Gestalt closed: a third of Chinese-made cars are assembled in Russia
By the end of five months, the share of Chinese-made cars produced at Russian enterprises was almost twice as high as in the whole of last year. Against the background of the annual increase in recycling, it is becoming more profitable for Chinese automakers to produce cars in Russia than to import them, experts say. The ratio between imported and localized models will increase with the latter, experts say. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Bigger than ours
Since the beginning of the year, of the more than 240,000 new Chinese-made passenger cars sold in Russia, about 74,000 have been produced in our country. This was announced by Sergey Tselikov, General Director of the analytical agency Autostat. He noted that among all the "Chinese" sold from January to May, the share of Russian-made cars is 30%. Haval has the highest ratio between imported and localized models — 50.8%. Chery is in second place (28.8%), and Jetour is in third place by a wide margin (4.7%). This is followed by BAIC (3.9%), SWM (3.7%) and Kaiyi (2.8%) manufactured in the Kaliningrad region.
— In total, more than 10 Chinese brands are currently assembling cars in Russia, — Sergey Tselikov emphasized.
He told Izvestia that in the first five months of this year, compared with the figures for the whole of last year, the share of Chinese cars assembled in Russia has more than doubled. So, in 2024, the domestic "Chinese" accounted for 16% of sales, and in 2023 they occupied 18% of the market.
The growth is taking place against the background of a sharp reduction in car imports. So, by the end of May, the import of cars to the Russian Federation decreased by 74% at once, while almost two thirds of cars are supplied to us from China.
— They stopped bringing Chery, they only drive through assembly, they brought very few Geely, — said Sergey Tselikov.
New faces
In the near future, a number of more models are expected to appear on the market, the production of which has been established at Russian enterprises. For example, a presentation of serial crossovers of the Tenet brand is planned this month. As Izvestia found out at the beginning of the year, judging by the data on vehicle type approvals published in the Rosstandart database, several Chery models are already well-known to Russian buyers. In addition, in mid-April, AGR, which owns the Tenet brand, patented the Almaas trademark.
Another expected new car brand is Jeland, with Jaecoo models hidden underneath. The production of these crossovers has been established at the former General Motors automobile plant in St. Petersburg.
Market restructuring
The fact that 30% of sales of new Chinese passenger cars already account for Russian—built models is evidence of a deep strategic transformation of the automotive market, says Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto. The trend of switching from imports to the organization of production within the country, even at the initial level, involving the large-scale assembly method, has become noticeable and decisive, she believes.
— A year ago, imports unconditionally dominated, but today localization is becoming the main vector of development. It is caused by a whole range of reasons: increased logistical difficulties and currency risks, which make imports less profitable, as well as the urgent need of the market for more affordable and faster-delivered vehicles. In addition, the long-term plans of the Chinese brands themselves played a role, considering Russia as a key market and ready to invest in production facilities. We should not forget about the general policy of import substitution, which reduces external risks," Irina Frank told Izvestia.
The entry into the market of such initially localized new brands as Tenet and Jeland will not only add volume, but also qualitatively increase the share of cars marked "made in Russia," the expert believes. Government support in the form of potential preferences for localized producers will also play a role in this process, she emphasizes.
The gradual reorientation of Chinese companies from importing to manufacturing cars domestically is an attempt to avoid the inevitable price increases due to the annual indexation of recycling, says Igor Morzharetto, partner at Autostat. However, it is not worth counting on deep localization in the foreseeable future, he notes.
— This requires large production volumes. And against the background of declining sales of new cars, it will be quite difficult to increase them," Igor Morzharetto believes.
Maxim Kadakov, the editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, agrees with him. According to him, in the near future, there is no need to talk about a serious increase in the localization of projects for the assembly of Chinese models in Russia.
— Of course, there are already examples of how native Chinese cars like Haval or brand models created in partnership by companies from China, such as Moskvich or Sollers, are stamped, welded and painted in our country, equipped with localized engines and transmissions. However, new projects are likely to work for a long time using the large—scale assembly method," Maxim Kadakov believes.
All in height!
"Net" imports from China will lose their share in the future for 2-3 years, and their prices will become uncompetitive, says Renat Tyukteev, Deputy General Director for New Car Sales at Avilon AG.
— The transformation of the imported Chery brand into local Tenet is ahead. The Sollers model range is actively expanding, the new Moskvich 8 is being prepared for production at the Moskvich plant, and the Evolute electric brand is making a significant contribution to the overall basket. Haval will continue to expand its product range in Russia. The state sets ambitious goals for local industries, feeding the plants with subsidies for the payment of scrap," he said.
The changed requirements for the level of localization in taxis are also an incentive to organize production, which will significantly increase the share of new cars assembled under special investment contracts, the expert believes. According to his forecast, the share of local production in the total basket of Chinese car sales may grow to 37-38% by the end of this year.
Irina Frank predicts an even greater increase in the share of localized models from China in the sales structure of new cars. In her opinion, taking into account the already achieved 30% in the first five months and powerful growth factors, by December this ratio may reach 40-45%, and in the future even approach the 50/50 parity by the end of the year.
"The trend is beyond doubt: the localization of the Chinese automotive industry in Russia has moved from the experimental stage to the dominant strategy, and its share will only grow," Irina Frank told Izvestia.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
