Something is wrong: the presidency of the Council of the EU passes to Denmark
After Poland, on July 1, the presidency of the EU Council passes to Denmark. Warsaw noted that not all of its plans had been implemented, in particular because of Budapest's position opposing anti-Russian sanctions and blocking pro-Ukrainian initiatives. Copenhagen faces the challenge of curbing illegal migration and normalizing relations with the United States, despite disputes over Greenland and trade duties. What to expect from Denmark's EU presidency is in the Izvestia article.
Copenhagen's proposals
"The EU is facing a new international order characterized by uncertainty, global strategic and economic competition, and an increasing number of conflicts, so by 2030 the EU must be able to defend itself," says the slogan of the Danish presidency of the Council of the European Union.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen calls the "rearmament of Europe" as the main priority of the Copenhagen presidency.
Denmark achieved its exclusion from the Common Security and Defense Policy of the European Union in 1993 with the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty, but on June 1, 2022, in a referendum, it canceled this refusal and began participating in EU defense operations on July 1, 2022. The kingdom also withdrew from the so-called informal "lean four" coalition, which also included Sweden, the Netherlands and Austria. The countries opposed the expansion of budget spending in Brussels, but have recently begun to change their position.
The second main theme of Denmark's presidency of the EU Council is support for Ukraine. At the NATO summit in The Hague, Fredriksen met with Vladimir Zelensky and discussed the details of plans for joint production of weapons in the kingdom. Thus, Copenhagen will be the first to launch such a project together with Kiev.
Greenland, tariffs, migrants and other issues
Kiev had high hopes for the presidency of Warsaw in 2025, and then Copenhagen, promising citizens to join the European Union. However, it was not possible to achieve any progress on this issue — in February Hungary blocked the start of negotiations with Ukraine.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to coordinate political decision-making at the EU level.
Hungary is supported by the Slovak authorities — because of them, for example, last week it was not possible to adopt the 18th package of anti-Russian sanctions.
In addition, Denmark will have to solve other problems, one of them is building relations with the United States, including finding a compromise on tariffs and Donald Trump's claims to Greenland. The American leader did not even rule out the possibility of using military force to gain control of the island.
Another conflict topic that Denmark will have to face is the restriction of migration. In May, the country's authorities, together with their Italian colleagues, demanded to analyze the correctness of the relevant decision of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) on the interpretation of the European Convention on Human Rights. They were supported by seven other states that believe that the ECHR sided with migrants.
The signatory countries, in turn, insist on simplifying the procedure for the deportation of migrants who have committed crimes, as well as on expanding opportunities to "track criminal foreigners who cannot be deported."
Copenhagen will also insist on promoting the idea of creating special camps outside the EU, where asylum seekers will stay during the application process.
What do the experts think
Scientific Director of the Russian Council on International Affairs (RIAC) Andrey Kortunov, in an interview with Izvestia, noted that Denmark traditionally takes very tough positions towards Russia, associating itself with the Baltic states and Poland.
— This is essentially a single block, as it happened historically. Although I must say that Denmark is also not completely united, there is a fairly popular right—wing populist opposition that takes other positions, so much will depend on the alignment of political forces within the country," the political scientist explained.
According to him, the issue of Greenland is not the least important.
"And it's difficult for Danish politics to make up its mind here, because, on the one hand, Copenhagen has always been consistent, one of the most loyal allies of the United States, and on the other, such demarches from Washington cause both discontent and indignation," the expert added.
He stressed that under certain circumstances, anti-American sentiments may appear in the country.
— Some progress is possible, but I think that if we talk about the Baltic region and Russia, Denmark is unlikely to experiment with any attempts to restore relations with the Russian Federation, show political courage, and put forward any new initiatives. Most likely, Copenhagen will take conservative positions and, in a sense, be the lowest common denominator for the European position," the analyst concluded.
Dmitry Officer-Belsky, head of the Baltic Region Integrated Research Group at the IMEMO RAS, explained in an interview with Izvestia that the role of chairman of the EU Council is not very significant.
— I cannot say that Poland's role in European processes, including those taking place in the Baltic region, has become particularly important during its presidency. I don't think Denmark's importance will be significant either. There is a widespread opinion that the presiding party can at least determine the agenda, but this is a bit of an exaggeration," the expert said.
In his opinion, economic policy is primarily determined by the European Commission, and the security strategy is determined by NATO.
— However, regardless of this, it is very likely that during the period of the Danish presidency there will be an intensification of the processes in which this country is a significant participant. We can consider this as a predictable coincidence," the political scientist notes.
According to the expert, the militarization of the Baltic Sea is now taking rapid steps, and the desire to turn it into a "NATO lake" is not hidden at all.
— The Baltic Sea is certainly a very important space for Denmark, and the country itself is key in ensuring freedom of navigation. Recently, there have been more and more problems with this issue, and the Danish leadership is striving for an interpretation of international norms that would allow it to exert serious pressure on participants in trade with Russia," the expert points out.
According to the analyst, during the Danish presidency, we can expect some progress in this direction.
— We can expect more EU attention to the North Atlantic and the Arctic. It is noteworthy that the United States wants to reorient Denmark to a greater extent in this direction. There is an assumption that the American extravagant gestures with the offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark were intended to provoke Denmark to a more active military presence in the North Atlantic zone," the political scientist explains.
Officers-Belsky noted that there is a rather narrow passage from the Arctic Ocean to the Atlantic — the so-called Faroese-Icelandic border.
"By controlling it, it is possible, for example, in the event of a conflict scenario, to significantly block the exit of the Russian Northern Fleet to the Atlantic, and to make passage extremely dangerous for Russian submarines," the analyst is sure.
The expert believes that, despite the fact that Denmark's attention will be largely focused on the North, it will also be very active in the Baltic.
"After all, regional borders have already been erased between the Baltic and the Arctic, and they potentially represent a single theater of military operations," the analyst concludes.
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