The pursuit of armor: what will lead to increased mobilization in Ukraine
In Ukraine, the intensification of mobilization continues. Since April 1, the number of critically important enterprises in the country has been decreasing, and all previously issued reservations are "burning out". It is believed that now a "window of opportunity" will open for military commissars, when they will be able to increase the pace of conscription into the Armed Forces. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Reservations are not for everyone
The issue of booking employees of critical enterprises began to be raised in Ukraine last fall. Then it turned out that 1.5 million people received deferrals in this way, and at one of the meetings, Vladimir Zelensky allegedly set the task of reducing this number. As a result, in October, the government blocked the possibility of booking through the Dia website (an analogue of the Russian Gosuslug), and in November adopted resolution No. 1332, which introduced new rules.
According to this document, a critically important enterprise must be indispensable for the economy, as well as meet a number of additional criteria, for example, pay taxes of at least 1.5 million hryvnias (3 million rubles), have no debts, and pay all employees a salary of at least 20 thousand hryvnias per month (40 thousand rubles). In addition, the very procedure for adding a company to the list of particularly important ones, as well as booking specific employees, has changed.
Previously, the criticality status was issued only by central authorities, but now regional administrations have begun to deal with it. It was explained that this approach would help to book people from those companies that do not meet the general criteria, but are important for the economy of individual regions. It was expected that this would simplify the procedure, but in fact there was additional confusion, because local officials had been coming up with their own rules for a long time, and they began to differ greatly from region to region.
As a result, confusion arose, which caused the postponement of the deadline: initially, all the old armor was supposed to burn on March 1, later the transition period was extended by a month. It is now expected that on April 1, a "window of opportunity" will open for Ukrainian military commissars, when they will be able to dramatically increase the pace of conscription of men into the Armed Forces. The fact is that some potential recruits are deprived of the right to a postponement, others seem to have this right, but still have not had time to re-register.
It is expected that there will be a critical shortage of workers in a number of industries. Thus, the head of the All-Ukrainian Association of Passenger Transportation, Igor Zhitinsky, said that there may be an acute shortage of public transport drivers in the country. According to him, up to 40% of transport companies do not meet the booking criteria, so after April 1 in some regions "just no one will go on routes."
Russification on the march
In Ukraine, the fact of armor has not always saved from mobilization before. So, at the end of last year, several stories thundered out when power plant workers grabbed men on the streets who had all the documents on the postponement in their hands. Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexander Fediyenko said at the time that he would not leave these cases without consequences, threatening to punish the perpetrators. Nevertheless, none of the staff of the military registration and enlistment offices was injured, and the men who were illegally conscripted into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not returned home.
Additional problems began to arise at the end of March, when marks in the form of asterisks and red lines began to appear in the electronic cabinets of potential recruits, along with requests to update the data. "At this stage, the opportunity to book an employee is disabled, he begins a "quest" on how to get to his military enlistment office. At the nearest checkpoint, he can be sent to a military medical commission right at the place of the stop," said businessman Dmitry Leushkin.
At the same time, other methods of forced mobilization have not gone away, and raids continue on the streets of Ukrainian cities. In the city of Khmelnitsky in the west of the country, a man was detained in front of his family. The published video shows how a young man is told that he is wanted, wringing his hands and knocking him to the ground. The wife is trying to fight off her husband, and her little son is crying next to her. At the end of the video, the man is pushed into a police car.
In Odessa, several women stood up for an unknown man whom they wanted to mobilize, in response, the military commissar kicked one of them in the stomach. In the Rivne region, police detained a man who was carrying a stroller with a baby, and the child was left abandoned in the middle of the sidewalk. In Kharkiv, a man in a military uniform pushed a passing cyclist, who lost his balance and fell to the ground. After that, two cars with employees of the shopping mall (territorial recruitment and social support center) arrived and forced the victim to board a company bus.
Employees of the shopping mall push a man into a bus on the street in Lviv
Interestingly, the Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmitry Lubinets said against this background that employees of military enlistment offices systematically violate human rights. According to him, violence, beatings of citizens, deliberate provocation of road accidents are regularly recorded, lawyers are not allowed to see detainees, they hide from relatives, they are forced to sign conscription documents by force and deception. "The consistency and scale of these violations require urgent decisions at the state level," he said at the end of March.
In this regard, a group of Ukrainian deputies has developed a bill that suggests that employees of the shopping mall can receive up to eight years in prison for illegal mobilization. In March, the document was adopted in the first reading. It is noted that even if the bill is finally approved, the forcibly mobilized will not be released from military service, a separate court decision will be required for each such case, and the proceedings may last for years.
What the experts say
Political analyst Alexander Semchenko believes that large-scale raids may take place in Ukraine after April 1.
— I think we will see a continuous combing of individual residential areas and businesses. Something similar has already happened, some houses have already been blocked in the Kiev district of Troyeshchyna, in Dnipro, in Odessa. So far, this phenomenon has not been widespread, but the situation is changing. As for possible protest actions, they are already underway. People run away from military enlistment offices, beat off those who are trying to be pinned down on the street, and sometimes physically fight back against the security guards. There are more and more such facts, while I do not expect any rallies, any attempt to organize public appearances will be quickly suppressed by the SBU," he notes.
Political analyst Alexander Dudchak says that the combat capability of the Ukrainian army may increase after the call-up of additional forces.
— We see that even now the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is difficult, but controlled. They are retreating in most areas of the front, but they have no collapse anywhere. If they can attract additional forces, they will probably strengthen their positions. Globally, the trends are still negative for them, but right now there is no talk of a defeat," he emphasizes.
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