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- In the zone of approach: the number of supporters of the resumption of dialogue with the Russian Federation is growing in Europe
In the zone of approach: the number of supporters of the resumption of dialogue with the Russian Federation is growing in Europe
Support for direct negotiations with Russia is increasing in Europe. There are more and more "sober voices" in Germany and other EU countries who understand that the lack of dialogue with Russia contradicts their own interests, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia. Earlier, the presidents of Russia and France had their first conversation in 2.5 years. The presidents of Slovenia and Slovakia are calling for dialogue with Moscow, and Austria is proposing to restore purchases of Russian gas after the end of the conflict in Ukraine. The expected increase in military spending by NATO countries to 5% of GDP will also strengthen the position of supporters of dialogue — additional spending will be withdrawn from taxpayers' pockets, which will certainly affect the election results. The question of whether the EU can take real steps to restore relations with the Russian Federation is in the Izvestia article.
Who in the EU supports dialogue with Russia
Moscow is registering an increase in the number of supporters in Europe of resuming dialogue with Russia, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Izvestia.
— Unfortunately, today we see that the policy of the European Union is determined by an aggressive majority. But at the same time, we are detecting more and more sober voices, and this is reflected not only in the statements of politicians, but also at the level of political parties. We see that many political forces in Europe in various countries, including, for example, in Germany, are well aware that the lack of dialogue with Russia contradicts the interests of these countries and worsens the security situation," the diplomat said.
These political forces proceed from the fact that NATO and the EU are not an island, we are a common continent. And reliable security cannot be built not only against Russia, which is counterproductive, but also without Russia. We need to return to mechanisms that would allow us to move forward and create a more peaceful Europe without falling into an arms race. We went through all this during the Cold War, and there are still people who remember the lessons and would not like to repeat them, Grushko stressed.
Recall that after the Donald Trump administration came to power in the United States, Washington and Moscow returned to dialogue, not only on Ukraine, but also on other global issues. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have already held six telephone conversations since February. The parties are also negotiating to eliminate irritants in bilateral relations. Earlier, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in an interview with Izvestia that Russia and the United States had achieved success in this area.
On the contrary, the EU initially preferred to speak with Russia in the language of ultimatums and sanctions: since the beginning of the year, the 16th and 17th packages of restrictions have been adopted, and the 18th is next. Also in May, the leaders of Germany, Britain, France and Poland came to Kiev, where they demanded that Russia agree to a 30-day truce. These countries have also created a "coalition of the willing" — an association of states that are ready to continue supporting Ukraine even without the participation of the United States.
However, the situation is changing. A vivid proof of this is the call from French President Emmanuel Macron to Vladimir Putin on July 1. The heads of state spoke for the first time since September 2022. The Kremlin reported that the politicians discussed the situation in the Middle East and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Macron himself then called this conversation "important for France."
The discussion is also developing in Germany. In early June, prominent politicians from the SPD, which is part of the ruling coalition, signed a manifesto calling for Berlin to begin negotiations with Moscow and abandon plans to deploy American missiles in Germany in 2026. According to the signatories of the manifesto, in Germany and in most European countries, "forces have prevailed that are looking for the future primarily in a strategy of military confrontation and hundreds of billions of euros for rearmament." And the co-chairman of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Tino Cavalla, called on Chancellor Friedrich Merz to hold talks with Vladimir Putin.
In France, they assess the situation in geopolitics quite soberly, realizing that sooner or later they will have to have a dialogue with Russia, German political scientist Alexander Rahr told Izvestia. According to him, Paris always has a realpolitik approach more often than Berlin.
— The Germans still believe that they will convince everyone and find the last forces to support Ukraine. Perhaps in the near future this position will be shaky, but now Germany is assuming leadership, and its main denominator is the containment of Russia," the expert stressed.
The most anti-Russian position is taken by the countries of Northern Europe and the United Kingdom. They are one of the largest donors to Kiev. So, since February 2022, the United Kingdom has provided Ukraine with a total of more than €15 billion, Denmark — €7.6 billion, Sweden — about €7 billion, according to the Kiel Institute of World Economy. In relative terms, Estonia leads the way, allocating 2.34% of its GDP to Kiev.
Strengthening the opponents of the militarization of Europe
At the same time, the political landscape in the EU countries is changing. The right-wing forces, which are focused on national interests and strengthening Europe's independence from the United States, are strengthening their positions, among other things, due to the growth of military spending. In June, at the NATO summit in The Hague, it was decided to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.
