Who's new: the stakes are going down

The average maximum interest rate on ruble deposits will continue to decline until the end of the year, analysts at major financial institutions are confident. After the Bank of Russia begins easing monetary policy, deposit yields may drop to 12-14% by the end of this year. Despite this, experts emphasize that deposits remain attractive against the background of real positive returns and remain a key savings tool. The details are in the Izvestia article.

What banks say

"Banks lowered deposit rates quite sharply after the meeting of the Bank of Russia, at which the regulator immediately lowered the key rate by 2 percentage points and updated the forecast for the rate at the end of the year to 15-16%," Dmitry Gritskevich, head of banking and financial Market Analysis at the PSB, told Izvestia.

He noted that the regulator also lowered the forecast for the key rate for 2026 to 12-13%, which indicates the Central Bank's confidence in the effectiveness of its anti-inflationary policy. "As a result, by the end of this year, the average maximum deposit rate in the banking market may drop to 14%," Dmitry Gritskevich estimated.

According to the Central Bank, in the third decade of July, the average maximum deposit rate dropped to 16.44%, and for a period of six months to a year — to 15.39%. This reflects the rapid reaction of the financial sector to the reduction in the key interest rate. In the current conditions, according to Gritskevich, citizens still have the opportunity to fix a high deposit rate for 1-1.5 years before the yield decreases even more.

Sovcombank gave a similar assessment. "According to our estimates, the Bank of Russia will continue to ease monetary policy, gradually reducing the key rate to 14% by the end of the year," said Anna Zemlyanova, the bank's chief analyst.

She believes that this will help reduce deposit rates to 12-13%. According to Anna Zemlyanova, now there is a good opportunity to fix attractive deposit rates for a long time. At the same time, there may be a shift in the structure of demand. "Most likely, we may see a flow of funds from short deposits to longer ones," she said.

Why are deposits still attractive?

Despite the decline in nominal yields, the savings behavior of Russians is unlikely to change. As Sberbank's press service told Izvestia, "the real interest rate remains high, and while deposits provide a significant premium to inflation, they remain the main savings tool for most customers." The bank noted that the savings model of behavior remains and will remain stable.

Valery Piven, Director of Bank Ratings at ACRA, stressed that the dynamics of deposits will largely depend on credit activity.

— The dynamics of deposits by the end of the year will primarily depend on changes in the key interest rate and related changes in demand for loans. This, in turn, will determine the demand of banks for financial resources and the profitability of deposits," he says.

Investing in bonds instead of deposits

Lowering interest rates will lead to a redistribution of savings, Alexander Abramov, head of the Laboratory for the Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets at the Presidential Academy, said in an interview with Izvestia.

— As long as the nominal return on deposits is significantly higher than the inflation rate, bank deposits will remain attractive to the public. However, I do not share the optimism that the funds will remain in deposits — they will move into stock market instruments," he is sure.

The expert recalled that with a gradual decrease in inflation to 7% by the end of the year, the key interest rate will also decrease. Under these conditions, bonds issued by highly reliable issuers, both government and corporate, will become more attractive.:

— The profitability of exchange-traded bond funds will also grow due to the fact that when the key rate is lowered, the market value of the package owned by the exchange-traded fund increases. In other words, some of the money will probably switch from deposits to bonds," says Alexander Abramov.

Stocks remain out of the focus of private investors for now.

— This is hindered by sanctions, declining incomes of many Russian corporations and a rather unstable investment climate in the country. Therefore, in the near future, I see some increased competition between bank deposits, bonds and bond funds," says an expert from the Presidential Academy.

Will there be a refusal of deposits

According to Yulia Makarenko, Deputy director of the Banking Development Institute, the current reduction in interest rates on deposits is not a reason to abandon this instrument, especially for a mass investor.

— Do not forget that the deposit is still one of the most accessible and understandable financial instruments. For a significant part of the population, this is not only a way to save money, but also an opportunity to avoid investment risks. The level of financial literacy in the country is growing, but not everyone is ready to work independently with the bond market, especially with stocks. Therefore, it is premature to talk about a mass exodus of depositors from deposits," she stressed in an interview with Izvestia.

The expert recalled that during periods of high uncertainty, especially when inflation expectations remain unstable, the population prefers instruments with guaranteed returns.

— As long as the real return on deposits is positive, and the government insures deposits of up to 1.4 million rubles, this mechanism will remain the main one for most households. Even if rates drop to 12%, with inflation at 6-7%, this is still a good result. Moreover, in the structure of savings, not only income is increasingly important, but also reliability, accessibility and the ability to quickly return funds," the expert summarizes.