The Central Bank did not rule out reaching a single-digit value of the key rate in 2026

By the end of 2026, the key rate may reach a single-digit level. This was announced on September 20 by Kirill Tremasov, Adviser to the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, at the XVI South of Russia Science Festival.

"In July, we had an updated forecast: for next year, the forecast for the average annual value of the key rate is 12-13%. This means that if, for example, by the end of this year the rate continues to decrease and amounts to, say, 15%, theoretically it cannot be ruled out that by the end of next year it may be unambiguous," Tremasov quotes TASS.

At the same time, the representative of the Central Bank noted that such a scenario is likely, but not predetermined.

"We are budgeting for 2026 at the key level of 12-13%"

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Earlier in the day, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin, suggested at the First International Economic Forum in Tskhinvali that the Central Bank would continue to reduce the key rate, and by the end of 2025 it would amount to 15% per annum. He also added that in order for loans to become an effective investment tool, the key interest rate should be at the level of 10-12%.

On September 12, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered its key rate to 17% per annum. According to the regulator's forecast, in 2025, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will decrease to 6.0-7.0%, and in 2026 it will return to the target level of 4.0%. In the future, inflation is expected to remain at the target level.

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