The expert called the current deposit rates beneficial for Russians

For the first time in a long time, deposit rates remained unchanged from 1 to 4 August. This was announced by the financial marketplace Finuslugi. Georgy Ostapkovich, research director of the HSE Center for Market Research, explained in an interview with Izvestia on August 6 that such a pause was expected, since banks adjust rates depending on the Central Bank's key rate, rather than changing them daily.

According to him, credit institutions have taken a break until the next meeting of the Central Bank, carefully observing the rhetoric of its leadership, including the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, as well as the statements of the president and Prime Minister. In addition, banks take into account the geopolitical situation, including the actions of foreign politicians such as American leader Donald Trump.

Ostapkovich noted that the current level of the key interest rate (18%) remains high for the economy, since the real sector is not able to recoup even such percentages. In his opinion, a significant revival of investment activity is possible only if the rate is reduced to 10-12%.

"For the economy, reducing the key from 21% to 18% does not matter in principle, anyway, for the market, 18% is actually a prohibitive rate, because this is the key rate of the Central Bank, and the bank is finishing off another 5-6 or 7%, that is, it is somewhere in the region of 24-25%, and we have an average The economic profitability level in Russia is 12%, that is, most enterprises cannot even beat off the 18% rate," the specialist explained.

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Banks warned of a further decline in deposit yields by the end of the year

The expert also commented on the seasonal decrease in inflation associated with the harvest of domestic agricultural producers, but warned that prices could rise again in the fall due to an increase in the share of imports. Under these conditions, the Central Bank is likely to continue its cautious policy, but by the end of the year the key rate may drop to 14-16%.

As for depositors, Ostapkovich stressed that even at current rates (about 15%), deposits remain profitable, as they exceed inflation by almost half. However, more qualified investors may consider alternative instruments such as federal loan bonds (OFZ) or corporate bonds, although they require active management.

"If the key interest rate falls, then deposit rates will also fall, but loan rates will also fall, meaning people can take out loans and buy much cheaper goods due to falling loans. But keep in mind, even the current rate, relatively speaking, some banks put 15% there, is twice as much as inflation," Ostapkovich said.

Plus Development told Izvestia on August 6 that housing prices in Moscow could rise by 15-20% by 2027 amid a decrease in the number of new projects. The fact is that today the high key rate of the Central Bank limits demand and forces developers to be cautious with new projects.

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