Eastern rivalries: new countries are involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran

The conflict between Iran and Israel is moving towards escalation, but the parties are still leaving room for negotiations, experts say. Tehran and Tel Aviv continue to exchange blows, and the Yemeni Houthis are already involved in the conflict. At the same time, Iran is ready to conclude an agreement guaranteeing the absence of nuclear weapons, said the country's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. Russia offered its mediation services - the Russian President held talks with the Prime Minister of Israel and the President of Iran. Moscow is doing everything to end the confrontation in the Middle East, the Federation Council told Izvestia. According to media reports, Cyprus or the Persian Gulf countries may also act as possible mediators. However, there is still a danger of the conflict spreading by involving Western countries in it. About ways out of the crisis in the Middle East and the potentials of the warring parties — in the material of Izvestia.

How is the situation in the Middle East developing?

Israel and Iran continue to exchange attacks on each other's territories. In fact, they are waging a war, although no one has officially declared it. On the night of June 15, the Israeli army attacked military targets in Tehran. The Shana agency wrote that an oil storage facility in the north of Tehran and a fuel storage facility in the south of the Iranian capital were attacked - for this Tel Aviv deployed 50 aircraft. In total, Israel has attacked more than 720 Iranian military installations since June 13. Moreover, peaceful objects are also under attack - for example, one of the buildings of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, the Iranian diplomatic mission said.

The Islamic Republic is retaliating against Israel using UAVs and missiles, including at fuel production sites for Israeli fighter jets. On the afternoon of June 15, Iran launched retaliatory missile attacks on Haifa, Tel Aviv, Ashkelon and other areas of the country.

The conflict is gradually expanding its geography. On the night of June 15, the Israeli Air Force attacked the capital of Yemen, the city of Sanaa. This part of the country is controlled by the Houthis, a paramilitary movement that supports Iran. The strike allegedly hit the building where the group's leadership was gathered, but this has not been officially confirmed. Earlier, the Houthis said they had attacked targets in the Tel Aviv area several times with Palestine-2 hypersonic missiles.

The parties summarize the interim results of the exchange of blows and calculate the damage. Israel has managed to destroy a facility in the Iranian city of Isfahan, without which the development of nuclear weapons is impossible, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. Tel Aviv also does not deny that, in addition to eliminating the Iranian nuclear program, it is interested in a change of power in Tehran.

Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian said that the United States and several European countries provided Israel with intelligence before the strikes. He called for the unification of all Islamic countries and stressed that Iran would give a more crushing response if Israel continued to attack the territory of the Islamic republic.

According to the Israeli Ministry of Health, ten people were killed and 385 injured during Iran's retaliatory strikes. Estimates of the death toll in Iran vary, so far 128 victims of the attacks are known and about 900 injured.

Iran really decided not to respond symbolically. The military-industrial complex of this country includes quite advanced technologies that allow Iran to declare itself as a powerful state in the Middle East, Murad Sadigzade, president of the Center for Middle East Studies, told Izvestia.

— We see that the myth of the inviolability of the Israeli Iron Dome air defense system does not work. In the event of full—scale hostilities between Iran and Israel, they will, of course, be difficult for Israel without American support," the expert said.

Iran's military potential is also very impressive. Tehran has a wide arsenal of intermediate-range ballistic and cruise missiles sufficient to hit targets in Iraq, Syria, the Persian Gulf coast and even the Eastern Mediterranean. In addition, it is worth mentioning the significant progress in the field of drone systems, including attack drones that have been successfully tested in the Syrian and Yemeni territories, political analyst Farhad Ibragimov told Izvestia.

How will the conflict develop further

Diplomatic efforts are also continuing against the background of the exchange of blows. Iran is ready to conclude an agreement guaranteeing the absence of nuclear weapons, said the country's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. However, Tehran will not sign the treaty if its goal is to deprive Iran of its "legitimate nuclear rights." Israel has not yet declared its readiness to sit down at the negotiating table. However, the leader of his main ally, US President Donald Trump, said that Iran and Israel should conclude an agreement that would achieve peace and make the Middle East "great again."

