Analysts have predicted the recovery of the Russian car market in 2026

Sales of new cars in Russia in 2026 may recover to the level of 2024, which showed good dynamics against the background of previous years. This was reported on June 17 by Kommersant with reference to the basic forecast of the auditing and consulting company Trust Technologies (TeDo).

According to the analysts' baseline forecast, the Russian car market will end 2025 at 1.46 million passenger cars sold, which is 7% less than a year earlier. With the stabilizing option, sales will decrease by 2% (1.54 million units), and with the pessimistic option, they will fall by 19% (1.27 million units).

In 2026, the car market is projected to reach 1.57 million cars in the baseline scenario, but in a pessimistic scenario, it will reach such figures no earlier than 2028, analysts expect. The stabilizing scenario for 2026 is sales at 1.64 million cars, while the pessimistic scenario is 1.36 million.

The basic scenario assumes an increase in household incomes, a moderate rise in car prices, a sale of leftovers and an increase in the cost of owning a car. The stabilizing factor takes into account the reduction of the key rate, the expansion of the product range in the market, the emergence of new players and the deepening localization of current ones. The pessimistic scenario assumes a weakening of the ruble, maintaining the key rate, reducing supply and accumulating runoff.

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The day before, it became known that from June 1 to June 15, prices for new cars changed for seven brands officially represented in Russia. At the same time, cars from only three brands have risen in price.

It was also reported that AvtoVAZ may reduce the production plan for 2025 by 20%, to 400 thousand vehicles. The reasons for the drop in sales are a sharp decline in consumer and car loans, as well as a high level of overstocking in the retail network.