Norwegian trolling: the largest deposit has limited exports to the EU
Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor announced this week an unplanned production cut at its largest Troll field. This happened in addition to the planned decrease, which this year will last for ten months due to renovation work. The immediate effect was an increase in gas prices, which jumped by 2.2% at the Dutch TTF hub. All this is happening against the background of the rather weak performance of the summer campaign to fill European underground gas storage facilities (UGS). Why Europe and industry analysts are closely monitoring the hitches in Norwegian gas production and how this will affect European plans to abandon Russian gas is in the Izvestia article.
The new main supplier...
After the reduction of supplies from Russia in 2022, initiated by the EU, Norway began to play a key role in supplying the union with gas. By 2024, its share in the European market was about 30%, which was facilitated by rising prices, which stimulated Norwegians to increase capacity in offshore fields in the North and Norwegian Seas. Last year, shipments from Norway to the EU totaled more than 90 billion cubic meters, of which more than 40 billion cubic meters accounted for Trolling. Thus, the field increased its production by 10% over the year.
The year 2025 has arrived, when, three years after the start of its supply chain, supplies from Russia through Ukraine stopped. Imports from Norway have become even more relevant: the possibilities of the United States to increase supplies are not unlimited, and there are also many difficulties with other sources. Although the winter turned out to be moderate, it led to significant emptying of European UGS facilities, which were filled by about 30% by the end of the season. Under these conditions, the Norwegians announced several months ago that they would carry out repairs at several fields.
In total, these works should lead to a reduction in production by 14 million cubic meters of gas per day, and this decrease should reach its maximum in September (almost 50 million cubic meters per day). That is, in total, we are talking about about 5 billion cubic meters by the end of the year. But now, in addition to the planned suspension of production, an emergency one has also been added. According to Marcel Salikhov, President of the Institute of Energy and Finance, the cumulative decrease in production due to unplanned repairs amounted to about 35 million cubic meters daily.
Meanwhile, the campaign to fill the UGS is not going perfectly. At the moment, 45% of their capacity has been pumped into the storage facilities, which is 20 points less than in the same period last year. The situation in Norway makes the situation even more alarming.
...and the main manipulator
"Norway is indeed the largest exporter of natural gas to the EU," said Maria Belova, Research Director at Implementa. — Therefore, spot prices went up on the announcement of a reduction in supplies (and since January, the country has supplied only 1 billion cubic meters less gas to the EU than in the same period of 2024).
According to her, traders understand that since the beginning of 2025, Europe has lost the Ukrainian transit of Russian gas, and no one has canceled the task of filling storage facilities by 90% by October.
— The Europeans will cope with this task by attracting additional LNG from the market at a higher price. It is curious that the Norwegians, who were the first to switch to spot gas trading with the EU 15 years ago, have repeatedly been seen manipulating prices in the region by starting unscheduled repairs at their fields," concluded the Izvestia interlocutor.
At the same time, experts believe, a major failure in production and imports to the EU should not be expected yet.
— For now, Equinor representatives expect the outages to last until May 31. At the same time, supplies to Europe from Norway have already partially recovered — now, according to Gassco, they amount to 276 million cubic meters per day against the normal level of 300-320 million cubic meters per day. Against this background, we estimate that due to the current supply disruptions from Norway, the European market will lose within 0.5 billion cubic meters of gas, which is a fairly small value on the market scale. This is also noticeable by the rather moderate price reaction. However, we note that after prolonged supply disruptions, risks remain," said Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman.
According to Salikhov, the reduction in supplies has led to a rise in prices, but also a relatively moderate one. Over the past four weeks, TTF prices have increased from $380 to $420 per thousand cubic meters, but this is still well below the January–February levels of this year ($550-600). Over a longer horizon, supplies from Norway remain fairly stable. For example, in January – mid-May 2025, shipments to Europe amounted to 36 billion cubic meters, last year it was 37 billion cubic meters for the same period.
— Europe can replace the reduction in Norwegian gas supplies with an increase in LNG supplies. For example, in March and April, imports of liquefied natural gas exceeded 12 billion cubic meters per month, which is a record high. The main increase is due to increased supplies from the United States," Salikhov added.
Will there be any adjustments?
In 2025, the EU is constantly raising the issue of completely abandoning Russian gas. It should be recalled that last year the volume of its supplies increased significantly. In particular, Russian LNG was exported to Europe by 18% more than in 2023. Of course, after the suspension of transit through Ukraine, the overall figures will have to decrease. But how realistic is it to talk about a complete abandonment of gas trade with Russia?
Sergey Kaufman does not expect that Norway's problems will somehow affect the EU's plans to abandon Russian gas.
— At the same time, we note that if the abandonment of Russian LNG on the horizon of 1-2 years is possible against the background of an increase in supply in this market, then we consider the abandonment of the remaining pipeline gas unlikely due to the position of Hungary and Slovakia.
Salikhov, in turn, said that while supplies from Russia are steadily declining. From January to mid-May, pipeline exports from Russia amounted to 6.8 billion cubic meters, which is almost two times less than the same period in 2024.
"The European Commission intends to completely stop importing Russian gas (pipeline and LNG) by the end of 2027,— Salikhov said. — By the end of 2025, it is planned to terminate all new and spot contracts, which should reduce imports by a third. The implementation of these plans depends on the availability of alternative supplies, primarily from Norway, the United States, Qatar and other countries. If supply disruptions from Norway or other alternative sources are repeated, the EU may have to adjust its plans or at least soften the terms and conditions for the complete abandonment of Russian gas.
At the same time, Kaufman believes that at the moment it is not noticeable that the EU may have significant difficulties preparing for the heating season.
— Although the reduced stock level is one of the key factors that keeps prices above the $400 mark per thousand cubic meters. The increased price level and increased supply in the LNG market allow the EU to increase imports of liquefied natural gas, which leads to higher rates of filling of UGS, albeit from a significantly lower base than in the last two years.
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