Analysts have predicted the ruble exchange rate for the second half of the year

The Russian ruble remains stable due to a number of factors, but its weakening trend may resume in the second half of the year. Natalia Pyrieva, a leading analyst at Cifra Broker, shared this opinion with Izvestia on May 22.

Earlier that day, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set the official dollar exchange rate at 79.75 rubles. The currency dropped below 80 rubles for the first time in almost two years.

"We expect the ruble's weakening trend to resume in the second half of the year. The country will receive lower oil and gas revenues due to the oil prices that have fallen since the beginning of the year, which will reduce the volume of foreign currency supply on the market. The dividend season will end, which will also reduce the need for exporters to repatriate foreign exchange earnings," the expert noted.

At the same time, according to Pyrieva, demand for the currency is expected to recover, both from importers and from the population against the background of the summer holiday season. According to analysts' forecasts, in the summer the ruble will resume moving in the direction of 90-95 rubles per US dollar.

The expert explained that the stability of the ruble, among other things, is influenced by the emotional factor. It is connected with the coming to power of the American leader Donald Trump, the establishment of relations with the United States and building a dialogue with Ukraine on the peaceful settlement of the conflict. However, according to Pyryeva, establishing relations with unfriendly countries may help weaken the demand for foreign currency from importers.

"The consumer behavior factor is also important. Against the background of the same expectations, Russians are postponing purchases of non-everyday goods in anticipation of more comfortable conditions in the future. As a result, the supply of foreign currency in the market exceeds the demand for foreign currency. Therefore, we see a stable and strong ruble," she concluded.

In turn, Ilya Fedorov, chief economist at BCS World Investments, suggested that fixing the dollar exchange rate below 80 rubles for a long time is unlikely.

"Lowering the interest rate and restoring domestic demand, including demand for imports, can dramatically change the balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. At lower rates, companies will have to spend less rubles to service debt, therefore, the need for rubles will be lower," he concluded.

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Evgeny Baboshkin, Head of Business Development at Prime Brokerage Service, told Izvestia on May 16 that the Russian currency has been strengthening against the US dollar and the euro for five months in a row. According to the expert, the main factor contributing to this trend was a significant decrease in the volume of purchases of foreign currency by Russian legal entities.