From the same protest: the opposition tried to organize a Maidan in Georgia

Georgia's political landscape shows resilience, and opposition rallies are unlikely to lead to a change of government, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The October 4 riots were an attempt to seize power, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said. Dozens of police officers were injured during the clashes - the main organizers of the action have already been detained. At the same time, the population supported the Georgian Dream in the municipal elections, and the attempt to disrupt the vote failed. Local intelligence agencies reported on the prevention of sabotage and the discovery of a Ukrainian trace in what is happening. The information about how the situation in Georgia will develop is in the Izvestia article.

The aggravation of the situation in Georgia

On October 4, the Georgian opposition attempted to organize a Maidan in Tbilisi on the day of the municipal elections, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said.

— Over the past four years, we have already seen the fifth attempt to organize a Maidan in our country. For four years, the "Nazis" (the name of the opposition after the name of the United National Movement party) have already tried five times to overthrow the government and organize a Maidan," the head of government said at a briefing.

The day before, protesters filled Rustaveli Avenue in Tbilisi, gathering outside the parliament building. Paata Burchuladze, an opera singer and leader of the Rustaveli Avenue protest movement, spoke at the opening of an opposition rally calling for the seizure of power. Soon, the demonstrators tried to break into the presidential palace. Several dozen radicals tore down the fence and even entered the courtyard, using pyrotechnics against law enforcement officers and throwing stones at them. Soldiers of the Interior Ministry's special forces repelled the assault using tear gas.

As a result, law enforcement forces were able to push the crowd away from the palace and dismantled the barricades. At the same time, far fewer people came to the main opposition rally than the organizers had announced: about 30-40 thousand instead of the planned 500 thousand.

At least 32 police officers were injured at the rally in Tbilisi, one of them was seriously injured. On Sunday night, the republic's Interior Ministry detained five organizers of the rally, including Murtaz Zodelava and Paata Burchuladze, for calling for the overthrow of the government and organizing group violence. Both face up to nine years in prison.

The Georgian State Security Service was able to prevent sabotage in Tbilisi during a rally on October 4. According to the ministry, a large number of weapons and explosives with a detonator were seized - all of them were hidden in a forest near the capital. An external trace has also been found in what is happening: a Georgian citizen purchased ammunition on the instructions of a member of one of the military formations operating in Ukraine.

— The government will be replaced only by elections. And we see how the elections are improving from year to year and becoming exemplary. Yesterday, observers noted that in many EU countries there is no such standard. An electronic electoral system has been introduced, and everyone can see the level of the elections," the Georgian Prime Minister said.

On October 4, elections were held in 64 municipalities in Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream — Democratic Georgia party has won everywhere, the country's Central Election Commission said. The victory in the capital is of particular importance — the candidate for mayor from the ruling party, Kakha Kaladze, after processing 100% of the protocols, won 71.612% of the votes. Georgian Dream won 70% of the seats in the Tbilisi City Assembly. The mayoral candidates from the ruling party won a landslide victory in the other four major cities — Batumi, Kutaisi, Poti and Rustavi.

The authorities will continue to arrest protesters, said Georgy Lomia, secretary of the Alliance of Patriots of Georgia party. .

Will the "Georgian Dream" stand?

Political life in Georgia has become sharply radicalized in recent years. The country's authorities act based on national interests and try to protect the political system from external interference. In 2024, Parliament passed a law that requires NGOs to register as "agents of foreign influence" if their foreign funding accounts for more than 20% of their total income. The opposition held mass rallies against this law, but in the subsequent parliamentary elections in October 2024, the Georgian Dream was able to hold the majority.

The opposition's reaction to the results of the local government elections was predictable. It is largely due to dissatisfaction with the results of the parliamentary and presidential elections held in Georgia in 2024. Since then, protest actions have been regularly held in Georgian cities, Dmitry Sidorov, head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at MGLU, told Izvestia.

— The opposition's initial boycott of the elections and the development of the protest on election day demonstrated that the elections were seen as a convenient reason to try to regain lost ground and change the regime in the country. The opposition has mobilized its electorate, declaring that a peaceful overthrow of power will take place in the country," the expert noted.

Evgenia Goryushina, head of the Caucasian Studies Sector at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, added in an interview with Izvestia that one should not expect large-scale changes from these rallies. Street protests in Georgia are no longer perceived as an effective method of solving political problems. There is a growing demand for a creative agenda in society: citizens are not concerned about a change of government, but about the real prospects for economic development. Integration projects into international transport corridors are becoming key.

— Georgia's political landscape demonstrates enviable resilience. Despite the growing pressure from Brussels and the activity of the internal opposition, the ruling Georgian Dream coalition remains in control of the situation. The government manages to maintain a complex but viable balance by developing economic ties with both the West (EU, USA) and the East (China)," said Evgenia Goryushina.

At the same time, even during the rallies of 2024, some foreign ministers of European countries spoke at opposition rallies. Now the EU does not rule out the abolition of the visa-free regime with Georgia as a last resort, Czech MEP Tomasz Zdechowski told Izvestia.

— Recently, the EU suspended visa-free entry for holders of Georgian diplomatic passports. Any decision to extend such a measure to ordinary citizens will be considered only as a last resort and will depend on the steps taken by the Georgian authorities. The EU still prefers to maintain contacts between people and is looking for targeted solutions before taking broader measures," Zdechowski said.

Despite the fact that the EU's activities in support of the opposition and protests in Georgia are sharply criticized by the current Georgian leadership, Dmitry Sidorov predicts, the European Union will continue to exert pressure and manipulate public opinion - Brussels has enough tools for this. Earlier, the Georgian authorities had already postponed negotiations on joining the European Union until at least 2028.