The greens are still: what is happening in the Russian foreign exchange market

Over the past week, the dollar has been trading on the stock exchange at the level of 80-82 rubles. To what extent it is justified to run to exchangers, which categories of citizens will benefit from the advice of analysts and experts, whether it will provoke an additional fall in the ruble exchange rate — read the Izvestia article.

An auspicious moment?

Yulia Makarenko, Deputy director of the Banking Development Institute, called the record weakening of the US dollar the main reason for the strengthening of the ruble.

— Donald Trump's protectionist policy has led to the alienation of capital from US government bonds into protective assets (therefore, since his election, gold has risen in price to $3,500 per troy ounce). At the same time, the statements of the American president about the possibility of an early settlement of the conflict in Eastern Europe, on the contrary, attract investors to Russian bonds. Which, in turn, also supports the ruble," she told the publication.

According to Alexander Schneiderman, head of Sales and customer support at Alfa-Forex, the ruble's position is not as stable as it seems.

— The main pressure on the ruble remains the shrinking foreign trade balance. Importers, against the background of a strong ruble, are increasing their purchases from abroad and are trying to buy as much currency as possible. And exporters, in turn, bring less currency to the Russian market, as oil continues to fall in price amid the US trade wars and OPEC+ 's decision to increase production, he says.

The expert added that, in addition to companies, the hype is created by individuals who buy dollars on the eve of a vacation or to make money on future exchange rate differences. Increased demand creates prerequisites for the weakening of the ruble.

According to Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, the ruble exchange rate has been extremely sensitive over the past three months to negotiations between the Russian Federation and the United States to resolve geopolitical tensions.

— It is extremely difficult to predict the outcome of the negotiations and the further development of the geopolitical situation now. For example, progress in communication can lead to 70-80 rubles per dollar on expectations of foreign capital inflows into Russian assets (and even up to 60-70). The escalation of the conflict and the deterioration of the geopolitical situation, on the contrary, will very quickly return the ruble to the range of 90-100 per dollar, " he told Izvestia.

In general, Mikhail Vasiliev suggested, it is now reasonable to purchase dollars for tourist, educational or business trips, but it is worthwhile to be prepared psychologically for stronger values of the Russian currency.

"Starting from the second quarter, we expect an increase in demand for foreign currency for the purchase of imports and for foreign summer holidays," he predicts demand.

How will the Bank of Russia affect

The next meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to review the key rate is scheduled for April 25. According to the experts surveyed, there are more prerequisites for maintaining the current level at 21%, but with a high probability of easing monetary policy next time.

— Lowering the key rate would help weaken the ruble, which would help exporters and the federal treasury. However, by keeping the interest rate at a record high, the Bank of Russia is pursuing another task — fighting inflation, which even exceeds the 7.6% threshold increased by the Ministry of Economy," says Alexander Schneiderman.

The ruble exchange rate in the last week of April and early May will be determined by the escalation or decrease in the degree of trade wars, the dynamics of further reduction of the monetary difference between exports and imports, as well as the decision of the Bank of Russia.

At the same time, according to Mikhail Vasiliev, in the event of a strengthening of the ruble, the Bank of Russia has a pool of other tools without a key rate to correct the exchange rate of the national currency and reverse the prevailing trend.

— For example, verbal interventions about the undesirability of strengthening the ruble, reducing the sale of foreign currency in the framework of budget operations with the transition to replenishing foreign currency in reserves, the complete abolition of the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings, the active release of non-residents from accounts of type "C", easing restrictions on capital withdrawal, lowering the key rate with a clear slowdown in inflation, — the analyst lists.

Boom is not expected

The dollar can be traded as you like on international platforms (the other day the dollar dropped to 79 rubles) — but only the Bank of Russia sets exchange rates in Russia, recalls Yulia Makarenko.

— It is most logical to buy dollars right now for investment purposes on specialized brokerage platforms — there the exchange rate is closest to the real one, — she says.

The financier called the idea of running and changing the currency in the exchange offices of banks questionable.

— First, you need to consider the difference between buying and selling. Even with an increase in the exchange rate by 10 rubles, you will not be able to earn much — the profit will be "eaten up" by the difference. It doesn't make sense to purchase dollars in order to win in a couple of weeks with small amounts (for example, $100 or even $1,000) — the "winnings" will be too small. Secondly, different banks can set very different exchange rates depending on their own policies. So, with the official Central Bank exchange rate of 81.50, we are currently seeing sales in several banks at 90, 85.25, 83.95, 84.50 rubles per dollar. The courses may also differ when buying online or at the bank's office. Third, the quality of the cash you purchase may suffer. This is especially important for those who plan to keep cash for a long time or spend it abroad. Banks are interested in getting rid of old—style dollars and gaining more new ones, the expert says.

Vladimir Eremkin, a researcher at the IPEI Structural Research Laboratory of the Presidential Academy, agrees with the financier. He recalled that when deciding on investments in foreign currency, one should rely on one's own goals, and not on advice "from the Internet."

— Do not forget that dollar inflation this year may reach about 3%. Saving in dollars can only protect against serious domestic economic shocks, which are unlikely to occur in the medium term. Another risk is the possibility of freezing savings in bank accounts, as it was in 2022," he said.

Mikhail Vasiliev does not count on the increased demand for dollars and euros in exchangers either.

— Because of the sanctions, traditional currencies — the dollar and the euro — have become "toxic." At the same time, the yuan does not have all the advantages of a global reserve currency. We also remember that the rates on ruble deposits remain about 20% per annum, which supports the attractiveness of savings in rubles compared to foreign exchange transactions," he believes.

Forecasts

According to Alfa-Forex's forecast, in May 2025, the US currency will trade in the currency range of 80-88 rubles per dollar in the near future.

The chief analyst of Sovcombank calls the likely average values of 80-85 rubles per dollar in the second quarter, with the subsequent weakening of the Russian national currency.

Financier Yulia Makarenko has designated a trade corridor of 76-90 rubles for May due to the abundance of counteracting and irrational factors - "black swans".

A weakening of the ruble from current levels is very likely over the horizon of six months, Dmitry Kulikov, senior director of the ACRA group of sovereign and regional ratings, told the publication.

— First of all, the decline in commodity prices will negatively affect expectations of a reduction in world trade. Our forecast is closer to 100 rubles per dollar by the middle of summer (respectively, to 110 rubles per euro). The trajectory of the weakening will be determined by the norms for the sale of foreign exchange earnings, key rate movements, domestic business activity and import demand," he concluded.

And according to Finam analyst Alexander Potavin, objectively, the dollar exchange rate should now be closer to 95-100 rubles, taking into account the situation with the trade balance of the Russian Federation and the current account.

— By the end of the month, we forecast trades in the range of 81-85 rubles for the dollar, 91-96 rubles for the euro, and 11.0—11.6 rubles for the yuan. In May, the demand for foreign currency from importers will increase, so the ruble exchange rate will be even weaker, with a tendency to reach 98-100 rubles per dollar, 110 rubles per euro and 13.7 rubles per yuan by the end of the year," he said.