Echo of War: why strikes on Iran may lead to escalation in Transcaucasia
Iran recognizes the significant damage suffered during the armed conflict with Israel: a number of military installations were damaged or destroyed, and leaders of the armed forces were killed. What is happening is noticeably changing the balance of power in Transcaucasia. The main victim is Armenia, which is becoming weaker in front of the alliance of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Izvestia investigated the situation.
The sky is covered in rockets
Israel has been launching massive strikes against Iran since June 13. According to published data, on the very first day, about 200 Israeli planes bombed military facilities of the Islamic Republic. In addition, Mossad agents entered enemy territory and used kamikaze drones to destroy air defense systems.
As a result, Iran suffered losses. Firstly, ammunition factories were damaged, several missile depots and army barracks were destroyed. According to the IDF, most of the air defense systems and about a third of the Iranian missile launchers have been destroyed. Strikes were also carried out on nuclear centers in Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan, energy and oil and gas infrastructure, and the headquarters of state television in Tehran.
Secondly, many leaders of the armed forces were killed, among them the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami, Chief of the General Staff Mohammad Bagheri and his replacement Ali Shadmani, head of intelligence of the IRGC Mohammad Kazemi.
Iran has also retaliated against Israel. According to official figures, more than 200 people have been killed in just five days of fighting in Iran. 24 military and civilian deaths have been confirmed in Israel.
At the same time, the situation remains extremely difficult, and Israel is talking not only about the desire to deprive Iran of the chance to create its own nuclear weapons, but also about a complete change of the ruling regime in the country. "In the very near future, you will see planes of our Air Force in the sky over Tehran: we will strike at every facility and every target of the Ayatollah regime," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. It is also known that the United States is deploying additional forces to the Middle East, and Donald Trump has called on Tehran to capitulate.
Refugees and the corridor
The fighting between Iran and Israel has stirred up the countries of the South Caucasus. Firstly, difficulties have arisen in the field of civil aviation. Many flights in the region have been cancelled, while others have changed their routes. Moreover, several aircraft made emergency landings due to the closure of Iran's airspace, as a result, Armenian citizens ended up at Baku airport and Azerbaijani citizens in Yerevan.
Secondly, serious concerns have arisen due to Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In this regard, enhanced monitoring has begun in the border regions of Armenia and Azerbaijan, with experts taking air samples and scanning cars entering from the Islamic Republic. At the same time, both countries emphasize that no changes in the radiation background are recorded.
Finally, there was a lot of concern about the possible influx of refugees. The fact is that more than 10 million ethnic Azerbaijanis and about 200 thousand ethnic Armenians live in Iran. Azerbaijan has not yet officially commented on this issue, but insider sources report that Baku fears a mass movement of people to the border. Zare Sinanyan, the Commissioner for Diaspora Affairs in Armenia, said that Iranian Armenians are in a very worrying state, and their decision to move is "maturing every day."
If we talk not about the humanitarian, but about the military-political aspect, then there are also noticeable changes. The weakening of Iran could hurt Armenia's position and strengthen the tandem of Azerbaijan and Turkey. The fact is that Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Recep Tayyip Erdogan have long insisted on the creation of the Zangezur Corridor— a road through southern Armenia that will connect Turkey with the coast of the Caspian Sea.
At the same time, Baku and Ankara emphasize that the highway should be extraterritorial, that is, without any border checks. Iran has been the main opponent of this project in recent years. Yerevan's loss of control over the south of Armenia cuts off the Islamic Republic from the EAEU market, deprives access to the Black Sea ports, and further strengthens Tehran's long-time opponent Turkey.
In recent years, quite complex diplomatic and military-political maneuvers have been conducted in this regard. Iran regularly stated that they would not tolerate the redrawing of borders, and also conducted military exercises on the adjacent territory. The Islamic Republic has also defiantly opened its consulate in the city of Kapan in southern Armenia. At the same time, relations with Azerbaijan remained tense, the embassy in Tehran was closed for a year and a half in 2023-2024, and "Iranian agents" were regularly caught in Baku.
Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh
Literally on the eve of the current Middle East escalation, representatives of Tehran confirmed their principled position. So, at the end of May, Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh visited Yerevan, where he called the encroachments on the territorial integrity of Armenia unacceptable. In early June, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's adviser on international affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati, stressed that it was Tehran that prevented the creation of the Zangezur Corridor, "which would mean the dismemberment of Armenia."
It is difficult to say how serious the damage has been inflicted on Iran now, but it is clearly not up to the situation in the South Caucasus. In such circumstances, the balance of power becomes even more fragile, and the threat of a new escalation increases. The Secretary of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, says that the country's leadership is discussing "all possible scenarios" and is carrying out some preparatory work.
What the experts say
Armenian political scientist Tigran Kocharyan emphasizes that Iran has been Yerevan's main ally in the region in recent years.
— It was the position of Tehran that kept Azerbaijan and Turkey from new aggression. The weakening of an important ally will complicate our situation and may further strain relations with our neighbors. Therefore, many of us hope that the conflict in the Middle East will end quickly, otherwise the consequences may be severe," he notes.
Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov says Iran's influence in Transcaucasia has been very limited.
— Unlike Russia and Turkey, Tehran does not have stable allies here, it does not have its own military base, there is no military-political cooperation, and relations at the level of strategic partnership have not been established with anyone. Speaking directly about the Zangezur corridor project, the Azerbaijani leadership simply did not react to the numerous statements of its neighbors, and Tehran's position on this issue does not matter to us," he explains.
Artur Ataev, a Russian Caucasus expert, emphasizes that much can change in the region's economy.
— Armenia's position is certainly weakening, Iran is a valuable ally for Yerevan, it is one of the windows to the world, which is very important in the conditions of the blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey. Azerbaijan, on the contrary, is becoming a beneficiary. We see that the price of oil has already risen, and it may rise even higher. Baku is one of the major exporters of hydrocarbons, and in the current conditions, the republic's profits will increase," he argues.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
