Accumulative model: high deposits hinder car sales
Of the nearly one and a half hundred car brands represented in Russia, only a few companies account for the lion's share of car sales. The decline in demand for cars is uneven: in regions where used models have traditionally been in high demand, there is a gradual increase in interest in new cars. To a large extent, car sales are hampered by high deposit flows. These and other car market trends were discussed at the MarketAuto - 2025 forum. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Five and the rest
Of the more than 130 car brands currently represented on the Russian market, about 80% of the new cars sold belong to five groups of automakers. This was announced by Sergey Tselikov, General Director of the Autostat analytical agency, at the MarketAuto – 2025 forum. These five include AvtoVAZ, Chery Automobile, GWM Company, Geely Holding and Changan Automobile, he said. We are talking about all the sub-brands included in a particular holding, the expert emphasized.
— The most "fertile" is Chery. Every fifth new car is from this family — 20.3%, — said the general director of Autostat.
Sergey Tselikov noted that of all car brands, about 40 car brands are officially represented in our country, which are either manufactured in Russia or supplied through official channels with a full-fledged certification procedure and Vehicle Type Approval (OTT). They have a single distributor and a well-developed network of dealers. The remaining 2/3 of the brands are imported to Russia through alternative supply chains, he stressed. In addition, some brands like Lixiang, Jetta and Mazda, according to the CEO of Autostat, are "on the verge." On the one hand, they have official representative offices in our country, on the other hand, these models are supplied by alternative routes.
Uneven fall
The decline in sales of new cars began in November last year, and according to the results of five months, compared with the same period a year earlier, the drop was 26%, according to Autostat. At the same time, a different picture is observed depending on the region.
For example, in Central Russia and the Northwestern Federal District, the decline in new car sales is generally consistent with the general market trend. The results below the market are shown by the Urals (-29%), the south of the country (-30%) and Siberia (-31%). According to the results of five months, Autostat analysts have observed the largest drop in the car market in the North Caucasus (-34%).
At the same time, sales in the Volga Federal District decreased less than the national average (by 21%). And the most favorable situation with sales of new cars is noted, oddly enough, in the Far East, a region where for many years new cars have not been particularly favored, preferring used right—hand drive cars from Japan. Here, sales decreased by "only" 18%, according to Autostat.
It is not yet possible to call this trend an increase in demand for new cars in the Far East, but there is a trend towards a gradual increase in interest in them in this region, says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine.
— Indeed, the Far East is gradually switching to new cars from the total acquisition of used Japanese cars with right-hand drive. Increasingly, domestic models are being sold there, and recently "Chinese" ones. And if, according to the latter, this is mainly due to the introduction of certain restrictions and prohibitions on the import of cars from Japan, then the interest in domestic models is largely due to more favorable conditions for this region (25% discount versus 20% in other regions, the possibility of purchasing cars for families even with one child with the same 25% discount versus 10% discount for families with two or more children in other regions of the country) preferential car loan programs, — Maxim Kadakov told Izvestia.
Igor Morzharetto, partner of Autostat, agrees with him. He also believes that the main factor that caused sales of new cars in the Far East to drop less than in the whole country was the much more favorable conditions of the government's program to stimulate demand for cars. However, this does not have a significant impact on the overall picture. The expert states that sales of new cars in the Far East are still much lower than in the rest of Russia.
"Waiting" on deposits
Experts cite two main reasons that slow down sales of new cars — their high cost and a high key rate. Moreover, it, in turn, is also characterized by two negative factors for the market. On the one hand, a high "key" leads to the high cost of car loans, which are used to purchase up to half of new cars. On the other hand, a high interest rate leads to an increase in interest on deposits in banks, experts say.
According to Sergey Tselikov, a new category of "waiting people" has appeared on the market — potential buyers of new cars who are postponing the purchase of a car, trying to increase their savings due to high interest rates on deposits.
Russians have gradually become accustomed to the fact that cars have risen significantly in price — this factor is already less deterrent from buying a car, Maxim Kadakov believes. Thus, it is the high key rate that comes to the fore, he notes.
— Its recent decline will not radically change the situation: car loan conditions are still simply unaffordable, and deposits are attractive. A potential buyer does not withdraw money from a bank deposit, expecting income from high interest rates. Thus, a certain part of people expects to "get" the missing amount for a car without resorting to borrowed funds, or subsequently purchase a model of a higher class or level of equipment," he explained the current behavior pattern of potential car buyers.
A significant decrease in sales of new cars has led to a sharp increase in the average car ownership period, according to Autostat. According to Sergey Tselikov, the main increase in this parameter is accounted for by the most massive car brands.
— Realizing that people cannot replace their car, they continue to use it. Over the past three years, the average ownership period for models of massive global brands has increased from 6.4 to 7.4 years," said the CEO of Autostat.
In turn, an increase in car ownership leads to an increase in the already high average age of cars in the Russian fleet, experts say.
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