- Статьи
- Economy
- The burden of waiting: government programs continue to play a key role in the mortgage market
The burden of waiting: government programs continue to play a key role in the mortgage market
The share of mortgage loan refusals in Russia has dropped to a minimum in almost a year, but the market is still on the decline: in conditions of prolonged high interest rates, demand for market mortgages has dropped sharply, and government programs are "dragging" the issue. For more information about the market prospects and available alternatives, see the Izvestia article.
Growing approval
According to the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI), in March, the rejection rate for mortgage loan applications reached its lowest level in a year at 46.1%. This is lower than in January and February (54.4–54.6%). And in 2024, they dropped below 50% only twice.
The increase in mortgage approvals is associated with an increase in the amount of government subsidies for banks (at the beginning of the year) on preferential mortgages coming from the federal budget to compensate for lost income in conditions of high key interest rates, says Tatiana Aleksashina, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
— Another factor was a slight decrease in market rates. The percentage of second homes and new buildings decreased to about 28%. This also led to an increase in approvals, banks partially changed their rules and lowered the restrictions that had been introduced earlier," says Angela Krasnoyarova, real estate expert, head of the Rost-Invest Academy of Sciences.
Nevertheless, the quality of the mortgage portfolio remains an important aspect for banks.
— Despite the increase in approvals, banks are trying to control risks and prevent a significant deterioration in the quality of borrowers. The level of overdue mortgage debt remains at a low level — about 1-1.5%. This indicates a fairly conservative approach by banks to assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers," emphasizes Venera Shaidullina, director of the Analytica Research Center. Business. The right."
The market is shrinking
Experts are sure that there is no need to talk about market recovery yet. Thus, according to the results of last year, the number of mortgage loans issued in the country decreased by 43% compared to 2023, and the volume of loans issued by 40%.
This year, in the context of the ongoing tight monetary policy of the state, the picture remains similar. So, in March 2025, mortgage loans in Russia, according to the Scoring Bureau, decreased by half compared to last year. During the month, 51.4 thousand housing loans were issued in the country (compared to last year's 108.7 thousand). The volume of funds issued also decreased by the same 50%. The amount of mortgages issued in March 2025 amounted to 229.2 billion rubles. A year ago, it was 459.8 billion rubles.
The bid for government programs
Preferential government programs remain the main driver of the market, with interest rates currently ranging from 2% to 6%. They account for more than 90% of new loans. The main stream of transactions is formed by family mortgages, while IT mortgages, Arctic, Far Eastern, and military mortgages make a smaller contribution.
— As for market mortgage programs, the demand for them remains extremely limited. The average rates are at the level of 26% per annum, which makes them economically impractical and unattractive for most borrowers. In fact, such conditions are "protective," says Alexander Kuznetsov, founder of the Genesis Group real estate agency.
There is a certain market segmentation: affordable housing in new buildings is purchased mainly using preferential programs, while the secondary market and the premium segment are more focused on market products, notes Venera Shaidullina.
Standby mode
Banks, developers, and buyers are waiting for a reduction in the key interest rate. There will be no significant recovery in the mortgage segment and a surge in loans until it goes down or until the criteria for preferential programs expand, experts say.
— The minimum effective interest rates on mortgage loans in banks are in the range of 26-27% and above. The demand from non-accredited customers at such high rates is close to zero. This category of clients (those who do not fall under the terms of preferential government programs. — Ed.), obviously, is waiting for a reduction in the key rate and an improvement in the terms of standard mortgage products," says Olga Goryukova, Director of the Risk Management Department, member of the Management Board of PJSC Svoy Bank.
Against this background, demand will continue to be maintained only by family mortgages and installment programs, according to real estate experts.
— Moreover, for many buyers, installments from the developer become the most affordable tool: without bank approval, without interest, and with the ability to flexibly enter into a transaction. It is precisely such formats, along with government programs, that will determine market behavior in 2025," believes Alexey Kuznetsov.
According to a number of experts, the market will begin to show signs of recovery when the key rate returns to around 15%.
As follows from the Izvestia consensus forecast, the key rate may drop to 19% only by the end of 2025. In a positive scenario, analysts assume a reduction in the key rate to 16 or 17%. In the negative, the level will not fall below 20%. The Central Bank will be able to begin easing monetary policy in one meeting - on July 25, analysts say. Most of them believe that the regulator will act carefully and reduce the rate in slow steps.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
