Costs of growth: the ruble continues to rise against the dollar and the yuan

The ruble continues its strengthening trend against most world currencies. Last week, the official dollar-ruble exchange rate dropped below 80 rubles for the first time in two years, and on May 29, the Central Bank set the exchange rate at 79.60 rubles per dollar. At the same time, on the Russian interbank market at 11:18 Moscow time, the dollar fell to 77.875 rubles. On Friday, May 30, the official dollar exchange rate from the Central Bank will be 78.5 rubles. How the ruble's exchange rate has changed against the world's leading currencies and how long the strengthening trend will last — in the Izvestia article.

Why is the dollar falling

The ruble continues its strengthening trend against most world currencies. Last week, the official dollar exchange rate dropped below 80 rubles for the first time in two years, and on May 29, the Central Bank set the exchange rate at 79.60 rubles per dollar, which is two kopecks less than the day before.

The estimated dollar exchange rate on the Russian interbank market dropped to 77.875 rubles at 11:18 Moscow time on May 29. The last time the US currency fell to this level was on May 31, 2023, according to data from the Finam platform.

On Friday, May 30, the official dollar exchange rate from the Central Bank will be 78.5 rubles.

Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has significantly strengthened, and then gained a foothold at high values.

According to Interfax, the US currency is getting cheaper against the background of actively rising oil prices and positive expectations regarding the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the second stage of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled for June 2 in Istanbul.

The over-the-counter dollar exchange rate dropped below 78 rubles for the first time in two years.

How much does the euro and yuan cost?

The official euro exchange rate dropped by 56 cents to 90.34 rubles on May 29.

The Chinese yuan fell by five cents against the ruble, to 11.05 rubles.

During trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange at 3 p.m., the yuan exchange rate was 10.8655 rubles, which is 14.8 cents lower than the closing level of previous trades. Earlier, the yuan fell to 10.84 rubles for the first time since May 11, 2023.

As explained by the Central Bank in the review "What the trends say", the strengthening of the ruble in 2025 was influenced by a number of reasons for "different stability".

Among them is a tight monetary policy and, as a result, a sharp slowdown in lending in many segments of the economy.

In addition, the tight PREP has affected deposit rates and money market rates, which have created a percentage differential between ruble and foreign currency financial instruments.

As a result of the use of these tools, the supply of currency on the market has increased, and the balance of cross-border transfers of individuals has improved, the Central Bank said.

Why has the dollar dropped to its lowest level in two years? Analysis

What will happen to the ruble in the summer and autumn of 2025

According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the ruble remains stable for the time being, but its weakening trend may resume in the second half of the year.

According to Natalia Pyryeva, a leading analyst at Cifra Broker, in the second half of the year, the country will receive lower oil and gas revenues due to the oil prices that have fallen since the beginning of the year, which will reduce the volume of foreign currency supply on the market.

In addition, the dividend season will end, which will also reduce the need for exporters to repatriate foreign exchange earnings, the expert noted.

At the same time, demand for foreign currency will grow against the background of vacations. According to analysts' forecasts, in the summer the ruble will resume moving in the direction of 90-95 rubles per US dollar.

Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World of Investments, also believes that the dollar exchange rate is unlikely to consolidate below 80 rubles for a long time.

"Lowering the interest rate and restoring domestic demand, including demand for imports, can dramatically change the balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. At lower rates, companies will have to spend less rubles to service debt, therefore, the need for rubles will be lower," he concluded.

According to Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa-Forex's customer support and sales department, since the beginning of the year, the dollar has fallen in price by 20.5%, the euro by 13.5%, and the yuan by 19.5%.