Does the United States expect serious consequences from the quarrel between Trump and Musk? Analysis

The public conflict between US President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk could be a turning point for American politics. Although the reason for the breakup was the financial losses and unfulfilled ambitions of Musk himself, he also became the voice of businessmen and Republicans, who were also disappointed by the current course of the White House. Whether the confrontation will escalate and what it will eventually lead to is in the Izvestia article.

What gave rise to the conflict

• There are a number of quite tangible reasons for the breakup between Trump and Musk, which they both talk about in the public field. The reason for the latest, toughest exchange of views was the so—called "big, wonderful bill" - Trump's draft budget, which has already been passed by the lower house of Congress and is awaiting a vote in the upper house, the Senate. The bill is characterized by a reduction in many non-military expenses and benefits, an increase in tax deductions and an increase in public debt. Some articles of the bill directly affect Musk's business interests, which eventually provoked harsh criticism from him.

One of the reasons for the dissatisfaction of the founder of Tesla was the reduction of subsidies for electric vehicles, which were introduced under the previous president Joe Biden. Analysts have long noted that when Musk began actively supporting Trump, it was an extremely controversial move — Trump does not hide his irritation about the green transition and related initiatives of his predecessor, so inevitably his policy would have a negative impact on Tesla sales. The bill cancels benefits of $7.5 thousand for new electric vehicles and $4 thousand for supported ones — for Tesla, this is equivalent to a loss of $ 3.2 billion.

• Musk was particularly hurt by the fact that in the Trump administration he was responsible for reducing government spending and optimizing the budget, heading the relevant department. However, Musk never got real powers, and instead of developing large-scale efficiency improvement programs, he could only "nightmare" small agencies, and sometimes his efforts were nullified after the first complaint to the court. Musk stated that he was not involved in the development of the bill, although he clearly believed that this should be his area of responsibility.

• Another blow from Trump came at the end of May, when the president refused to nominate Jared Isaacman, a billionaire and close associate of Musk, to head NASA. He hoped that at least the space sector of his business, represented by SpaceX, would be able to feel comfortable during Trump's second term, but now Musk faces the prospect of terminating a number of government contracts. In addition, the budget bill provides for almost a quarter reduction in spending on NASA, which makes the prospects for SpaceX very dim.

Musk: I'm sorry, but I can't take it anymore. This huge, outrageous, piggy bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for him. You know what you did was wrong. You know that. This will significantly increase the already huge budget deficit to 2.5 trillion (!!!) and it will burden the citizens of America with an unbearable debt.

Trump: I'm very disappointed in Elon. I helped him a lot. He knew the inner workings of the bill better than anyone sitting here. He had no problem with that. He suddenly had a problem and only discovered the problem when he found out that we were going to reduce the mandate (tax benefits. — Ed.) on electric vehicles.

Musk: That's a lie, no one showed me this bill, and they passed it in the dead of night, so quickly that almost no one in Congress had time to read it.

Musk: Without me, Trump would have lost the election. Democrats would control the House of Representatives, and there would be 51-49 Republicans in the Senate.

Trump: We did a great job, Elon knew that. Elon admired me very much. He actually won the campaign for me. I think I would have won Pennsylvania regardless of Elon... I am very disappointed with Ilona. He knew this bill better than anyone else, and he only had a problem when he found out that I would reduce the mandate for electric vehicles.

Musk: It's time to drop a really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in Epstein's files. That's the real reason they weren't made public. Have a nice day, DJT!

Trump: I don't mind that Elon spoke out against me, but he should have done it a few months ago. This is one of the greatest bills ever submitted to Congress. That's a record $1.6 trillion in spending cuts, and the biggest tax cut ever made. If this bill is not passed, there will be a 68% tax increase, and things are much worse. I didn't create this mess, I'm just here to FIX IT. This puts our country on the path to greatness. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"

Musk: In light of the president's announcement to cancel my government contracts, @SpaceX will immediately begin decommissioning its Dragon spacecraft.

Musk: (replied to a message from user Ian Miles Chong: "The president is against Elon. Who will win? I'm betting on Elon. Trump needs to be impeached, and J.D. Vance should come in his place"). Yes.

Musk: Isn't it time to create a new political party in America that will truly represent 80% of the population?

