Split into a group: Armenia and Azerbaijan have taken another step towards peace

On September 1, the OSCE eliminated the Minsk Group, which was engaged in the settlement of the conflict in Karabakh. This is another step towards peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, it is far from a final solution to all issues, at least Yerevan has yet to change its constitution. Izvestia investigated the situation.

The cart is ahead of the horse

The OSCE Minsk Group has been active since 1992, co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States, while Armenia and Azerbaijan participated as permanent members, assisted by several other European countries. The main goal of this format was the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

In Azerbaijan, this structure was constantly criticized for its incapacity, its tendency to endless meetings and negotiations without real results. In addition, it was believed that the group was determined to preserve the status quo that had developed after the war of the 1990s, under which Baku did not control Karabakh. Additional difficulties arose due to the conflict between Russia and the West, due to which the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs actually stopped interacting.

As a result, Azerbaijan forcibly established control over the Karabakh region in 2020-2023, and immediately after that raised the issue of disbanding the negotiation format. In January of this year, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, stated that the Minsk Group had lost the subject of its activities, and therefore its abolition would be a logical and obvious step.

At the same time, Armenia has long said that they are ready to eliminate the structure, but only after signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. "In the context of peace, we believe that such a decision is possible. The problem here is timing, because in my understanding, in any case, you don't need to put the cart before the horse," Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan explained.

In August of this year, it became clear that Yerevan had softened its position. On August 8, in Washington, with the mediation of Donald Trump, the leaders of the two countries initialed, but did not sign, a peace agreement. Three days later, the Azerbaijani and Armenian Foreign Ministries appealed to the OSCE to dissolve the Minsk Group. "We call on all member states of the organization to take this decision," the statement said.

"The balance of power is in our favor"

Azerbaijan emphasizes that the dissolution of the Minsk Group without signing a peace treaty was a diplomatic success. The country's Foreign Minister, Jeyhun Bayramov, explained at a government meeting that the MG had not actually been functioning for a long time. "Our country has openly stated that the Karabakh issue is an internal matter of Azerbaijan," he said, adding that for a long time the main obstacle to normalization of relations was Armenia's "rapid armament."

At the same time, not everyone in Yerevan liked the decision to disband. The Committee for the Protection of the Rights of the People of Artsakh (Karabakh) issued a statement calling for the preservation of the Minsk Group and for the return of Armenians to the abandoned region. Former Speaker of the National Assembly of Artsakh Ashot Danielyan also noted that the elimination of the negotiation format "will consolidate injustice and make a real lasting peace even more unattainable."

All these appeals, however, remained unanswered. The OSCE press service noted that after receiving the statement from Armenia and Azerbaijan, consultations were held with the participating states of the organization. As a result of this process, the draft resolution on the closure of the MG was submitted for approval. It was approved by "tacit consent" before September 1 — not a single state opposed it. The organizational and technical structures associated with the abolished format will be eliminated by December 1.

However, the problems in the relations between the two countries do not end there. At least one more requirement remains on the agenda — to amend the Armenian constitution. Baku has repeatedly stressed that the preamble of the document contains indirect claims against Karabakh, and the Azerbaijani side considers these formulations dangerous for the future coexistence of the two countries.

In Armenia, they say that a constitutional referendum may be held in 2027. "We are currently working on a new text, and when it is ready, we will, most likely, put it to a public vote. But this has nothing to do with this parallel process [the signing of a peace treaty], although from a strategic point of view it may have an impact on this process," Nikol Pashinyan explained.

Interestingly, it is already being said in Armenia that the situation in the country and the region has completely changed. According to Pashinyan, Armenians have lived in conditions of armed conflict or in a situation of "neither war nor peace" since the first independence Day, but now we are talking about a full-fledged peace. Yerevan also expects that it will no longer have to spend huge amounts on defense, and there is no increase in expenditures for the corresponding item in the budget for next year.

At the same time, Azerbaijan believes that the republic should continue to increase its military power in the event of a new armed conflict. According to President Aliyev, if any new forces come to power in Armenia that challenge the agreements reached, Baku will "respond appropriately." "The balance of power in the region is absolutely in our favor in all respects," he stressed in a recent interview.

What the experts say

Armenian political scientist Hrant Mikaelian calls the liquidation of the Minsk Group a mistake by the Pashinyan government.

— Azerbaijan simply receives unilateral gifts, giving nothing in return and guaranteeing nothing. This is an attempt to appease the aggressor, which in fact will only provoke him. Aliev continues to speak out with radical rhetoric, constantly threatening the Armenian statehood, and there have been no fewer such statements since the meeting in Washington. I also note that the European mission, which operates in the border area of Armenia, has announced that it will continue to monitor the situation, meaning they do not expect the conflict to end," he emphasizes.

Azerbaijani political scientist Ilgar Velizade calls the liquidation of the OSCE Minsk Group an important step towards peace.

— The Minsk Group has never been particularly effective, and in recent years it has not actually functioned due to disagreements between Russia and Western participants. Now it has already become a vestige of a past era, Baku and Yerevan did not need an intermediary, our countries were able to establish an effective bilateral dialogue. Yes, there are still unresolved issues in the relationship, first of all, I am talking about changing the Armenian constitution. It is clear that there are no quick solutions here, but if progress can be made here, then peace will become inevitable," he explains.