We're running into a limit: it's getting harder to borrow on a credit card

It is becoming increasingly difficult to get a credit card for a large amount: the average size of the limits is rapidly falling. According to the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI), it fell below 100 thousand rubles in April, decreasing by 13.3% compared to the same month last year and by 1.7% compared to March. In general, the trend towards reducing limits has been fixed since last summer, despite the decrease in the purchasing power of the ruble. Analysts believe that this is a clear sign of a future decline in consumer demand and falling retail sales in the economy.

Despite the growth of creditworthiness

It should be noted that this is happening against the background of an increase in the average personal credit rating (PKR) of the borrower, which currently stands at 651 points (the minimum value is 1 point, the maximum is 999 points). The growth of the RCC means, among other things, an increase in loan refusals. But even reliable payers are finding it increasingly difficult to take out a loan, and in the case of cards, get a significant amount of the limit. The owner of a PKR of 710 points (noticeably above average) can count on limits ranging from 50 to 150 thousand rubles. In order to get 150-500 thousand, you already need to have a rating of 794 points. And citizens with an average rating of 467 points will not receive more than 10 thousand rubles for a credit card.

The largest average limits on new credit cards issued in the regions of the Russian Federation (among the 20 leading regions in this segment of retail lending) in April 2025 were recorded in Moscow (129.8 thousand rubles), St. Petersburg (114.3 thousand rubles), the Moscow Region (113.7 thousand rubles), as well as in the Tyumen Region (105.8 thousand rubles) and Leningrad (105.4 thousand rubles) regions. The most significant decrease in the average size of credit card limits (among the 20 regions of the Russian Federation that are leaders in this type of retail loans) in April 2025 compared to the same period last year was demonstrated by the Rostov Region (-21.8%) and Moscow (-19.5%), Tyumen (-18.3%) and Moscow (-17.6%) regions. and also St. Petersburg (-17.2%).

The NBKI notes that the decrease in the average size of the limits on issued cards is a consequence of the regulator's tight monetary policy to cool the credit market. At the same time, the issuance of new credit cards in 2025 has stabilized after several months of continuous decline in the second half of last year.

The collapse of mortgages and car loans

Credit cards are just one of the "fronts" where the rapid contraction of retail lending is taking place. For example, the average amount of consumer credit in April rose slightly compared to the beginning of the year, but is still almost 10% lower than at the beginning of 2024. And the total volume of such loans has more than doubled, and the dynamics of the decline tends to accelerate (in December 2024 — a decrease of 49% compared to the same month of the previous year, in April 2025 — by 57%).

The situation is similar in the field of car loans, where a 58% collapse was recorded in the first quarter. Mortgages are still supported by preferential programs (primarily family ones), but commercial mortgages have long been unavailable. Not only is the rate near 30% per annum, but banks are constantly demanding more and more first payments. The entry fee in some places reaches 75%, while in millionaires it consistently exceeds 60%. In fact, the market mortgage has turned into an additional payment tool, which is taken only in extreme cases.

The burden of waiting: government programs continue to play a key role in the mortgage market

Until the key rate is lowered, only installments from developers can be an alternative.

All this should not be surprising if we focus on the strict policy of the Central Bank, which is expressed not only in raising the key rate, but also in macroprudential regulatory measures, which are constantly being tightened. The effect of this tightening is having a negative impact on consumer demand. Household income growth has been significant over the past couple of years, but the retail market cannot grow without loans.

According to Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments, the Bank of Russia's strict regulation of unsecured consumer lending negatively affects consumer demand dynamics, especially in terms of non—food products, which are often bought on credit.

— According to the Central Bank's reports, a serious cooling of demand is already being observed in the segments of passenger cars, smartphones and other electronics. At the same time, demand is being pressured not only by the availability of credit, but also by other factors. First of all, these are high deposit rates. They encourage people to abandon purchases and switch to a savings strategy of behavior. The Bank of Russia also notes the depletion factor of pent—up demand, which has been observed over the past few years," the expert notes.

Against inflation at any cost

But the regulator's policy is quite transparent — all means are good in the fight against price increases.

— Actually, the slowdown in consumer demand leads to a slowdown in inflation in this segment. And now the Central Bank is just struggling with inflation. Regarding the inflation of non—food products, we can say that the Bank of Russia has achieved its goals," Rokotyanskaya added.

Elman Mehdiyev, the founder of the credit history verification service Kredchek, noted that macroprudential limits are in effect, the debt burden is decreasing, and this is even much more important than reducing consumption.

— If consumption grew only through lending, it means that something is wrong in the economy. And if the growth rate of the debt burden exceeds the growth rate of income, then this is twice wrong. Therefore, yes, there will be a reduction in consumption, but the effect will be much greater due to the fact that there will be no unnecessary debt burden, there will be no over—creditworthiness and the economy will eventually be healthier," the Izvestia interlocutor is convinced.

Commission failure: Russians have become more likely to complain to the Central Bank about mortgage issuance

How the banks' pursuit of profit led to an irreversible rise in housing prices

At the same time, according to Dmitry Kopylov, Executive director and head of TeDo's financial risk management practice, reducing the average limit does not mean that the total debt of borrowers is decreasing.

— This is more likely due to the fact that banks optimize capital consumption and more often reduce the available limits for those borrowers who do not use credit cards. However, if the trend towards stricter capital requirements continues, banks will have to reduce limits for those customers who actively use credit cards. In the perspective of 1-2 years, this may lead to a decrease in consumption," the expert believes.

In turn, Rokotyanskaya states that the fight against inflation in the food segment has not yet been fully won.

— Consumer demand is more stable here due to the fact that people will buy everyday goods anyway. This allows manufacturers of many basic goods to raise prices as costs rise. It is also possible to note the influence of salaries, which increased significantly last year and continued to grow at the beginning of this year," says Rokotyanskaya.