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- Dispute from the hut: the conflict between Trump and Musk may affect the US space industry
Dispute from the hut: the conflict between Trump and Musk may affect the US space industry
After a public conflict broke out in the United States between President Donald Trump and SpaceX and Tesla owner Elon Musk, the parties reduced the degree of confrontation. In particular, the businessman stated that he would not decommission Crew Dragon ships. However, the quarrel will not remain without consequences for the American space industry, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Among the victims may be the new US Golden Dome missile defense system and Musk's visionary Mars exploration projects. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
The conflict between Trump and Musk
The conflict that broke out in the United States between President Donald Trump and SpaceX and Tesla owner Elon Musk, the parties tried to quickly extinguish. However, it will not remain without consequences, particularly for the space industry, according to Russian experts interviewed by Izvestia.
Earlier, Musk criticized the new draft of the American budget, which was promoted by the president, and Trump responded by calling the entrepreneur crazy and threatening to save budget funds by canceling contracts with him. The American leader also blocked the candidacy of Jared Isaacman for the post of head of NASA, which was lobbied by the businessman.
The situation got out of control when the billionaire decided it was time to "drop the real bomb." He wrote that Donald Trump appeared in the so—called "Epstein files" - the documents of financier Jeffrey Epstein, who was accused of trafficking minors for the purpose of sexual exploitation and inciting them to prostitution. Musk also called for the creation of a third party in the United States, an alternative to Republicans and Democrats.
American entrepreneur Elon Musk
The apotheosis of events was the announcement by Musk about the suspension of operation of the Crew Dragon, a reusable manned spacecraft developed by SpaceX, which is used for flights to the International Space Station. However, after a while the entrepreneur changed his mind.
— Both Trump and Musk are impulsive, authoritarian personalities who are used to achieving their goals. Both are businessmen. But there are no friends in this case, there are temporary partners. I believe that the conflict that has broken out will be extinguished, but it will continue to smolder and someday flare up again," commented Dmitry Strugovets, an expert in cosmonautics and author of the Telegram channel Closed Space.
The consequences of the quarrel between Trump and Musk
As a result of the confrontation, not only the business of SpaceX and Tesla will suffer, but also the prestige and security of the United States, Dmitry Strugovets believes. According to him, the consequences may affect the American manned flight program. The development of Starlink, low—orbit satellites for high-speed Internet access, will also be suspended. The Golden Dome program, a new US missile defense system, may be affected.
Therefore, the expert believes, the situation will not be brought to radical scenarios — Dragon will continue to fly, and Starlink will develop. The only thing that is now in question is SpaceX's participation in the Golden Dome and Trump's support for Musk's visionary projects to create a transport system for the exploration of the Moon and Mars.
— The conflict that has occurred is not just a personal quarrel, but potentially the largest crisis in the history of the American space industry and high—tech business. The breakdown of relations threatens to slow down or stop key NASA projects, problems for the ISS and Starlink, as well as large—scale financial and legal risks," commented Nicholas Oxman, a startup entrepreneur and author of the Cosmodiver Telegram channel.
He noted that until recently, Elon Musk was the de facto architect of the US space policy under Trump, accelerated reforms at NASA and lobbied for budget redistribution in favor of Martian projects. These areas are currently in question.
Discontinuation of Dragon could lead to a slowdown or shutdown of current NASA missions, including resupply of the ISS and preparations for lunar and Martian expeditions. The American Space Agency will have to look for new contractors, who are currently having problems. In particular, the reusable manned Starliner spacecraft from Voeip is not ready for these purposes yet. However, if Trump leaves and the Democrats return to power in the United States, this could mean a complete stagnation of the lunar program and the ousting of Musk from the space industry, the expert believes.
For his part, the cosmonautics historian, author of the Telegram channel Chronicle of the Space Age, noted that all these questions are premature. The quarrel between Trump and Musk is developing dynamically and is far from over. Any turns are possible in this process, ranging from financial, political and legal conflicts to the restoration of friendly relations.
What are the legal risks?
The possible decommissioning of Crew Dragon, as well as the withdrawal of Musk's companies from government contracts, may have legal consequences for the party that has not fulfilled its obligations, said Mariam Yuzbashyan, an expert on international space law.
"At the same time, if SpaceX is responsible for damage compensation within the United States, then, for example, under the agreement between Russia and the United States on cross—flights to the ISS, the United States as a state will be responsible for non—fulfillment of obligations," she said.
Taking into account that other American means of delivery to the ISS are not capable of quickly replacing the Crew Dragon, the only alternative remains the Russian Soyuz, she added. Our country still has the right to make these agreements commercially less loyal.
— The events that have taken place are certainly a "black swan" for the global space industry. This is a warning about how dangerous it is when civilizational programs of universal importance, such as the exploration of the Moon and Mars, depend on specific politicians, entrepreneurs, and even individual states," said Andrei Ionin, space expert and advisor to the CEO of the Geoscan Group of Companies.
He stressed that the implementation of such projects is possible within the framework of broad international cooperation — only in this case they are insured against arbitrariness.
Meanwhile, it became known that the White House is preparing a telephone conversation between Trump and Musk to end their public quarrel, writes Politico. The exchange in absentia led to a drop in the shares of the billionaire's companies and criticism of both in the United States.
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