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- Betting on growth: why the assets of retail investors in brokerage accounts have increased
Betting on growth: why the assets of retail investors in brokerage accounts have increased
The assets of retail investors in brokerage accounts increased by 17%, to 11 trillion rubles. This was made possible by the influx of new money and an increase in the value of bonds. The latter was facilitated by the Central Bank's move to lower the key rate and the downward trend in deposit rates, experts say. How the structure of investments has changed is in the Izvestia material.
The Central Bank has calculated how many people trade on the Moscow Stock Exchange
According to the results of the second quarter of 2025, the number of unique customers registered on the Moscow Stock Exchange increased to 37.2 million people and amounted to 49% of the economically active population of the country. This is stated in the "Review of key broker indicators for the second quarter of 2025", presented by the Bank of Russia.
At the same time, the geopolitical background and the decrease in the volatility of the ruble exchange rate led to a cooling of client activity in the stock and foreign exchange markets after a surge in the previous quarter. In the period from April to June 2025, transactions on the Moscow Stock Exchange market were concluded by an average of 3.6 million people per month. There are 0.08 million people in the foreign exchange market. Turnover in the interests of individuals on the stock exchange market amounted to 15 trillion rubles per quarter.
A significant inflow of funds to accounts and an increase in the value of bonds contributed to an increase in the volume of portfolios of retail investors, despite a slight negative revaluation of stocks and foreign currency assets. The total value of individuals' assets in brokerage services, including securities, cash and claims less liabilities, including in individual investment accounts, amounted to 11 trillion rubles in the second quarter. About 10.3 trillion rubles of this amount accounted for securities. Another 0.4 trillion rubles will be spent on funds in rubles and foreign currency.
Net contributions from retail investors amounted to 574 billion rubles. This is almost twice as much as a year earlier, according to the document. This situation has developed against the background of lower deposit rates and market expectations of further easing of monetary policy. At the same time, the share of income from unqualified investors increased. In turn, the share of qualified investors in deposits decreased from 81% to 67% in the quarter. The average size of a brokerage account for resident individuals remained virtually unchanged over the quarter and amounted to 2.2 million rubles.
But the structure of investments has changed slightly, the regulator clarifies. Expectations of monetary policy easing and lower deposit rates contributed to an increase in net inflows of customer funds into Russian bonds. Their share has grown to 35%, which is the highest value since the end of 2020. In anticipation of softening rates, investors preferred to lock in high yields on long-term federal loan bonds (OFZ) and medium-term corporate bonds.
In the second quarter of 2025, resident bonds worth 90 billion rubles were repaid in the portfolios of individuals. At the same time, bonds worth 401 billion rubles were purchased on the stock market. Investments in long-term OFZs purchased on the secondary market and medium-term bonds of non-financial companies, purchased mainly on placements, grew the most.
Meanwhile, the high demand of retail investors for corporate bonds is associated with the additional yield that they could receive in comparison with the yield of OFZ. Issuers from the construction industry, electric power industry, precious metals mining, chemical and petrochemical industries were in the greatest demand.
The share of Russian shares in the portfolio of individuals in brokerage services, in turn, decreased to 28%. This is the minimum since the end of 2022. This situation was caused by a decrease in the value of shares and the sale of securities on the over-the-counter market. At the same time, purchases of shares on the stock market exceeded sales: mainly, retail investors purchased securities from individual issuers in anticipation of dividends. However, in the over-the-counter market, some investors sold shares of companies registered in Russia as a result of redomicilation.
The shares accounted for an increase to 16%, of which 9% were shares of money market exchange—traded funds. Investments in closed-end real estate funds and exchange-traded currency bond funds have also increased.
The editorial board of Izvestia sent a request to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. No response has been received at the time of publication.
A popular tool
The growth of retail investors' assets to 11 trillion rubles in the second quarter was driven by two factors at once — a net inflow of funds and a revaluation of bonds, explains Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform. Lower deposit rates and expectations of further monetary easing stimulated the flow of savings into brokerage accounts, and a drop in required yields supported the prices of securities already purchased.
In the first half of 2025, the trend formed in the second half of 2024 continued, Dmitry Lesnov, Deputy General Director for Brokerage Business at Finam, draws attention. We are talking about the inflow of funds into money market funds, as well as bonds.
