-Russian restrictive measures and ensure their compliance. The American leader, commenting on the decision of the Ministry of Finance, stressed that Washington had been waiting "too long" for reciprocal steps from Moscow, but admitted that the conflict would soon be over, and expressed the hope that sanctions would soon be lifted.

Also on the evening of October 22, The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States had lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of some long-range missiles provided by Western countries, which would allow Ukraine to launch more strikes deep into Russia using British Storm Shadow missiles.

The American president denied this information, stressing that Washington had not given Kiev any permits, stressing that Ukraine was using only European missiles to attack Russia.

The day after the telephone conversation between Putin and Trump, Vladimir Zelensky arrived at the White House, seeking to negotiate with Washington on the supply of American Tomahawk missiles to Kiev. However, the American leader said that the United States itself needs them.

On Tuesday, he added that the deliveries would not take place, among other things, because tomahawk strikes are possible only if they are carried out directly by the US military, and this will not happen.

Immediately after the phone conversation between the Russian and American leaders, preparations for the upcoming summit began. On October 20, a telephone conversation took place between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which Moscow called "constructive", and Washington emphasized "the importance of upcoming meetings."

Then there were reports of the postponement of the talks, although Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced the continuation of preparations for the summit, stressing that the date has not yet been determined.

In early November, the head of the Hungarian government is going to come to the White House to discuss, among other things, the upcoming meeting between Putin and Trump. According to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, the positions of Europe and Ukraine are hindering a peaceful settlement. He is confident that if European politicians had not hindered Trump's peace efforts, "peace would have returned to Eastern and Central Europe."

Losers dictate the terms

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, according to Bloomberg, brought to Washington a 12-point peace plan prepared by the EU and Ukraine.

It first implies the announcement of a cease-fire by Russia and Ukraine, then the return to Ukraine of all the children who were taken out and the exchange of prisoners of war between the countries. After that, the parties will have to start negotiations on the management of territories controlled by Russian troops. At the same time, it was emphasized that neither Europe nor Ukraine "recognize any occupied Russian land."

According to this plan, Kiev will receive security guarantees, funds to repair damage from the fighting and "a path to rapid EU membership." Sanctions will be gradually lifted from Russia, while Moscow can receive frozen Russian assets only if it "agrees to contribute to the post-conflict reconstruction of Ukraine."

As Bloomberg emphasized, the details are still being worked out and may change. On October 21, European politicians, together with Ukraine, issued a statement in which they supported the American leader's proposal for an immediate cease-fire. The publication emphasized that "only Kiev is serious about peace," and Moscow "adheres to delaying tactics," so Ukraine "should take the strongest possible position."

Against this background, the EU promised to continue increasing pressure on the Russian economy and the defense industry. The EU permanent representatives have already agreed on the 19th package of anti-Russian sanctions, which can be approved at the summit in Brussels on October 23-23.

It includes restrictions on the free movement of Russian diplomats within the EU, as well as restrictive measures against another 117 vessels of the shadow fleet, as well as a ban on the import of Russian LNG from January 2027.

Last week, the European Commission presented a roadmap for the bloc's defense readiness by 2030, the purpose of which is to prepare for a possible military clash with the Russian Federation. At the same time, Moscow has repeatedly stated that they are not going to fight with European countries.

What do the experts think

Retired colonel of the US Army, political scientist Earl Rasmussen, in an interview with Izvestia, noted that the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Washington are unlikely to change anything.

— It certainly won't affect the course of the special military operation or the goals set. And the goals set by Russia and Putin have not changed. They remain the same. In general, you can look at the documents from almost 20 years ago - the goals are the same. The West does not hear — because of stubbornness and arrogance," the expert believes.

He recalled that the 44th President of the United States, Barack Obama, called Russia a "gas station pretending to be a country."

— But oil and gas account for only 20%, maybe 30% of the Russian economy. Russia can adapt. Thanks to the sanctions, the Russian authorities have diversified the economy. For a country that has been subject to tens of thousands of sanctions and has been completely cut off from international financial markets, things were going quite well. I saw this when I was there last year," the specialist emphasized.

In his opinion, sanctions will do nothing.

— All they will achieve is that Russia will redirect the flows and conclude deals with other countries with settlements in national currencies. And this will further undermine the dollar's position as the world currency and further inflate energy prices (they are low now, but this will raise them)," the analyst stressed.

According to Rasmussen, it will also increase pressure and reduce Europe's competitiveness.

— Sometimes it seems to me that perhaps Europe was the main target in this whole story. So this is a very bad decision, it will not affect Russia in any way, and it will hit Europe the hardest. The winner usually does not change his position, he dictates the conditions. The loser should change his position, but so far Ukraine has not changed its position," the political scientist noted.

The expert added that American and European generals are still talking about a possible victory for Ukraine.

— They keep saying that Ukraine can win and return all its lands. What kind of world do they live in? That's ridiculous. It's time for them to wake up. So maybe Trump needs to put pressure on Europe and Ukraine before trying to put pressure on China and Russia. I still think the meeting will take place, it's just been postponed. It will happen at some point," the specialist concluded.

Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist, drew attention to the fact that Donald Trump did not sign the order on the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions personally, he left it to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to do so.

"In other words, Trump either admits that he is not leading the process of imposing sanctions, or was ashamed to impose them on his own behalf. It is also noteworthy that these are the first sanctions imposed by the Trump administration of the second term," the analyst noted.

He added that the US president was once again inclined towards the idea of an immediate ceasefire.

"A particular shame is the reference to Executive Order No. 14024 of April 2021, i.e. the decree signed by Biden. The execution of the order is entrusted to the Office for Control of Foreign Assets, it can also make exceptions for individual companies and operations," the political scientist emphasized.