Experts explained the drop in demand in the Moscow housing market

Demand in Moscow's primary and secondary real estate markets is falling by about 15-17% year-on-year. This was announced on Thursday, May 29, by Dmitry Khalin, CEO and Managing partner of Intermark Urban Real Estate.

"If we evaluate the market as a whole from the beginning of 2025, then the level of demand and the number of transactions in the first four months in both the primary and secondary markets are almost comparable. Another thing is that a year ago the market was on the rise, and every month we saw an increase in the number of transactions, whereas in March-April of this year there was some stagnation," a business representative explained to Izvestia.

According to him, the comfort class segment is now significantly declining, where the number of transactions with new buildings was tightly tied to a subsidized mortgage program. If we take the April figures for this segment, then after the cancellation of most preferential mortgage programs, demand decreased by 40% year-on-year, Khalin noted.

"If we talk about the situation in May and forecasts for the future, we do not expect any catastrophic drop in demand in the elite segment in Moscow compared to last year. However, if we take the business, comfort and economy class segments, then in order for there to be a lot of transactions, good mortgage conditions are important for them and their performance will look worse than last year's. We can assume a drawdown in demand in these segments by 30-35%," the expert admitted.

Olga Khasanova, General Director of URBAN real estate projects, added that the capital's development is going through difficult times. If we compare April 2025 with April 2024, the sales losses look impressive. However, the spring of last year cannot be called an indicative period, she believes.

According to Khasanova, at that time, buyers were actively dismantling housing in order to make it to the end of the preferential mortgage regime. It was clear that demand was outpacing, and in any case, the transaction statistics would have declined, the expert emphasized.

"Currently, 7,000 lots are being disposed of in Moscow new buildings every month — this is not a brilliant, but quite acceptable indicator. At the beginning of the pre—crisis 2021, the monthly rate was 8,000 lots," the expert explained.

At the same time, she noted that regional development is in much tougher conditions. Its marginality is lower, the consumer audience has lower incomes, and the pressure of inflation is felt much more acutely than in Moscow.

"Stabilization should not be expected. What we are seeing today is stabilization, albeit at a relatively low level. Industry players, of course, dream of a new upswing, but it requires a fundamental change in the foreign policy and socio-economic situation," Khasanova believes.

Below the skirting board: sales of residential real estate in Russia have collapsed by almost 40%

Analysts predict that the trend will continue, but the Central Bank believes that anti-crisis measures are not needed.

Earlier, on May 16, it was reported that one in five Russians would like to put up a cottage for sale in order to buy an apartment in the capital. At the same time, one in three (33%) estimates their suburban real estate in the amount of 6 million to 10 million rubles, according to the results of a study by Level Group.