The Central Bank's move to lower the key rate and the downward trend in deposit rates are contributing to the growing demand for bonds, said Albert Koroyev, head of the Stock Market Experts department at BCS World Investments. On July 25, the key rate was reduced by 200 basis points to 18%, Denis Astafyev recalls. Banks then lowered their annual deposit yields to 14-17%. The market expects further movement towards 12-14%.
— In the scenario of normalization of the external background, including the "peaceful" one, the compression of the geopolitical premium reduces the cost of capital, reduces the required bond yields and supports stock multipliers. At the same time, the ruble becomes less volatile, imports become cheaper, which creates a disinflationary background and increases the likelihood of a reduction in the key rate to 12-13% in 2026, the expert clarifies.
In the context of easing monetary policy rigidity, the price of bonds reacts first, says Lesnov. For the first time this year, the key rate was lowered in June, but bond growth began at the end of May in anticipation of such a decision, Koroev said.
The RGBI government bond index rose by about 9%, reaching one-and-a-half-year highs, says Olga Nikolaeva, senior bond analyst at SOLID Broker. The growth of the Moscow Exchange index for government and corporate bonds has increased the attractiveness of this sector for investors, says Mikhail Tkachenko, head of investment practice at the vvCube consulting group. This situation has contributed to the influx of new investments.
OFZs have become the most profitable this year. In the next place were high-quality corporate ruble bonds and gold, adds Nikolaeva.
At the same time, banks began to actively reduce deposit rates, especially on deposits with a maturity of a year or more, the Izvestia interlocutor believes. Deposit rates peaked back in December and have since lost 3-4% by the end of the second quarter, Koroev said.
— However, depositors managed to receive a record amount of interest on high—yield deposits last year, which increased the total amount of savings, - explains Nikolaeva.
There were also large flows from exchange-traded money market mutual funds, which were one of the most popular instruments during the period of rising lending costs in the economy last year, she says. The outflow from equity funds is also noted due to the continuing high geopolitical tensions.
When determining the optimal investment structure, investors assessed the recent dynamics and prospects of various asset groups, the expert says.
— The stock market has not been able to demonstrate significant success due to high interest rates, sanctions threats, the growing tax burden and the general slowdown in the economy. And a number of instruments are still unavailable to investors since 2022," the analyst notes.
No change
The inflow of funds from retail investors in the second half of the year is likely to continue, admits Olga Nikolaeva. New arrivals are also possible after the summer dividend season.
"It is likely that investors will increase their interest in the stock market, but there remains great uncertainty due to the geopolitical factor," the expert predicts.
Against the background of expectations of the traditional gradual weakening of the ruble in the second half of the year, there may be an increase in interest in quasi-currency bonds, the Izvestia interlocutor suggests. This segment has been actively developing since the beginning of 2025 and can offer various investment opportunities both in terms of maturity dates, currency selection and credit quality.
In addition, this year Russian investors have access to financial instruments linked to cryptocurrencies, Mikhail Tkachenko recalls. However, interest in them remains restrained. However, it is possible that the attractiveness of this segment of the investment portfolio will become higher in the second half of the year.
In the second half of the year, brokers are highly likely to record steady retail demand for debt instruments and funds while maintaining active trading, Denis Astafyev believes.
— Already in July, the turnover of shares and units on the stock exchange amounted to about 3.2 trillion rubles, in bonds — 4.2 trillion rubles. The potential migration of even 5-10% of deposits (out of a volume of about 60 trillion rubles) means additional demand for 3-6 trillion rubles, comparable to the monthly turnover of the entire stock segment, the expert explains. According to him, this will support the turnover and commission income of market participants.
Otherwise, serious changes in the brokerage market cannot be expected, Dmitry Lesnov points out. The trend that was observed in the first half of 2025 will continue — the influx of assets into brokerage accounts, the gradual transfer of assets from money market funds and bonds to the stock market, the attractiveness of which will be affected by the reduction in the key interest rate.
The main risk is the rapid unfreezing of non—resident assets: their exit may put pressure on quotes and increase volatility, Astafyev warns. This risk is moderate in the OFZ segment, but it is significantly higher in stocks.
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