- Статьи
- World
- Corridor with a view: what to expect from the negotiations on the border of Armenia and Turkey
Corridor with a view: what to expect from the negotiations on the border of Armenia and Turkey
The first meeting of the government delegations of the two countries will take place on the border of Armenia and Turkey. The establishment of diplomatic relations and the opening of the border are on the agenda. Yerevan hopes that cooperation with Ankara will get off the ground, which will allow it to break out of regional isolation. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
With an eye on Pakistan
A meeting of the government delegations of the two countries will be held on the border of Armenia and Turkey in the coming days. It is known that the missions will be headed by special representatives for the establishment of relations Ruben Rubinyan and Serdar Kilic. The Turkish negotiators are expected to visit Armenia by land, passing through the Alijan-Margara checkpoint. The exact date of the meeting is not mentioned, and the place of negotiations is also not indicated.
Turkish sources say that the issues of normalization of relations and the implementation of previously adopted decisions will be on the agenda. In turn, the Armenian special Representative Ruben Rubinyan says that the main focus will be on establishing diplomatic relations and opening the border. According to him, technical details will also be discussed, including the restoration of traffic on the Kars–Gyumri railway line and the restoration of the Ani Bridge.
Rubinyan also stressed that he is optimistic. According to him, after agreeing on a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, cooperation with Turkey should also move forward. "I see no reason for delays. There are no problems on the Armenian side, we are ready to open borders and establish diplomatic relations tomorrow," he said.
Additional optimism is associated with the fact that at the end of August, Armenia established diplomatic relations with another close ally of Azerbaijan, Pakistan. The relevant documents were signed by the foreign ministers on August 31 at the SCO summit in China, and Yerevan and Islamabad are expected to exchange ambassadors in the near future. However, this story was overshadowed by the fact that at the same summit Pakistan blocked Armenia's entry into the SCO.
Without Karabakh and genocide
Turkey recognized Armenia's independence in 1991, but the two countries have not yet established diplomatic relations. Ankara is blocking the land border, and goods between the two countries are transiting through the territory of Georgia.
Among the reasons for the conflict is Turkey's support for Azerbaijan in its confrontation with Armenia over Nagorno—Karabakh. In addition, Yerevan has been seeking international recognition of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire for many years, which has greatly irritated Ankara. It is believed that the efforts of the Armenian authorities and the Diaspora in European countries prevented Turkey from joining the European Union.
Once in modern history, neighboring countries have been close to resolving disputes. This happened in 2008-2009, when the presidents of the two countries exchanged visits and agreed to open the borders. The process could not be brought to a result due to the position of the political elites of the two countries, who considered the agreements to be a concession to their neighbor. Turkey was also influenced by the position of Azerbaijan, which demanded to maintain pressure on Armenia.
A new stage began after the second Karabakh war, which took place in 2020. Then the Armenian forces suffered a heavy defeat, and later completely abandoned the disputed region. At the same time, Ankara provided maximum support to its Azerbaijani ally by transferring weapons, sending advisers, and standing up for it in the international arena. As a result, Turkey's role in the region has grown dramatically.
After the initial shock, Armenia quickly came to terms with the changed situation and set a course towards normalizing relations with its neighboring state. To do this, the Government of the country began to actively change the humanitarian policy in the country. Thus, Nikol Pashinyan regularly speaks out in favor of rejecting the concept of "historical Armenia," most of which was located on the territory that Ankara now controls.
Information about Armenian temples and monuments in modern Turkey began to be deleted from school history textbooks, and many toponyms began to be translated into the Turkic manner. Another important step was the actual abandonment of the struggle for recognition of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire. Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said bluntly that the priorities are completely different now.
There are also many symbolic gestures. Thus, the Armenian authorities stopped calling Ararat the highest point of the country. Instead, Nikol Pashinyan hung an image of Mount Aragats in his office, which is located inside the republic. The change of the country's coat of arms, which depicts Ararat, is also being discussed.
Finally, in February 2023, Armenia was one of the first to send humanitarian aid to Turkey when a strong earthquake struck there. Last summer, Yerevan recognized the independence of Palestine. The decision followed a telephone conversation between Pashinyan and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, amid tensions between Turkey and Israel over the situation in the Gaza Strip.
As a result, contacts between the two countries have noticeably intensified. Pashinyan and Erdogan held several face-to-face meetings, and in June of this year, the Armenian leader visited Istanbul for the first time in history. The foreign ministers of the two countries also established personal interaction, Ararat Mirzoyan also flew to Turkey. Finally, the format of special representatives was created, who have already held five rounds of negotiations.
However, there are few practical results of all this rapid activity. For example, for several years, the opening of the border has been discussed, at least for third-country nationals and holders of diplomatic passports, but the issue has not yet been resolved. Ankara constantly emphasizes that Yerevan must first sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, and then bilateral relations will be unblocked. In addition, President Erdogan insists on opening the Zangezur Corridor, a road from Azerbaijan to Turkey through southern Armenia.
Progress was made on both issues in August this year. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan initialed the text of the peace treaty at a meeting in Washington, and Yerevan also pledged to cooperate with the United States and other countries to implement the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) transport project.
It would seem that progress can be expected now, but after the Washington meeting, new disagreements arose. Representatives of Turkey and Azerbaijan continue to use the term "Zangezur Corridor". The representatives of Pashinyan's team do not like this very much, who say that they only agreed to the construction of the "Trump road", which should be built together with the general unblocking of communications in the region.
What the experts say
Alexander Krylov, Chief Researcher at the Caucasus Sector of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that there will be no breakthrough during the current negotiations.
— Turkey supports Azerbaijan in its confrontation with Armenia. Ankara says bluntly that there will be no normalization until Yerevan and Baku settle their relations and sign a peace treaty. To do this, Armenia needs to carry out a constitutional reform, which, apparently, will not happen before 2027. Accordingly, only some cosmetic solutions are possible now, but no more," he explains.
Armenian political analyst Hrant Mikaelian also says that breakthroughs are unlikely.
— I think some interim solutions are possible during the current meeting. For example, they may still open the border for third-country nationals in a test mode. Otherwise, Turkey will raise questions about the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, as well as about the corridor and the formats of its functioning. The Washington meeting, of course, brought the positions closer, but no fundamental decision has been reached on all the agenda items," he notes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»