The NATO Summit in The Hague
Today, the total military budgets of the alliance's members amount to $1.5 trillion, and if they reach the ceiling of 5% of GDP, spending could increase by about $1 trillion more. Today, 32 NATO countries account for 55% of global military spending. NATO understands that additional expenses will be withdrawn from taxpayers' pockets. This prospect cannot but worry responsible politicians, said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko.
— All this will drain the economy and negatively affect the situation of the working people. And if the parties rely on the relevant segments of society, of course, they begin to think about it one way or another. We hear these voices. But I would like to emphasize once again that in conditions of suffocating Russophobia, where all the hatches are battened down, these voices sound muffled. However, they do exist," the Russian diplomat noted.
Militarization and an increase in defense spending to 5% of GDP may lead to a sharp rejection in European society, says Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai International discussion club.
— If we assume that these countries will take the issue seriously and try to increase spending to 5% of GDP in 10 years, then the socio-political consequences will be very serious. Most likely, this will dramatically strengthen the right—wing populists and various surprises are possible - government crises, early elections. And then I think that the next coalition in Germany will include the Alternative for Germany," he told Izvestia.
The positions of the right in France and Germany continue to strengthen. The Alternative for Germany party increased its support from 12.6% in 2017 to 20.8% in 2025, taking second place in the last parliamentary elections. Moreover, the AfD's rating continues to grow: now it stands at about 23-24%, lagging behind the ruling CDU/CSU bloc by only 4-7%.
The head of the National Unification Party, Jordan Bardella, and the head of its parliamentary faction, Marine Le Pen, are confidently leading among potential candidates for the French presidential election in 2027, according to a study by Ifop and Fiducial for the Figaro newspaper. The support of the right has reached almost a third of voters, which gives them a real chance to lead the Fifth Republic.
Eastern Europe calls for talks with Moscow
The countries of Eastern Europe express the most votes in favor of dialogue with Russia. The heads of government of Hungary and Slovakia, Viktor Orban and Robert Fico, oppose the supply of military aid to Ukraine and the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions. In particular, Bratislava is currently blocking the adoption of the 18th package of restrictions, demanding guarantees in exchange for continued Russian gas supplies to the EU.
Hungary and Slovakia also advocate dialogue with Russia, as Viktor Orban demonstrated during his presidency of the EU Council when he visited Moscow on a "peacekeeping mission" in Ukraine. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico also visited Moscow in December 2024, where he was received by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Slovak President Peter Pellegrini also supported the need for dialogue with Russia. He called for leaders to be found who would start this process on behalf of the European Union. As a possible example, Pellegrini cited Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who had previously also offered her mediation services.
At the end of May, Slovenian President Natasha Pirc-Musar said that the resumption of direct negotiations with Moscow was necessary for Europe. According to Pirz-Musar, the EU should assemble a group of "wise men and women" to carry out "quiet diplomacy", which will be the first step towards restoring direct contacts. According to the President of Slovenia, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has already informed her about the relevant plans of Brussels. However, so far the EC has not openly announced its intentions to start negotiations with Russia.
Austria is also showing interest in cooperation with the Russian Federation. Although Vienna announced last year that it would stop purchasing Russian fuel, the country's energy ministry believes that the European Union should be ready to reconsider its refusal to import Russian gas after the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, the Financial Times newspaper reported earlier.
The countries of Eastern and Central Europe are interested in dialogue with Russia for two main reasons. Firstly, they depend on the supply of piped Russian gas and oil, as they have no access to the sea. Secondly, there is strong opposition to Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO, due to the understanding that Kiev's admission to the alliance will lead to a direct clash with Russia and increase their own military spending.
We should not forget about Ukraine's conflicts over historical memory with Poland, the issues of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia and the termination of gas transit through Ukraine, which harmed Slovakia. The "Trump factor" also has an impact. Seeing his desire for dialogue with Russia, the doubters are more active, says Oleg Karpovich, Vice-rector of the Diplomatic Academy.
— Gradually, following the example of Trump, other leaders of the collapsed anti-Russian coalition will follow this path. Of course, during this time we have established particularly warm contacts with the ideologically and pragmatically minded leaders of Hungary and Slovakia who are close to Russia," he told Izvestia.
The expert concluded that in the future it will not be limited to the countries of Eastern Europe. In the context of a change in US policy, Russophobic hysteria will give way to a realistic and practically oriented view of the future of European security.
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