And oil: Brent is forecast to rise to $100 amid the Iranian-Israeli conflict
The escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict will cause a further increase in Brent crude oil prices — up to $100 per barrel by the end of June, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Against the background of the escalation that began on the night of June 13, raw materials have already risen in price to $78. In the future, the situation in the Middle East is capable of further accelerating global inflation — global stock markets have already reacted to these risks by falling. But the Russian economy, due to the increased prices for the main domestic export products, may, on the contrary, benefit. About what will happen to the ruble exchange rate in the coming months and how a new round of conflict in the Middle East is changing world markets — in the Izvestia article.
Oil prices after escalation between Iran and Israel
The Iran-Israel conflict has pushed up oil prices. On the morning of June 13, the price of August Brent crude futures on the London ICE Futures Exchange soared by more than 13%, with oil trading above $78 per barrel, exceeding this mark for the first time since the end of January 2025. By the close of Friday trading, the price had dropped to $74.5 for the same volume. But by that time, Iran had not yet begun retaliatory actions against Israel.
However, they did not take long to arrive. The very next day, the world media, citing the opinions of various experts, began to publish forecasts of price increases above $100 per barrel, and Iraqi Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Fuad Hussein said that "further aggravation of the situation in the Middle East caused by the confrontation between Iran and Israel may cause an increase in oil prices." up to $200-300 per barrel."
According to Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, all that is currently pushing prices up are just expectations.
— Physically, there is currently enough oil on the market. The market fears that something will happen to Iranian production and its exports. For now, Israel is hitting nuclear and military facilities, then it will start hitting energy facilities in order to reduce Tehran's income, prevent it from recovering quickly and continuing to implement its nuclear program," Igor Yushkov believes.
According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2025, Iran's oil production will average 3.1 million barrels per day. However, at the end of last year, Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad announced that the country plans to increase production to 3.85 million barrels per day this year. However, this is still not much against the background of global mining. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand in 2025 is 103.5 million barrels per day.
"If Israeli attacks take all Iranian oil production and exports off the market, provided that OPEC+ does not interfere in the situation, then oil prices can really soar to $90-100,— Igor Yushkov expects.
Independent expert Andrey Barkhota gave a similar forecast to Izvestia. In his opinion, by the end of June, commodity prices could skyrocket to $100 in urgent shipments.
In turn, Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of VMT Consult, notes that OPEC+ members, in particular Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, can really quickly increase production by 3-3.5 million barrels per day.
— The question is whether they will do it. On the one hand, the oil world has long lived in conditions of low prices. On the other hand, the Saudis have been deliberately increasing production recently in order to increase their market share, says Ekaterina Kosareva.
The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the fire in Texas
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 18-20 million barrels per day pass, which accounts for about 20% of global consumption, may be a serious test, Ekaterina Kosareva believes. On June 14, it became known that Tehran was considering the option of closing it. Oil comes from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait along this route. Blocking will immediately remove huge amounts of energy resources from the market, the expert concluded. According to New Farsi, in this case, oil prices may rise to $250.
Russian experts are in no hurry to make such forecasts. Ekaterina Kosareva notes that everything will depend on the duration of the channel closure. She recalled that in the spring of 2021, due to the fact that the container ship "Ever Given" blocked the Suez Canal for six days, through which about 7-10% of global oil consumption passes, oil prices increased by only 5%.
— I don't think prices can rise above $150 per barrel. The historical maximum was recorded in 2008. Then, against the background of the aggravation of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, they exceeded $140, Ekaterina Kosareva recalls.
Igor Yushkov, in turn, notes that in the event of a prolonged closure of the strait, more countries will be involved in resolving the conflict, because neither the United States nor Europe are interested in high oil prices.
Among other things, according to Ekaterina Kosareva, in the near future, information about the consequences of a large fire at the Marathon Oil refinery in Texas, which caught fire this weekend, will support prices. It is the third largest plant in the country, with a capacity of almost 600,000 barrels per day. Its products are also aimed at international markets. In her opinion, it is not worth waiting for oil prices below $70-75 in the near future.
How does the conflict between Iran and Israel affect the economy?
When oil prices rise, production costs in the countries that import it immediately rise, which will accelerate inflation there, explained Georgy Ostapkovich, research director at the HSE Center for Market Research. That is why global trading platforms have already reacted to the escalation of the conflict by falling: the American S&P 500 index, the German DAX and the French CAC fell by 1% on Friday.
Meanwhile, exporters, which include Russia, will benefit from this, Georgy Ostapkovich pointed out. On Friday, June 13, the Moscow Exchange index rose to 2,750 points, but the main reaction should be expected on June 16, when non-working days end in the Russian Federation. There are already prerequisites for further positive developments on the domestic market: along with the growth of Brent quotations, the cost of Russian raw materials began to increase — up to $65 per barrel as of June 15.
When Iranian oil leaves the market, domestic oil exports to China will benefit, since both Russia and Iran sold raw materials to China at discounts, analyst Igor Yushkov added. And now the Celestial Empire will be able to buy additional volumes from us. In addition, competition between India and China will increase for our oil.
— It is important for investors to take into account the situational nature of market movements and not completely redistribute resources against the background of high volatility. Optimism in the movement of the Moscow Stock Exchange, which is very likely in the next 7-12 days, will also be short—term," concluded independent expert Andrey Barkhota.
An increase in oil prices now would be very beneficial for the Russian budget, as oil and gas revenues have significantly decreased due to a drop in quotations over the past six months. As a result, the Ministry of Finance has already revised the forecast for the treasury shortage for 2025, tripling it to 3.8 trillion rubles.
At the same time, the ruble exchange rate has not yet significantly reacted to the escalation in the Middle East — in recent days, it has been trading just below 80 rubles per dollar on the interbank market. However, it is now heavily influenced by other factors, such as the high key rate and low import volumes.
Therefore, the ruble in the next two months will be in the range of 81-86 rubles per dollar, Andrei Barkhota expects. In the autumn, the weakening is likely to accelerate, and the year will end with a rate comparable to the level of December 2024 — 102-107 rubles per dollar.
Along with the increased uncertainty, gold prices also showed an increase — up to $ 3,463 per ounce. Andrey Barkhota expects a further increase in the price of precious metals in the coming weeks, as investors treat it as an eternal protective asset. However, the dynamics will no longer be as pronounced as with raw materials: the surge in investments in "safe haven assets" will be temporary.
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