Bitcoin straightened its shoulders: cryptocurrencies are growing despite the tariff war

The bitcoin exchange rate has reached another historical high, surpassing the mark of $ 120 thousand. Since the beginning of the month, the cryptocurrency has added more than 13% to its value, and over the past three months it has grown more than one and a half times. At the same time, bitcoin grew against a negative background, the main event of which was the deepening of the tariff war between the United States and most of the rest of the world. Izvestia investigated whether bitcoin is becoming a "safe haven" for investors and a substitute for gold in the face of difficulties for almost all fiat currencies.

The clarity of genius

On Monday, July 14, the most popular cryptocurrency immediately soared by 3.4% to $ 123 thousand, after that it lost a little in price. It is impossible to speak about the exclusivity of this jump yet, but it occurred against the background of stable growth in the last few weeks. In general, bitcoin, whose exchange rate was extremely volatile in previous years, has now changed its trajectory. At the end of 2024, an unprecedented leap occurred against the background of the election of US President Donald Trump, a great friend of the cryptocurrency industry, after which bitcoin fluctuated around the $100 thousand mark.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Yulia Khramtsova

A new leap has now occurred in the context of the American bills that will be considered this week. We are talking about two bills with eloquent names CLARITY ("clarity") and GENIUS ("genius"). The first one is designed to divide all crypto assets into those that will be handled by the Securities and Exchange Commission and those that will be managed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The second, in turn, will regulate the legal status of stablecoins, cryptocurrencies pegged to the US dollar. All this should, according to the plan of the US legislators, improve the position of the "crypt" in the legal field and, accordingly, make it a more reliable asset. In addition, Congress will consider a ban on the creation of a cryptocurrency managed by the Fed.

That is, according to optimists, bitcoin, after being introduced into the legal field, will become less and less a speculative asset and more and more a reliable, rare resource designed to hedge risks associated with fiat currencies. That is, to play the role that gold is currently playing. The latter, like bitcoin, is available in limited quantities and, due to its rarity, can protect against inflation, the threat of which remains relevant.

Hyperactive: the bitcoin exchange rate may reach $130 thousand in the coming months

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Is Bitcoin the most promising?

What is interesting in the context of recent months is that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been growing against the background of rather gloomy news regarding the global economy. We are talking about tariff wars that are not going down in any way. The United States has reached a preliminary agreement with China and Vietnam, so the most pressing threat has seemingly subsided. However, in reality, the world has found itself in a new reality, when significant duties on most types of products are already an inevitable fact. You can only discuss the specific size and rates of tariffs.

US President Donald Trump

Photo: RIA Novosti/Stringer

At the same time, a very complex negotiation process is unfolding between the United States on the one hand, Brazil, the EU, Japan and South Korea on the other. New tariffs may also be imposed against Canada. The most likely scenario would be to reach some kind of agreement, but international duty-free trade (which was the absolute norm a few years ago) is likely to have to be forgotten. The increase in duties may have the effect of accelerating inflation and, more likely, slowing economic growth worldwide and even a recession. However, this may force central banks to open their printing presses and thus provoke a round of inflation.

Normally, such concerns played against bitcoin. But this time everything looks different — since April, the most popular cryptocurrency has risen in price by one and a half times. Many market participants expressed the following concerns: a tariff crisis could lead to a simultaneous weakening of all key currencies, or at least most of them. And in this case, alternative assets get chances, among which bitcoin is the most promising. How likely is this scenario?

It's a long way to gold

As Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam Financial Group, noted in an interview with Izvestia, it is not entirely correct to compare bitcoin and gold.

— The catalyst for the rise in the price of bitcoin, apparently, is the increased demand for crypto from institutional investors, rather than retail traders. There is a significant net inflow of capital into American exchange-traded bitcoin funds (ETFs). This week, the US Congress will consider three major bills on cryptocurrencies. The declared goal is quite ambitious — to make the United States the world center of crypto innovations. In addition, it was reported that Trump's company plans to launch its own ETF fund," the expert recalled.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Sergey Lantyukhov

According to him, the daily chart of bitcoin shows that the world's key cryptocurrency continues to move upward within its medium-term uptrend.

— Its upper limit is now visible in the region of $ 125 thousand. After that, we expect consolidation or a local price correction, which should not lead to a trend break. If the 125,000 level is broken, the chances of reaching $140,000 will increase," the analyst concluded.

In turn, Stanislav Chernukhin, the founder of the Polygant fintech company, believes that the matter is precisely the weakening of the dollar.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Eduard Kornienko

— A similar trend is observed in relation to the US stock market, which is also growing rapidly. In my opinion, the main reason is the weakening dollar, whose index has lost more than 10% since the beginning of the year. I think that's why investors have become more active in investing in cryptocurrencies and stocks," the source told Izvestia.

As for the trade wars, according to him, they can only indirectly affect the bitcoin exchange rate. If, as a result of the actions of the current US administration, the dollar significantly strengthens its position, cryptocurrency prices may slow down or even reverse.

Thus, it is too early to talk about a fundamental change in the trend. Although cryptocurrencies have shown a fairly high resistance to various market shocks in the long term (while still remaining one of the most volatile assets at the moment), it is still too early to consider them a full-fledged "safe haven". Their fundamental problems have not yet been solved and it is not a fact that they will ever be solved at all, since they are not technical (for example, it is not a fact that the absence of some kind of regulator in the same bitcoin is its advantage). At the same time, as an interesting option for investing funds, "crypta" will almost certainly remain in the foreseeable future.