• Two days later, Elon Musk deleted a post in which he stated that Trump's name was mentioned in the case of deceased financier Jeffrey Epstein, who was accused of abusing minors. Earlier, the foreign press was skeptical about this statement, noting that many famous people were mentioned in the Epstein files, which is not at all proof of their guilt. Democrats from the House of Representatives, after the scandalous message appeared, demanded that the FBI verify these allegations.

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What projects and programs are threatened by the consequences of the quarrel between the president and the businessman

• Musk's statements also show resentment due to the fact that he spent a lot of money and effort to lead Trump to victory in the presidential election. Musk really invested about $300 million in the Republican's campaign, becoming a real lifeline for him — the multiple lawsuits in which Trump is involved have practically left him without his own fortune. New sponsors followed Musk, so he rightly believed that after the inauguration he would get what he deserved. However, not only did he not stay with his own people, but now he will also suffer significant losses.

Deeper causes of the quarrel

All of the above reasons can hardly be called really worth going into open conflict with the US president, calling for his impeachment and threatening to release certain compromising files. Whatever losses Musk may have suffered in finances and ambitions, it's still not the price worth paying to be in Trump's disgrace. Analysts tend to believe that there are a number of other underlying reasons that prompted the billionaire to burn bridges.

• Deceiving sponsors' expectations. Trump's second term has not satisfied many of his supporters, and it's not just about the Mask. During his election campaign, the US president was seen as a man who would set aside the interests of big business, weaken regulation for it, open markets and reduce taxes. Corporate executives actively donated money to his campaign, hoping that he would give them freedom of action. However, Trump's economic policy turned out to be very different. He began to interfere in business processes, manually regulate trade by setting tariffs, demanding the transfer of production to the United States, and depriving companies of cheap migrant labor. Never before has a Republican president touched so many interests of corporate America.

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In just one day of confrontation, the owner of Tesla lost $34 billion.

• Lack of quick successes. If Trump's actions had immediately had a positive effect and had an impact on people's well-being, there would not have been so many complaints about him. However, in the United States, they are increasingly talking about the threat of recession, the country's credit rating has been shaken, bond rates are rising, foreign capital is flowing out of the country, and the budget bill threatens to sharply increase government debt. Big business found itself in conditions of extreme uncertainty, and Musk's story clearly confirms what excessive faith in Trump's economic program can lead to.

• The decline of Trump's popularity. Last but not least, current events are influenced by the falling ratings of the US president. His actions are not approved by the population on any issue other than migration.

Interestingly, the Democratic Party is in no hurry to take advantage of the resulting vacuum. Everything that is happening looks more like a factional struggle between Republicans, among whom there are loyal supporters of Trump, and less radical conservatives who are disappointed in the president. By crushing the Republican Party, having achieved a majority in Congress for it, Trump could not calculate his strength and believe too early that there were no more internal obstacles in front of him. However, the call for Trump's impeachment, joined by Elon Musk, did not find widespread support even among critics of the bill.

What are the consequences of this

• There is still no consensus among analysts about what a public conflict will eventually lead to. There was talk that Musk and Trump did not want to lose touch and were going to call each other — although Trump later denied these rumors. It would be more beneficial for both of them to make some concessions to each other and reassure the public, for whom a quarrel of this level is unprecedented. However, such a scenario is unlikely, given how passionate both figures are and how reluctant they are to give up their goals. The only thing they were able to do almost a day after the quarrel was to tone down the rhetoric somewhat.

• If the conflict remains in a heated stage, the Republican Party will fall into the zone of turbulence. If Musk is so opposed to the adoption of a "big, wonderful bill," then he needs to return to the political struggle and first at least win over a number of senators who dare to go against Trump. Some of the Republicans are already expressing disagreement with the bill, so this could be an extremely painful point for the president. Musk has the usual levers of influence on Republicans — the next election cycle is just around the corner, and many would benefit from his financial or other support. The question is whether Musk is ready to move on to long-term political planning or would prefer not to raise the stakes so high.

• However, Musk may not be limited to internal party struggle. He himself admits that it may be time to create a full-fledged third force in the US political system. Although usually all attempts to create an alternative to Republicans and Democrats have failed, Musk could have taken this step, fearing too much resistance from Trump's nuclear electorate. After all, Musk had already managed to secure victory for a politician whose career seemed ruined by numerous accusations and criminal prosecutions. Creating a new center of gravity for those who are tired of the Democrats' agenda and do not want to wait for the consequences of Trump's policies does not seem like a stillborn idea now.