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- A coup to the East: what will Uzbekistan's rapprochement with the European Union lead to?
A coup to the East: what will Uzbekistan's rapprochement with the European Union lead to?
President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev will visit Brussels on Friday, October 24, where he will sign an agreement on expanded cooperation between the country and the European Union. Tashkent believes that after this, the republic's relations with the EU will reach a new level. Izvestia investigated the situation.
The new agreement will replace the document from 1996.
President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev will visit Brussels on October 24, where he will sign an agreement on expanded partnership and cooperation between the country and the European Union. "I look forward to our meeting with great anticipation, during which we will have the opportunity to continue exchanging views on the approval of an important document," said Antonio Costa, President of the European Council.
President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed that the signing would be "a new chapter of great friendship." According to her, Uzbekistan occupies an important place in the Central Asian region and in the global market. In turn, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic considered that the conclusion of the agreement was in good agreement with the internal reforms being carried out in the country.
It is known that the current agreement was signed in 1996. It focused on humanitarian issues, including political dialogue, cultural ties, building democratic institutions and respect for human rights. In addition, some provisions of this document were of a limited nature and required additional approvals.
The new version talks more about the economy, including customs and technical regulation, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, public procurement mechanisms, dispute resolution and investment cooperation. In addition, there are clauses on personal data protection, border management, combating illegal migration, organized crime and corruption.
It is also emphasized that the document takes into account the main recommendations of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which Uzbekistan aspires to join. "The agreement is no longer a framework, but creates a full—fledged mechanism for comprehensive cooperation," the Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade of Uzbekistan noted.
For a long time, little attention was paid to Uzbekistan
Relations between Uzbekistan and the European Union have gone through several stages. In the 1990s, Brussels paid little attention to the republic. This was due to the remoteness of the country, its lack of access to the seas, and the fact that the territory was considered a zone of exclusive Russian influence. Tashkent was also wary of the Europeans' attempts to spread liberal ideas in the form in which they are interpreted by Brussels.
In 2001, there was a definite warming. Then, after the September 11 attacks, the Western coalition launched a military operation in Afghanistan. To conduct combat operations, she needed a reliable rear, and in this regard, the allies rented a base in Khanabad, Uzbekistan, for which they paid $ 10 million a year. It seemed that in such conditions, Tashkent's relations with the West could reach a new level, but gradually the deployment point was curtailed.
In 2005, there was a major rift in the republic's relations with the EU. The reason was large-scale riots in the Uzbek city of Andijan. A group of armed men there seized a police station, a military unit, and then also a prison, where they released the prisoners. Then the rioters held a rally of thousands in the central square, at which they put forward their demands to the authorities.
Against this background, troops entered the city, and street battles broke out. According to official figures, 187 people were killed, and human rights activists cited much higher figures. In Tashkent, they called the incident an attempt by an Islamist insurgency, but in the West they started talking about shooting an anti-government demonstration. The European Union and the United States demanded an independent investigation, but the republic refused, pointing to interference in internal affairs.
After that, the European Union imposed its own sanctions: it suspended the partnership and cooperation agreement of 1996, declared an arms embargo, and banned high-ranking officials and heads of law enforcement agencies from entering its territory. Further, some of the restrictions were gradually lifted, but relations under President Islam Karimov have not fully recovered.
Relations have intensified under President Mirziyoyev
A new stage began in 2016, when Shavkat Mirziyoyev became President of Uzbekistan, who began to pursue a more open policy. Thousands of prisoners were granted amnesty, the notorious Jaslyk colony was closed, and the fight against forced labor, including child labor, began. Currency liberalization has taken place in the country, the soum market rate has been established, and representative offices of major international organizations have been opened.
At the same time, Mirziyoyev stressed that in foreign policy he would strive to improve relations with all interested countries and blocs, putting economic cooperation at the forefront. Against this background, Tashkent's negotiations with Brussels have intensified. In 2021, Uzbekistan joined the GSP+ system of European trade preferences for developing countries.
In addition, negotiations have begun on a new partnership and cooperation agreement with the EU. As a result of these efforts, the turnover rates have increased. If in 2016 the volume of Uzbekistan's foreign trade with the EU amounted to $1.98 billion, then in 2022 it will amount to $4.5 billion. It should be noted that this is still significantly less than with Russia, with which Tashkent traded for $9.2 billion in 2022.
Further, after the start of its relations between Uzbekistan and the European Union, relations between Uzbekistan and the European Union became even more lively. At that moment, Brussels decided to develop alternative logistics routes bypassing the Russian Federation, primarily the so-called Middle Corridor, which should connect Europe with China and other Southeast Asian countries through Central Asia and Transcaucasia.
In addition, the EU has made sure that Russia's neighboring countries comply with the sanctions regime, and they have begun to pay special attention to Central Asia in this regard. In such circumstances, diplomatic efforts intensified, and the main episode was the first EU–Central Asia summit held in April this year in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. At that time, it was reported that the parties had agreed on a package of European investments in the amount of $12 billion.
Experts urge not to overestimate the importance of the agreement.
Andrey Grozin, Head of the Central Asia Department at the Institute of CIS Countries, emphasizes that Uzbekistan is building a multi-vector partnership with many countries and associations, the European direction is not a priority and exclusive.
— Uzbekistan adheres to a pragmatic approach, focused on solving economic problems, rather than promoting any ideology. He is ready to establish relations and negotiate with everyone, including the European Union. At the same time, I do not think that Tashkent considers the EU a priority, after all, much more intensive trade is conducted with Russia, China and neighboring countries. In addition, the European Union is going through difficult times, so the republic should hardly count on large—scale investments," he argues.
Political analyst Rustam Burnashev says that the signing of a new agreement with the EU is an important event for Uzbekistan.
— The European Union is now paying increased attention to the Central Asian region, and Tashkent is trying to seize the moment. The agreement will lay down a new political framework for cooperation, but further questions will arise about the implementation of the agreements. We do not know whether Brussels is ready to spend money on any projects, or whether the European bureaucracy authorizes their implementation. It is known that neighboring Kazakhstan has signed the same document with the EU for quite some time, and the processes stipulated in the agreement are being implemented there rather slowly," he emphasizes.
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