Will the United States be able to create a "Golden Dome" in three years? Analysis

Work on the American missile defense system "Golden Dome" is planned to be completed in three years. US President Donald Trump announced that the project is estimated at $175 billion. What is the peculiarity of the anti—missile shield being developed, what are the chances of its implementation, and how the idea of the Golden Dome is related to Reagan's Star Wars project?

What will the Golden Dome look like?

• On May 20, US President Donald Trump announced that the Golden Dome missile defense system is planned to be implemented before the end of his presidential term. Trump announced the idea of creating such a system shortly after his inauguration. According to the US president, the missile defense architecture has already been determined, and its cost will be about $175 billion.

• General Michael Getlein of the United States Space Forces has been appointed head of the program. The system should intercept all missiles directed against the United States, including hypersonic missiles. The Golden Dome will consist of land, sea and space components: a large number of surveillance and attack satellites are provided. Key developments will be handled by companies developing advanced technologies, such as SpaceX, Palantir and Anduril.

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• The traditional defense industry will also be "integrated" into the "Golden Dome". The White House names L3Harris Technologies, Lockheed Martin and RTX Corp as possible contractors, which have already joined the race for contracts. L3 has already invested in the construction of a new plant in Indiana, where satellites with hypersonic and ballistic space sensors are being manufactured — this equipment can be integrated into a future missile defense system.

The United States began developing the first missile defense shield in 1984, when President Ronald Reagan launched a program called "Star Wars" based on fictional technologies. Trump practically continued Reagan's program, but repeatedly stated that the American missile defense system should be built by analogy with Israel's Iron Dome (we wrote more about the idea of the United States reproducing the Iron Dome system here).

• The US missile defense shield may cover the territory of Canada and Greenland, which Trump has repeatedly announced plans to annex. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has expressed his desire to strengthen ties between the two countries, including with regard to U.S. Aerospace Defense and the Golden Dome.

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Implementation difficulties

• The timing of the construction of the Golden Dome, announced by Trump, contradicts the estimates of experts who set aside 7-10 years for the implementation of the program. And even after a decade, the system will have a limited range and protect only large cities and critical buildings. The White House's estimate of the project's cost is at odds with the calculations of the Congressional Budget Office, which estimated that the cost of the Golden Dome would reach $831 billion over 20 years.

• The initial investment in the project will amount to $25 billion. Republicans expect to find this amount as a result of budget coordination. The Trump administration will resubmit to the House of Representatives a bill on tax breaks, spending cuts and border security, which should free up the necessary funds. There is no agreement on the initiative even within the Republican Party: some believe that cutting costs for the Medicaid medical program will not be enough, others fear leaving voters without health insurance and food aid.

• The implementation of the project, as in the Reagan era, may stumble due to the lack of necessary technologies. The United States is already experiencing difficulties in defense production due to China's restrictions on exports of dual-use goods. In addition, single attacks can repel existing American missile defense systems, and in the case of a large number of attacking missiles, no anti-missile system will help avoid strikes.

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• An increase in the US defense budget in connection with the development of an anti-missile shield looks like a controversial decision, given the fact that the Pentagon risks not passing a mandatory audit by 2028. The Defense Department has become the only one of the 24 US federal agencies that has never passed a financial audit since the adoption of the Financial Directors Act, which controls state budget expenditures. The Pentagon's problems may be related to numerous cases of fraud and abuse.

Reactions from other countries

• Russia, China, North Korea and Iran have been declared potential adversaries against whom the work on the Golden Dome will be directed. Officials from North Korea and Iran have not yet commented on the US plans to create an anti-missile shield.

• China has expressed serious concern about the US plans to implement the Golden Dome project. China believes that the initiative is "offensive in nature" and risks unleashing an arms race and "militarization of outer space."

• Russia reacted cautiously to the US statements and reminded that the details of the project are not yet known. At the same time, the Foreign Ministry pointed out that although the missile defense development plans are worrying, there is no reason to panic.

During the preparation of the Izvestia material, we talked and took into account the opinions of:

• Mikhail Sinelnikov-Orishak, an American political scientist;
• Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist;
• Sergey Poletaev, information analyst, co-founder and editor of the Watfor project.