Trenches and emptiness: what will lead to a new tightening of mobilization in Ukraine
In Ukraine, mobilization is getting tougher again. There are already university inspections in the country for the presence of draft dodgers, and similar measures are planned for graduate students. At the same time, Rada deputy Dmitry Mikisha stated that the corrupt turnover of military enlistment offices exceeds €2 billion per year. Izvestia investigated the situation.
Let's go to universities
Serious problems await Ukrainian men who avoided serving in the Armed Forces by studying. Deputy Minister of Education Mikhail Vinnitsky said that right now, hundreds of universities in the country are undergoing inspections, during which students who are deviating should be identified. "If this is face-to-face training, then the verification takes place physically, directly in the classrooms. Documentation and exam results are also being studied. It is already obvious that this year we will have a lot of deductions based on the results of the session in May–June," he said.
Vinnitsky also said that inspections are underway for graduate students. According to him, 3 thousand people have already been expelled. All of them were only nominally engaged in education, in fact, they evaded mobilization. "It's about identifying those who use graduate school for other purposes. The checks are ongoing now. We will see a fairly large number of those who do not fulfill training or individual plans based on the results of the sessions to be held in June," he stressed.
At the same time, the Government of the country submitted to the Verkhovna Rada a bill that would deprive men over the age of 25 who receive vocational and technical education of their exemption from mobilization. The explanatory note to the document notes that the number of military personnel entering vocational schools and colleges has increased recently. "This trend requires a response and legislative regulation to determine the age of applicants," the authors emphasize.
Another bill, which was discussed by the government's representative in the Verkhovna Rada, Taras Melnichuk, involves the mobilization of men over the age of 25 who receive a second higher education. "The clarifications are being made in order to avoid judicial appeals, since the courts have already begun to recognize the right to postpone students for a second time," he stressed.
Cannibals on the hunt
General mobilization in Ukraine was announced in February 2022, and it has been extended several times since then. The country's authorities are constantly tightening conscription standards, and military enlistment officers regularly conduct raids in search of those liable for military service. At the same time, Ukrainian men try to avoid being sent to the front, for which they buy fake disability certificates, enroll in universities and graduate schools, try to illegally cross the state border or simply stop leaving home.
It is difficult to estimate the scale of mobilization because the data is contradictory. The Washington Post reported in January this year, citing its sources, that in total 200 thousand people were sent to the Armed Forces in 2024, the highest rates were from March to June, and then "there was a drawdown." In April of this year, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, said that in order to maintain combat capability, the Ukrainian army needs to be replenished in the amount of 30 thousand people per month, that is, more than 300 thousand must be found per year.
Against this background, security raids are becoming more and more violent. The main scandal of this May occurred in Kharkiv, where security forces, while trying to mobilize, punched an unknown man twice in the stomach, the incident was filmed by bystanders. Later it turned out that the victim works as a school teacher and had a legitimate reservation from the draft. At the same time, the Shopping center did not admit guilt, saying that the "physical confrontation" began because of the provocative actions of the man.
Another episode occurred in Dnipro, where a local resident had his hip broken. According to the victim, during the raid he tried to escape from the security forces, but they caught up with him, knocked him to the ground and beat him. As proof, he published an X-ray of the fracture. The shopping center said that the man himself was to blame for the incident. When he allegedly saw the patrol, he ran across the road and was hit by a car, and the servicemen then called an ambulance.
Another incident occurred in the town of Tatarbunary, Odessa region. There, a police officer knocked down a seven-year-old girl on a pedestrian crossing. The next day, the victim's father came to the district department to find out the details, where he was immediately seized by the security guards. The man stopped contacting his family, and a few days later he was found in the hospital with serious injuries. At the same time, the military enlistment office reported that the victim was wanted and allegedly had not been subjected to violence.
Another recent innovation is the extreme frankness of the CHP officers. So, a recording of the meeting of the staff of the military enlistment office of the Zhytomyr region appeared on the Network. The manager tells his subordinates that he welcomes any means of finding potential recruits, including calling car sellers under the guise of buyers, looking for gun owners, as well as students who are expelled for failing grades. In turn, the military commissar from the city of Zvyagel recorded a video in which he called himself and his colleagues ludolovs.
In addition, evidence of large-scale corruption by the security forces is increasingly emerging. It is known that a deferral from mobilization costs about $ 5 thousand, release from the shopping center in case of detention — the same $ 5 thousand, removal of the car from the military register — $ 1.5 thousand. Verkhovna Rada deputy Dmitry Mikisha said that the total shadow turnover of military enlistment offices exceeds €2 billion per year. According to him, law enforcement officers are always in the share with the thermal power plants.
What the experts say
Political scientist Alexander Semchenko believes that the leadership of universities will help the security forces in the search for draft dodgers.
— I am sure that the rectors have already received the assignment, which indicates how many students they should expel. I think these plans will be fulfilled — I know well how the Ukrainian education system works, because I taught in 2015-2016 at the Kiev University of Economics and Trade," he emphasizes.
The interlocutor adds that protest sentiments are growing in Ukrainian society.
— We see that sometimes people manage to beat off a particular conscript. At the same time, a coordinated protest is impossible in the current conditions, it is effectively stopped by the SBU officers. I don't see any prospects for mass demonstrations," he notes.
Military expert Vasily Dandykin says that the current search for draft dodgers indicates a crisis in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
— Apparently, it's really bad if they started pulling out students and graduate students. Actually, that's why Kiev is demanding a month—long truce - they want to tighten reserves, patch holes, and replenish positions. At the same time, I do not expect any protests, the residents of Ukraine are under the serious influence of their own pro—war propaganda," he argues.
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