Sooner or later: how the Belarusian opposition is being squeezed out of Lithuania
The protection of the leader of the so-called Belarusian opposition, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, has been weakened in Lithuania. Previously, she was looked after as the head of state, but now she has been equated to an ordinary witness at a trial. In general, there has been growing irritation with Lukashenko's opponents in the Baltic Republic lately, with many leaving for other countries. Izvestia investigated the situation.
Victims in Lithuania
Lithuania has relaxed the protection of Belarusian oppositionist Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Previously, she was looked after as the first persons of the Baltic Republic. About €1 million a year was spent on security, the money went to escorts inside and outside the country, as well as to a motorcade, surveillance of the place of residence and use of VIP terminals at airports.
In October, her security was taken over not by the leadership's security service, but by the Criminal Police Bureau, which protects witnesses and victims during trials. It is reported that the transition period will last until the beginning of November. "I personally talked to her about this, and her office was also informed about the decision," said Foreign Minister Kestutis Budris.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginene said in this regard that the security has been adjusted to the current threat level. According to her, the security services studied the security situation and decided to adapt the protection to the existing realities. In turn, Speaker of the Sejm Juozas Olekas stressed that Vilnius does not change its attitude towards the Belarusian opposition.
Representatives of the Lithuanian liberal opposition criticized this decision, calling it a betrayal of democratic Belarus. But Tikhanovskaya's office complained that no one had warned them about the decision in advance, so now they had to temporarily suspend work to find out the details of the new security system. The Lithuanian media write that the so-called Belarusian oppositionists are thinking about moving to another country, although this is officially denied.
In Lithuanian social networks, the news about the reduction of security provoked a heated discussion. The general sentiment is that the Belarusian oppositionists should be completely removed from the bill. "Expensive medicines are not compensated for poor children, but for some reason they accept visiting guest performers," one user wrote. "Her husband just got out of prison, we need to protect Lithuanians from them, not the other way around," another commentator noted.
The Island of Discord
Presidential elections were held in Belarus in 2020. According to official data, Alexander Lukashenko received 80% of the vote, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya — 10%. The opposition did not agree with the results and organized large-scale protests. In Minsk, criminal cases were opened against the opposition candidate on extremism and coup attempts, and as a result, Tikhanovskaya moved to neighboring Lithuania.
At the same time, Vilnius stressed that they were ready to provide any support to the fugitive Belarusian. She was given the status of an official guest of the country, which is given to foreign ambassadors and heads of representative offices of international organizations. President Gitanas Nauseda nominated the oppositionist for the Nobel Peace Prize and rejected all attempts by Minsk to achieve her extradition.
March in support of the Belarusian opposition
Gradually, however, the "honeymoon" began to come to an end, and the Belarusian diaspora in the Baltic republic faced serious problems. At first, the Lithuanian Migration Department launched a large-scale check of the migrants. It was claimed that there might be "KGB agents" among them, so they were asked to disclose their political views by filling out a special questionnaire.
The Lithuanian authorities then explained that they were not fully aware of the problems that could arise due to the influx of guests from a neighboring country. "The government has decided to significantly reduce the number of people. It seems to me that our institutions sometimes do not raise this issue consistently. It is good that we have started to change our perception," said Prime Minister Ingrid Simonite.
Further, the Lithuanian authorities began to withdraw residence permits from those who were considered unreliable. They were often people who had once served in the Belarusian army or worked in the nuclear industry. There have been many scandals in this regard. So, in 2023, the security forces deported a man who had lived in the country for 17 years, his wife and children were Lithuanian citizens. In another case, a Belarusian climbed a cell tower in Vilnius in protest against the expulsion.
After that, Lithuania began to actively discuss the idea of the Seimas Committee on national security, which proposed to ban relocators from frequent trips to their homeland. They wanted to set a threshold of at least three months between voyages for Belarusians. The initiative eventually failed, but provoked an additional scandal. The fact is that Tikhanovskaya opposed the bill — in response, a number of Lithuanian politicians advised her not to interfere in other people's affairs.
Finally, a lot of problems have arisen due to specific historical disputes. For example, Tikhanovskaya's adviser Anatoly Lebedko showed a map of "historical Belarus" with Vilnius in its composition at one of the events. At the end of last year, Tikhanovskaya's office also presented a draft of the "passport of new Belarus", which depicts a coat of arms very similar to the coat of arms of Lithuania.
This year, additional difficulties have arisen. First of all, new presidential elections were held in Belarus in January, and Alexander Lukashenko won an unconditional victory again. After that, the already dubious status of Tikhanovskaya was in doubt. Secondly, Sergei, the husband of the "leader", who spent five years in prison in his homeland, was released in the summer.
Sergey and Svetlana Tiikhanovsky
He immediately developed a vigorous activity, made a lot of shocking and controversial statements. In one of his speeches, he promised to create a kind of "Belarusian island" in Lithuania, that is, autonomy. In the Baltic Republic, this proposal caused a storm of indignation. Nationalist MP Vytautas Sinica then appealed to the Foreign Ministry demanding that the office of the fugitive Belarusian opposition be stripped of its accreditation. Official Vilnius refused, but now, as it turns out, it has begun to move in this direction.
What the experts say
Vsevolod Shimov, adviser to the president of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies, explains that Lithuania did not expect Tikhanovskaya and her team to stay in the country for a long time.
— The bet was on the rapid overthrow of Alexander Lukashenko and the return of migrants to their homeland. The reality turned out to be different. Tikhanovskaya's office and tens of thousands of Belarusians have registered in Lithuania seriously and for a long time, creating overheating in the local very tight labor market, as well as fueling traditional Baltic xenophobia against Slavs. The situation is aggravated by the general deterioration of the economic situation in Lithuania and the growth of military spending, which is already approaching 5% of GDP," he emphasizes.
The interlocutor adds that Lithuania will not be able to completely abandon its obligations.
— The government of the country has become a hostage to the European policy, which is still based on the support of the so-called democratic forces and the rejection of the "Lukashenka regime". Therefore, the expulsion of Tikhanovskaya threatens Lithuania with a big political scandal. This means that Vilnius will continue to support the opposition, although it will be less willing to do so," he believes.
Nikolai Mezhevich, head of the Center for Belarusian Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, says that in 2020 Lithuania hoped to increase its influence in Belarus with Tikhanovskaya's help. Gradually, however, hopes evaporated, and irritation began to grow instead.
— I think the option of Svetlana and her staff moving to some other country is quite realistic. After all, Lithuania is a small country where everything is in plain sight, Tikhanovskaya and her headquarters stand out too much from the general background. Somewhere in Berlin, they will feel more comfortable, they will be able to master European grants in a more relaxed atmosphere, while they will be less conspicuous to local voters," he notes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
