They are tired: why car sales are falling in Russia

Sales of new passenger cars declined significantly in May, according to the analytical agency Autostat. Experts assume that the market decline will continue. Bestsellers are losing popularity, and demand for cars of some new brands, on the contrary, is growing. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

After the best April sales so far this year, the market fell again by 10.7% in May, below 100,000 units. Experts attribute this to fewer working days — there were 22 in April and 18 in May, but they note that the results are noticeably worse compared to May last year. According to the results of May 2025, 91,218 new passenger cars were registered, which is 28.3% less than in the same month of 2024.

Dumping is to blame

Lada, despite a serious decline in results (minus 36%), retains market leadership, and by a huge margin from the rest — in March, 25.5 thousand cars were sold. In five months, it turned out to be the only brand represented in Russia whose cars sold more than one hundred thousand copies, although in this case it showed a decrease of minus 24% compared to the same period last year.

The head of AVTOVAZ, Maxim Sokolov, blames the dumping of Chinese cars, the high key interest rate and the tightening of credit conditions for the failures.

However, according to Autostat, dumping does not help Chinese companies much. Haval, which became the most popular foreign brand and took the second place, sold just over 10 thousand cars, falling by 24%. Chery is in third place with 9.8 thousand, minus 25%, followed by Geely (6.3 thousand, minus 39%) and Changan (5.6 thousand, minus 43.5%).

Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat, noted that these five companies occupy more than 80% of the Russian automotive market. According to his calculations, in May, the total decline in sales among the top five turned out to be significantly higher than the market — minus 32.3%. For the rest of the market participants (there are about a hundred of them), sales in late spring decreased by an average of only 3.2%.

The brands in the second five in May showed both negative and positive dynamics. Omoda showed the strongest drop — minus 53%, the result of 2.2 thousand cars allowed it to take the eighth place. The related brand of Jaesoo took only the 10th place, with a result of 1.6 thousand cars (minus 32%). Sales of the Belarusian brand Belgee remained at the level of last year (+0.4%), while Chinese Jetour (3.4 thousand, plus 8%) and St. Petersburg Solaris (2 thousand, plus 70%) increased.

Sunrise of Solaris

Despite the fact that Solaris cars don't look modern inside, they appeal to customers who value an atmospheric engine and a hydro-mechanical "automatic", says Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem. However, Igor Morzharetto, partner of Autostat, expressed surprise at the popularity of Solaris.

— The prices were not changed, the discounts on them were minimal. Maybe people believed that these were, in general, really the same Hyundai and Kia, that the service would be normal, and slowly began to take a closer look. Although, once again, the prices are not the lowest, not the highest, but quite interesting," the expert noted.

There are many factors that influenced the high sales of Solaris this year, and each of them contributed, Ilya Petrov, Director of Retail Sales at Avilon AG, told Izvestia.

— Car dealers received the 2025 Solaris KRS and Solaris KRX models in a good mix, some of the customers were waiting for these cars. In addition, bonuses under the trade-in program have been increased. Special installment programs for up to 24 months and favorable subsidized rates on long-term loans also helped attract buyers. The manufacturer places additional emphasis on Solaris HC and Solaris KRX as more versatile for everyday life and Russian weather conditions," said Ilya Petrov.

The most sought-after

Lada Granta is traditionally the leader in the "model competition" — more than 12 thousand units. Despite the fact that its sales are 35.1% less than a year ago, the result is unattainable for other models. Lada Vesta, which took the second place, showed almost half the sales — 6.6 thousand units and the worst dynamics among cars from the top 10 — minus 52%.

The best foreign car, the Haval Jolion crossover, could not get close to Vesta with 4,6 thousand cars (minus 28%). It is followed by the Chery Tiggo 7 Pro Max crossover by a large margin — 2.8 thousand units; minus 45.8%

The Lada Niva Legend SUV closes the top five — 2.6 thousand units, minus 30%. The second five were Chagan Uni-S (2.6 thousand units), Belgee X50 (2.4 thousand units), Geely Monjaro (2.4 thousand units), Chery Tiggo 4 (2.3 thousand units) and Lada Niva Travel (2.3 thousand units). Moreover, the Monjaro, the most expensive car in the top five, showed the smallest decrease in sales — minus 18.5% by May 2024.

There may be a shortage of cars

The worst results in May compared to the same period last year are caused by several factors, Ilya Petrov notes. These are the reduced availability of loans due to the increased loan rate, and multiple price increases over the year associated with a step-by-step increase in recycling, and the continued growth of logistics services.

— In the first half of the month, there was a significant decrease in traffic (minus 20-25%) and a slowdown in the pace of contracting. However, in the second half, the indicators returned to the April level," he noted.

According to Petrov, overstocking continues to decrease. The stock of cars varies from 2 to 5 months depending on the brand, and some models may even have a slight shortage by July-August.

— In June, a sharp reduction in sales support measures (discounts) is not expected, as the holiday season traditionally begins, which is low for the automotive business. The forecast for June is a 5-8% decrease in sales in the new car market compared to May," Ilya Petrov said.

The market decline will continue, perhaps with rare bursts, Igor Morzharetto believes.

— There are no prerequisites for the market to stabilize or start growing. The highest key rate remains the same, prices remain high, discounts have decreased slowly, and there are no such crazy discounts anymore. Some brands have sold out almost all the cars that remained from 2023 and 2024. That is, in general, the market situation is still pessimistic," the expert noted.

Deposit instead of car

The market situation may change by autumn, Maxim Kadakov suggested. Until citizens start withdrawing money from their accounts, sales will not grow.

— Key players subsidize the bid and offer discounts, but sales are still falling, even at Geely. In the spring, car service stations did not detect the traditional surge in calls, motorists even began to save on car repairs," Kadakov noted.

The Association of European Businesses (AEB) explains the situation in the car market by the fatigue of the population from negative trends.

— In general, the general fatigue of the population from the current negative trends prevails. The expectation of the return of departed brands, supported by the media, leads to the fact that the potential buyer continues to vote in favor of bank deposits. The hope for an early reduction in the key rate by the Central Bank as an opportunity to increase the availability of loans also plays a deterrent role," said Alexey Kalitsev, Chairman of the AEB Committee of Automakers.

According to Kalitsev, pent-up demand continues to grow against the background of a declining market. The AEB expressed hope that the government's decision to expand the concessional lending program to families with two or more children will have a positive impact on the market, and the effect is expected in the next quarter.