Could the conflict between India and Pakistan escalate into a war? Analysis
India and Pakistan exchanged missile strikes on the night of May 7. Earlier, the parties announced the suspension of agreements regulating relations between the countries. What caused the resumption of the conflict and whether it could lead to a full—scale war is in the Izvestia article.
What happened
On the night of May 7, India attacked targets located in the Pakistani part of the Jammu and Kashmir region (the disputed region is partly controlled by India and partly by Pakistan), as well as on the territory of Pakistan itself, officially recognized by the international community. The Indian Foreign Ministry stressed that the attacks were not aimed at military installations and their purpose was to destroy the infrastructure used by the terrorists.
India said that as a result of Operation Sindoor, it was possible to hit nine terrorist camps and kill 70 militants in Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir. The targets were chosen in such a way as to "avoid damage to civilian infrastructure and loss of civilian lives." In India, relatives of the victims of the April 22 terrorist attack welcomed the "retaliatory strikes" on Pakistani-controlled territory.
In 1947, when British India gained independence, the country split into two independent states — India (dominated by Buddhism) and Pakistan (dominated by Islam). The state of Jammu and Kashmir refused to join one of the countries, but after the Muslim uprising and the invasion of the Pakistani Pashtuns, the Maharaja of the state, Hari Singh, agreed to join the territory of India in exchange for military support.
According to Pakistan, 26 civilians were killed and 46 injured in the overnight attack. In response to the attacks from India, Pakistan closed its airspace and promised to retaliate. The press Service of the Pakistan Armed Forces (ISPR) reported that the army destroyed several Indian checkpoints, including Chhatri, Jura and Sarlia-1.
Pakistan reported that five warplanes were shot down. The Indian side confirmed the defeat of the three fighters, saying that the pilots were hospitalized, but later local media deleted the news. In total, seven civilians in Indian Kashmir became victims of Pakistani shelling, and another 35 people were injured.
Strikes of retribution
The attacks by the Indian military were a response to a terrorist attack near Pahalgam, a city in the Indian part of Jammu and Kashmir, in late April. The terrorists chose the most popular tourist destination for the attack and opened fire on unarmed people, selecting victims based on religious affiliation. As a result of the attack, 26 people were killed and dozens were injured.
India blamed Pakistan-backed Kashmiri separatist groups for the attack. Pakistan has stated that terrorist groups from Afghanistan are behind the attacks and demanded an independent international investigation (we have discussed what caused the conflicts between India and Pakistan here).
The terrorist group Resistance Front (TRF), which advocates for the independence of Kashmir, claimed responsibility for the attack. TRF is considered an offshoot of the Pakistani armed group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) (recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia), listed by the UN Security Council as a terrorist organization in 2005. The group advocated the separation of Kashmir from India.
The terrorist attack near Pahalgam occurred a few weeks after the Indian government passed a law on waqf (charitable donations to a religious organization. — Ed.), which changed the order of property management of Muslim communities. Religious leaders and opposition parties considered this law a violation of the rights of Muslims. Islam is practiced by the vast majority of the population in Jammu and Kashmir.
Reactions from other countries
US President Donald Trump reacted to the aggravation of relations between India and Pakistan, calling the overnight attacks by India a "disgrace" and expressing hope for an early end to the conflict. Japan condemned the terrorist attack on April 22 and called on the parties to exercise restraint so that the exchange of blows would not escalate into a full-scale conflict.
The UN expressed concern about India's strikes on Pakistan and Kashmir, while China called the military operation deplorable and advised the parties to remain calm so as not to complicate the situation. Israel has come out in support of India's right to self-defense and condemned the crimes of terrorists. The EU and the UAE called on the parties to engage in dialogue and de-escalate the conflict.
Russia stated the need to unite the efforts of the entire international community to combat terrorism and expressed the hope that the countries would be able to resolve their differences in accordance with previously concluded agreements. The Russian Foreign Ministry maintains contacts with both sides of the conflict and may act as a mediator in peace talks between India and Pakistan in the future.
Is war possible
Unlike previous armed conflicts, of which there were many between India and Pakistan, the harsh reaction from New Delhi attracts attention. For the first time, India unilaterally suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, according to which Pakistan could use river water indefinitely and block Indian initiatives to build hydroelectric power plants. Immediately after the suspension of the treaty, India announced the resumption of efforts to implement hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir.
In response to the suspension of the treaty, Pakistan announced the suspension of the 1972 Simla Agreement, which fixed the existing borders of Jammu and Kashmir between the countries and forbade them to change them unilaterally. This fact also indicates an increased risk of military escalation.
Despite the obvious risks, experts rule out the possibility that the conflict between India and Pakistan could escalate into a full-scale war. This scenario is not beneficial for India: the statement that the targets of the attacks were not military and civilian infrastructure focuses on the fight against terrorism, rather than actions against Pakistan. New Delhi's harsh reaction is rather a political decision designed to demonstrate the uncompromising nature of the government and avoid attacks by the opposition.
Islamabad is also not interested in war, as it does not have sufficient weapons. According to press reports, due to the supply of weapons to Ukraine, the available stocks in the event of an armed confrontation with Pakistan will last for 96 hours.
Both countries possess nuclear weapons, but Pakistan can use them only in the event of an existential threat to the state, which does not yet exist. India adheres to a policy of not using nuclear weapons first.
During the preparation of the Izvestia material, we talked and took into account the opinions of:
- Associate Professor of the Department of International Relations at the Diplomatic Academy under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Retired Sergey Velichkin;
- Oleg Ivanov, Head of the Department of International Security at the Diplomatic Academy under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation;
- Leyla Turayanova, a junior researcher at the Center for the Indian Ocean Region of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
