Five plus two: The European Union is joining the fight for the most important region for Russia

The EU–Central Asia summit will be held in Samarkand on April 3-4. The event is expected to be attended by the presidents of the five countries, as well as European leaders Antonio Costa and Ursula von der Leyen. Large-scale logistics and energy projects will be on the agenda. Experts believe that Brussels is betting on the geopolitical reorientation of the region. Izvestia investigated the situation.

The long road to the summit

The first EU–Central Asia summit will be held in Samarkand on April 3-4. The event is expected to be attended by the Presidents of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, as well as the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, and the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. According to an official statement, the Europeans are going to discuss logistics and energy projects, as well as security-related issues during the meeting.

At the household level, there are quite a few dissatisfied people in Samarkand a few days before a large-scale event. The fact is that the entrance to the city will be closed for the duration of the summit, tourists have been asked to postpone their trips, and students have been sent on short-term vacations. At a high level, however, there is a lot of optimism. "The upcoming meeting will strengthen our commitment to work together for peace and sustainable development," the EU said in an official press release.

Head of the European Diplomacy Kaya Kallas

Photo: REUTERS/Yves Herman

Preparations for the large-scale event have been underway for quite some time. In mid-March, European Commissioner for International Partnership Josef Sikela visited all five Central Asian countries and agreed on a number of documents during the tour. In Astana, he participated in the signing of the Enhanced Partnership Agreement between the EU and Kazakhstan. A document on the development of satellite Internet infrastructure was signed in Uzbekistan with his participation.

At the end of March, the head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, visited the region. In Ashgabat, she met with the foreign ministers of the five countries, and also held separate talks with the Presidents of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. "In the current geopolitical context, I want to discuss the challenges we face, as well as threats to the rules—based multilateral international order," she said.

Resources, sanctions, and logistics

This is not the first time the West has paid close attention to Central Asia. The previous surge of interest occurred in 2001, when the United States and its allies invaded Afghanistan after the September 11 attacks. At that time, the main issue was the fight against terrorism and military cooperation. Kyrgyzstan then transferred the Manas airbase to the coalition, Uzbekistan transferred the Khanabad airfield, and French pilots were stationed at the Tajik airport in Dushanbe.

Over time, however, the intensity of the fighting decreased, and therefore the contingents began to be gradually withdrawn. Interest in Central Asia has dropped in such conditions, although it has not collapsed to zero. In 2007 and 2019, doctrinal documents were adopted in Brussels — the EU Strategy for the region. These documents talked about the protection of democracy and human rights, as well as energy projects, but many of them never came to fruition.

Meeting of the second Summit of the European Union and Central Asia, Cholpon Ata, Kyrgyzstan, June 2, 2023

Photo: Global Look Press/Presidential press service of Ky

In 2022, against the background of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, there was a second surge of European interest in Central Asia. In October 2022, Astana hosted a meeting of the presidents of the five countries of the region with the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, and six months later the same event was held in Cholpon Ata, Kyrgyzstan. There were also a number of negotiations at the ministerial level, during one of the rounds at the end of 2023, the parties approved a joint roadmap for deepening ties between the EU and Central Asia.

In January 2024, a large-scale investment forum dedicated to transport projects was held in Brussels. During this event, the head of the European Diplomacy, Josep Borrel, made a characteristic statement. "In the current difficult geopolitical situation, Central Asia is becoming a key partner for the EU. I have already said that four years ago, when I started working in Brussels, Central Asia was somewhere in the wilderness, and now you are in the center of all events," he reasoned.

If we single out separate areas in relations, then at the moment one of the main interests of Brussels is the development of logistics routes that will connect Europe with China and other Southeast Asian countries. First of all, we are talking about the so-called Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route). Earlier, the European Investment Bank committed to allocate €1.5 billion to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan for the development of transport infrastructure. In general, the EU said it was ready to invest 10 billion euros in a large-scale project.

Photo: Global Look Press/Cfoto

The second interest of the European Union is the supply of natural resources. Special attention has been paid to Turkmenistan, which has the world's fourth largest gas reserves. For many years, discussions have been underway about the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, which will allow Ashgabat to supply natural gas to the west. Recently, rare earth metals have also been discussed. In mid-March, European Commissioner Josef Sikela signed a cooperation agreement on "critically important raw materials" in Kazakhstan.

The third point is that the European Union traditionally requires Central Asian countries to strictly comply with anti—Russian sanctions. Representatives of Brussels constantly talk about the importance of these restrictions, threatening secondary sanctions for their violation.

What the experts say

Political analyst Rustam Burnashev emphasizes that Brussels is seeking solutions to several issues.

— One of the main topics will be the issue of natural resources. I note that negotiations have been going on recently not only about oil and gas, France is seeking from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to increase supplies of uranium ore, Germany is going to build a plant for the production of "green" hydrogen. In general, the agenda will be full, we will hear a lot of statements, we will see various symbolic gestures. At the same time, I think there won't be many specifics, I don't expect any breakthrough solutions," he argues.

Alexander Vorobyov, head of the Center for Public Diplomacy and World Policy Analysis, researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, says that the EU is systematically strengthening ties with Central Asia.

Photo: Global Look Press/Hendrik Schmidt

"For Brussels, the region is interesting not only in terms of countering Russia, but also as a valuable resource base," the source said. — For their part, the Central Asian countries are trying to diversify contacts in order to balance between Russia, China and the West. I expect the signing of framework agreements with an emphasis on the economy from the summit itself. The EU is likely to allocate some funds for projects related to the green agenda and infrastructure development.

According to him, the states of the region, especially Uzbekistan, would like to achieve the entry of their manufacturers into the European market, but there are problems with this — there is high competition in the EU, strict protectionist legislation.

Alexander Vorobyov adds that Russia needs to closely monitor the activity of the European Union.

— There are certainly potential risks for Moscow, because Brussels takes an openly anti-Russian position. However, the leaders of the Central Asian countries also understand this, so I think they will maintain the necessary balance," the speaker concluded.