Two factors are likely to have a major impact on the course of the conflict. First, the diplomatic efforts of the various parties. Thus, Russia has already expressed its readiness to provide mediation services in order to prevent further escalation of tension. On June 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin held telephone talks with Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Putin stressed that Moscow condemns Israel's actions taken in violation of the UN Charter and international law and called for a return to negotiations.

Then the Russian president spoke with his American counterpart. After the conversation, Trump stated that he was open to mediation by the Russian Federation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held talks with the foreign Ministers of Iran and Turkey. The heads of the diplomatic missions of Moscow and Tehran agreed to raise this issue in the UN Security Council and the IAEA Board of Governors, as well as in the SCO and BRICS. Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, said that Russia could play a key role in mediating the conflict between Israel and Iran.

— Everything is being done to ensure that this heated confrontation is short-lived. In any case, Russia stands for ending this military confrontation and bringing peace to the Middle East," Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, told Izvestia.

French President Emmanuel Macron also contacted both warring parties. According to him, in a telephone conversation with his Iranian counterpart Peseshkian, he urged Tehran to return to negotiations as soon as possible. At the same time, the French leader blamed Iran for the Israeli attacks - according to Macron, the country "violated all the rules and all its promises" and therefore France cannot mediate in resolving the conflict.

Cyprus may become another mediator. President of the Republic Nikos Christodoulides contacted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to convey to him a message from the Iranian authorities. Although the representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ismail Bagai, immediately hastened to refute these statements. Apparently, Cyprus' interest is due to the fact that it is the EU country closest to the Middle East.

So, if the parties to the conflict do agree to start negotiations, then Russia, Cyprus or one of the Persian Gulf countries can mediate in them. For example, Oman, where the sixth round of negotiations between the United States and Iran on the Iranian nuclear program was scheduled to take place on June 15. However, it was cancelled due to Israeli strikes.

The risk of involving new participants in the conflict, including the United States and other Western countries, remains high. Iran has already told France, Britain and the United States that if Israel helps, their facilities in the Middle East will become targets, the Mehr news agency reported. U.S. forces are assisting in repelling retaliatory strikes against the Jewish state, Netanyahu said. The UK has decided to send additional forces to the Middle East. However, at the moment, Western countries have not launched strikes on the territory of Iran - at least, this has not been officially announced.

A long-term war is not the best option for Israel, even given the fact that it receives US military and intelligence assistance. Given the "weight categories" of countries, namely the area of territories, Israel is clearly inferior, while Iran can disperse forces at remote distances, reducing the risk of their neighboring destruction, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia.

— The factor of Israel's small economy and the presence of a more expensive aviation component also plays an important role. It is likely that in response to the attacks, Israel will launch systematic strikes against Iran's oil production and refining complex. In this case, Iran may play the next card - the threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the implementation of which can provoke an energy crisis," the expert said.

For now, Washington is pretending to avoid being drawn into a new conflict. The main deterrent is the fatigue of American society from the Middle East wars and the risks of a sharp increase in instability in the oil production area and critical logistics.

— Iran is well aware of these vulnerabilities and will use them in its strategy. In this context, attacks on American bases can be used more as a symbolic and politically charged action that can cause a short—term shock and demonstrate to regional players that Iran is ready to go all the way," the expert said.

The current dynamics of the conflict are currently being shaped by the logic of "cautious escalation", where else can we leave room for diplomatic maneuver: Iran is apparently not ready to be the first to cross the line separating positional pressure from open war. The country is betting on a protracted game in which the full range of available tools will be used. The confrontation, experts summarize, is developing as a "game of nerves," where the main thing is not to win immediately, but to keep Israel in a state of strategic uncertainty.