To spite the Sultan: the opposition candidate won in Northern Cyprus
Elections were held in Northern Cyprus, as a result of which Tufan Erhurman, a supporter of the return to federation, a pro-Western politician, came to power. While Erdogan's allies are calling for the annexation of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to Turkey, the president himself congratulated the winner. Experts believe that Ankara, despite its loud statements about the need for international recognition of Northern Cyprus as a separate state, in fact does not want this at all. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Victory of the opposition
"Even if the results of the presidential election were announced by the electoral commission, the parliament of the TRNC (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. — Izvestia) must urgently gather, declare the election results and return to the federation unacceptable and decide to join the Republic of Turkey," Devlet Bahceli, chairman of the Nationalist Movement party, which is in alliance with the Justice and Development Party of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, commented on the results of the vote in Northern Cyprus.
The politician added that "the security and future of Cyprus are inseparable from the security and future of the Republic of Turkey." "In this context, Cyprus is Turkish and will always remain so," Bahceli stressed.
According to him, the elections in the TRNC, which is officially recognized only by Ankara, "were held with a very low turnout." It was 64.87%.
A total of seven candidates participated in the voting, but the main struggle unfolded between the current president Ersin Tatar, who has held office since 2020, and the leader of the main opposition Republican Turkish Party, Tufan Erhurman.
During the election campaign, many Turkish politicians came to the island to agitate voters to vote for the incumbent president. But it didn't help. Tatar received 35.81% of the votes, Erhyurman — 62.76% of the votes.
The approach of the rivals to solving the Cyprus issue is very different. Tatar, who was actively supported by the Turkish authorities, advocated the creation of two states on the island and opposed negotiations with the Republic of Cyprus, while Erhurman was in favor of a federation. According to him, the two-state solution "is not a realistic approach to ending the economic and political isolation of the Turkish Cypriots."
He promises to resume official negotiations with the Republic of Cyprus, which were suspended in 2017. At the same time, he stressed that Northern Cyprus, while pursuing its foreign policy, will continue to consult with Ankara.
The head of the Republican Turkish Party (RTP) Tufan Erhurman and his wife Nilden Bektas during the voting
"Of course, I will carry out my duties, especially those related to foreign policy, in close cooperation with the Republic of Turkey. No one should have any doubts or concerns about this," the elected President of the TRNC assured.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already congratulated Erhurman. Ozgur Ozel, the leader of the opposition Republican People's Party, also did this.
Greece and Cyprus are ready for dialogue
Razil Guzaerov, a junior employee of the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, noted that the elected leader of the TRNC, Tufan Erhurmar, supports the idea of forming a federal state on the territory of the island of Cyprus. Greece and the Republic of Cyprus have already expressed their willingness to engage in dialogue with the new leadership of the northern part of the island.
— The previous president Ersin Tatar advocated the preservation of a two-state model in Cyprus, which ensured the dominant role of Turkey as the only state recognizing the TRNC and allowed for a more offensive policy in the Eastern Mediterranean, — the expert explained in a conversation with Izvestia.
In his opinion, a change of leadership in the northern part of the island may intensify the process of resuming dialogue between the Greek Cypriot and Turkish communities.
— The situation in the TRNC demonstrates a new reality for Turkey, where Ankara may lose its influence in various regions. Control of Northern Cyprus is essential for advancing Turkish policy in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, Turkey's influence on the TRNC should not be expected to decrease, since Ankara is the main economic and military partner of the unrecognized state," the political scientist recalled.
He believes that Bahceli's statement should be viewed as populist, aimed at attracting public attention.
— A politician often uses this method in the media space. A change in the status quo on the island towards a decision on the creation of a federal state may have an impact on Turkey's position in the region. However, the transition to the actions proposed by Bahceli may lead to a deterioration in Turkey's relations with neighboring countries and the European Union, which remains one of Ankara's main trade and economic partners," the analyst concluded.
Turkey doesn't need it.
In an interview with Izvestia, Alina Sbitneva, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, recalled that the history of the Turkish Republic and Northern Cyprus began a long time ago. In 1974, Turkey sent its troops there.
— In fact, she invaded the territory of the northern part of the island and has been actively supporting the Turkish Cypriots who inhabit it ever since. Now it is important to distinguish between what Turkey vocalizes publicly in the international arena and what really correlates with its national interests," the political scientist stressed.
According to the expert, in the international arena, Turkey declares the need for international recognition of Northern Cyprus. However, this is practically not in line with its national interests, because Turkey itself does not need international recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the expert believes.
— I would say that Ankara even proceeds from the opposite, because if, for example, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is recognized, Turkey will have competitors there, new investors will enter there, and now it actually has a monopoly on this island, — the Turkologist explained.
The analyst does not see much point in the annexation of Northern Cyprus to Turkey.
— Because this will inevitably lead to an international scandal, which Turkey absolutely does not need right now. She has a lot of other areas that need to be addressed," Sbitneva believes.
The political scientist recalled that Devlet Bakhcheli is a supporter of the nationalist course.
— His job is to voice such statements. The Republic of Turkey is doing an excellent job of attracting Northern Cyprus to the Turkish—centric subsystem of international relations, which it is currently trying to build, the expert believes.
The political scientist added that the TRNC is now an observer in the Organization of Turkic States and, in general, the foreign policy positions of Northern Cyprus and Turkey are extremely close.
— The leaders of Northern Cyprus have repeatedly stated that the foreign policy of the unrecognized part of the island is in full correlation with the Turkish Republic, so all these statements are a political game, a provocation. Perhaps in order to see the reaction of the international community and interested parties who have permits to Cyprus," the expert concluded.
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