A scimitar in the back: The Organization of Turkic States has conceived exercises against Russia

Azerbaijan hosted the XII summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), which includes Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, with Turkmenistan, Hungary and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as observers, which is recognized only by Ankara. The sides talked a lot about common roots, cohesion, as well as deepening military and defense cooperation. In particular, they plan to hold military exercises in Azerbaijan next year. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Five plus

"Domestic political and economic stability, an important geostrategic position, a positive demographic situation and a young population, great opportunities in the transport and logistics sector, natural resources, as well as growing potential in the military and military-technical fields make OTG an important actor on the world stage," said Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, opening the summit, the theme of which They became "Regional peace and security."

He thanked the member countries of the Organization of Turkic States for their assistance in the reconstruction of Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur. Uzbekistan built a Mirza Ulugbek school in Fizuli, Kazakhstan a Kurmangazy Center for Children's Creativity, and Kyrgyzstan a Manas school in Agdam. Hungary is building an educational institution in Jabrayil, and Turkish companies are involved in the construction of numerous tunnels, roads, and bridges.

This time, the leaders laid the foundation of a mosque online, which Turkmenistan will build in Fuzuli. The total area of the complex will be over a hectare, the height of the main dome will be 30 meters, and the two minarets will be 40 meters each, 500 people will be able to pray in the mosque at the same time.

During his speech, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke about the need to counter a "new threat that has no borders" and create a Cybersecurity Council to counter cyber attacks.

He also stressed the important role of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which has become "a strategic link in the Eurasian Transport framework," calling on the member states of the TG to modernize all necessary infrastructure along the Middle Corridor.

In addition, the Kazakh leader proposed discussing the possibility of creating a special digital Monitoring Center with the involvement of leading experts for the use of artificial intelligence technologies.

No longer a cultural union

Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the most active speaker. He called the Organization of Turkic States not only a "cultural association," but also a "strategic platform for interaction."

"The tension in the world affects everyone, and the member countries of the TG are no exception. Given the proximity to conflict zones, we can say that our family association is more susceptible to these tensions than other countries in the world," he said.

According to Erdogan, the OTG is "ready for any situation." "We are discussing multifaceted cooperation in all areas, from intelligence and border security to cyberspace. There is a tendency in the world to increase defense spending and take measures to strengthen security. As an OTG, we are also taking steps in this direction," the Turkish leader explained.

The parties agreed to develop cooperation with other states and international organizations, making the OTG the "Organization of Turkic States +". to strengthen its position "as an international player."

The two countries have agreed to cooperate in the defense industry. Following the meeting, the Gabala Declaration was signed, totaling 121 paragraphs. Paragraph 13 referred to the strategic partnership, eternal friendship and brotherhood of the Turkic-speaking countries.

Aliev proposed to the partners to hold military exercises on the territory of Azerbaijan in 2026.

Despite ambitious initiatives, there is a rather low domestic trade turnover between the two countries. Mutual trade accounts for only 7% of the total foreign trade turnover of OTG, since Russia, China and other Asian states remain the main partners of the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Several factors hinder the creation of a free trade zone within the framework of the TTA: membership in the EAEU and the CIS involves complex tariff coordination, and Turkey also has a separate free trade zone with the European Union, which prevents the formation of a common integration policy for all.

What do the experts think

Vladimir Avatkov, Head of the Department of the Near and Post—Soviet East at the INION RAS, emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia that the goal of the OTG is to create a Turkish, not a Turkic world. He stressed that Russia is actually the largest country in the world in terms of the number of Turkic peoples.

— We are the homeland of the Turks. And here the outskirts, represented by Turkey, considers itself the main one, and forces everyone else to follow its logic. By the way, Hungarians also became Turks by joining Turkic organizations. They can pull up others, they discussed the Finns, the Japanese, and the Mongols. Why not? There is also a dangerous tendency to reduce the sovereignty of the member countries of the OTA in the field of culture and language. By the way, the general artificial alphabet has already been adopted — the question is when it will be implemented," the Turkologist noted.

The political scientist recalled that for the first time the words about defense appeared in the Budapest Declaration, signed following the results of the informal TG summit in the Hungarian capital, which took place in May this year.

— Now Erdogan is happy: He is successfully building a turkocentric system, where Turkey will be on horseback in the form of the Turks of Transcaucasia and Central Asia. The two countries agreed to develop cooperation in the field of defense industry, and announced the preparation of joint exercises. Apparently, according to Turkish NATO standards. And how will everything that happens relate to the CSTO and the EAEU? No way, I'm afraid. And the main question is, who will the countries train against? — the analyst summed up.

The member states of the Organization of Turkic States traditionally discuss a wide range of issues from cultural cooperation to deepening economic cooperation, Razil Guzaerov, a junior employee of the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, said in an interview with Izvestia.

— At the same time, a number of issues are being raised by the leaders of the countries not for the first time: the President of Azerbaijan calls for institutionalizing military cooperation, starting with joint military exercises; the President of Turkey traditionally focuses on linguistic issues, promoting the common Turkic alphabet and the model of the "Big Turkic Language", and the head of Kazakhstan suggests new areas of cooperation within the framework of the TG, in particular, in in the field of cybersecurity,— the Turkologist noted.

According to the political scientist, on the one hand, such a list of topics and their diversity demonstrates the potential of the organization and its theoretical capabilities for creating close cooperation between member states. On the other hand, the organization is at the initial stage of its economic development.

— Discussions on the development of transport and logistics corridors, investment projects, and the activities of the OTG Investment Fund do not translate into real actions and practical implementation. And the level of intra—block trading remains around 7%," the expert believes.

The expert believes that the economic factor creates serious challenges for the functioning of the association.

— The leadership of the states periodically focuses on this, but the lack of any action demonstrates the inconsistency of the position on solving this problem. The OTG mostly concentrates its activities in the social and humanitarian sphere: uniform textbooks have been published, a common Turkic alphabet has been developed, various conferences, forums, etc. are being worked out, the analyst is sure.

Guzaerov added that here, too, the implementation of projects rests on insufficient funding and the lack of a common view of the processes.

— The activities of the OTG are worrisome as a new integration platform that includes the states of the post-Soviet space, including the EAEU member states. Turkey is forming this institution to increase its influence on the region, and the member states can use the TG to balance relations with other states," the expert explained.

According to the political scientist, at the same time, the lack of quick results in the activities of the OTG should not relax.

"There remains a need to study the institute's activities and develop measures to prevent its influence from increasing in the region," the expert concluded.