Show trial: Lithuania threatens Russia and Belarus with sanctions
Lithuania is beginning to build its own front against Russia and Belarus. The Baltics remember that the EU sanctions against Russia expire at the end of July. However, when trying to extend the restrictions, the EU has recently encountered objections from Hungary, which causes concern in Vilnius. Therefore, Lithuania wants to create a sanctions barrier on the western Russian and Belarusian borders, for which they want to enlist the support of Latvia, Poland, Estonia and Finland. In other words, Vilnius considers the scenario with the lifting of EU anti-Russian sanctions as quite real. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Lithuanian Initiative
Since February 24, 2022, the European Union has already imposed 16 sets of sanctions against Russia. They are aimed at specific individuals, as well as sectors of the Russian economy and individual companies. These sanctions need to be regularly extended; once again, they expire at the end of July. Recently, the EU leadership has faced objections from Hungary regarding the extension of restrictions, and Lithuanians now have concerns that this could happen again in the near future. Therefore, Vilnius has begun to develop a system of countermeasures, which are supposed to be applied, as the Lithuanian authorities emphasize, only as a "last resort."
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania proposes to supplement national legislation with a norm on individual sanctions against Russia and Belarus. "Despite the fact that the European Union remains ready to increase pressure on Russia, including the imposition of additional sanctions, the refusal to further extend sanctions may be due to systematic actions by individual EU member states contrary to the common interests of European security," the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry said.
The head of the ministry, Kastutis Budris, explained that Lithuania and some other EU countries are preparing such plans in case the previously imposed European sanctions are not extended in the summer. Sanctions in the European Union are extended by mutual agreement of the countries, but this time in Vilnius there are concerns about a possible veto from Hungary. "The Foreign Ministry will make appropriate amendments in the near future. They are currently being coordinated between different ministries, between interested institutions and within the government," Budris said in an interview with the BNS news agency.
Recently, the Lithuanian Seimas has already extended national sanctions, mainly concerning restrictions on citizens of the Russian Federation and Belarus. For example, Russians permanently residing in Lithuania now face the threat of losing their local residence permit if they travel to their homeland more than once every three months. Now Budris wants to expand this law by introducing various new additional restrictions. At the same time, he wants Lithuania to introduce these restrictive measures jointly with neighboring EU and NATO countries. The head of the Lithuanian diplomatic department said that it would be good to reach an agreement on economic sanctions at least for the countries of the Baltic region bordering Russia and Belarus, so that Russian and Belarusian goods could not enter the EU by land.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Palukas shares a similar opinion. He acknowledges that national sanctions cannot be equivalent to pan-European restrictions. "National sanctions cannot be equivalent and will not be able to compensate for European sanctions if there are no European ones. They may be national, but they still need to be adopted at least on a regional scale. This means that Latvians, Poles, Estonians, and Finns must also make such decisions," the Prime Minister said. According to him, if Latvia, Poland, Estonia and Finland are unwilling or unable to impose such sanctions, "Lithuania, having made such decisions alone, will not achieve any goals and will suffer significant damage."
National sanctions won't work
A similar point of view is shared by former Prime Minister Ingrid Simonite, who led the Lithuanian government from the end of 2020 to the end of 2024. She also says that Lithuania's sanctions alone will have limited effect. However, according to the politician, national sanctions would be useful to "preserve the reputation" of Lithuania. In addition, as Simonite emphasizes, it is necessary to block the access of Russian products at least to the territory of Lithuania alone.
Former Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrid Simonite
In turn, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda declares that Lithuania will be ready to impose national economic sanctions against Russia if the EU does not extend the current restrictions. However, he also noted that general sanctions are much more effective. According to the Lithuanian president, "there is no reason not to extend them; on the contrary, they need to be tightened." The Head of State emphasizes that Hungary has taken a "destructive" position.
Gitanas Nauseda urges to adopt the 17th EU sanctions package currently under discussion as soon as possible. And Asta Skaisgirite, the Lithuanian president's chief foreign policy adviser, believes that if necessary, it will be easy to persuade neighboring countries to join regional sanctions against Russia. "First of all, we see the accession of the other two Baltic states, Poland, possibly Finland and other northern states. We are often so like—minded that, I think, it is not difficult to agree on such a combination of countries," Skysgirite said on the Ziniu radijas radio station.
But Remigius Gemaitaitis, chairman of the Zarya nad Neman coalition party, is skeptical about discussions about national sanctions. He fears a repeat of the story of three years ago, when Lithuania single-handedly challenged China, and then suffered greatly economically. According to Zhemaitaitis, if the European Union does not extend the sanctions imposed against Russia and Belarus, the economic restrictions imposed by Lithuania will be useless. "National sanctions won't work. It's impossible for them to work. If there is no regional agreement, we will not be able to do anything. Just look at the ports and look at the products, where they come from," Zhemaitaitis told reporters at the Seimas. And reminded: "Lithuania started a war with China, but somehow this idea died down, Lithuania started friendship with Taiwan - we were left with absolute zero."
Senior presidential adviser Frederikas Jansonsas is trying to reassure his colleagues, according to whom national sanctions against Belarus and Russia may not be necessary. But in any case, according to Jansonas, it is necessary to remain ready for their introduction. "Should we prepare? Yes, they should. We all see Hungary's position and understand that it is becoming increasingly difficult for Europe to come to a common agreement when some people do not want to impose any sanctions against Russia at all," Jansonas said in an interview with Žiniū radijus. "Will there be any effect from the national sanctions of one state? We are not naive. We understand that this will not happen in the single economic space, but in this case we must talk about our national sanctions, regional sanctions, and broader sanctions. There are various solutions. We need to prepare. Are you sure you'll need them? No, not necessarily."
The Coalition of Five
It can be assumed that Vilnius' idea of building a "sanctions barrier" near the borders of Russia and Belarus will find a response in Latvia, Poland, Estonia and Finland. All these countries advocate continued sanctions pressure. And Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna attacked Hungary with threats and accusations, whose Prime Minister Viktor Orban he accused of "playing for the opposing team." Now Tsakhkna is also worried that Hungary will disrupt the extension of sanctions. "EU sanctions have been in effect for six months, which means that they need to be reviewed and extended every six months. The extension requires a unanimous decision of all member countries," explained Margus Tsakhkna. He also noted that in July, the sanctions will be extended, under which the EU froze assets of the Central Bank of Russia in the amount of 200 billion euros.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
In addition, Cahkna demands that Budapest be sanctioned. "Hungary systematically acts against the common security interests of Europe. Therefore, we must urgently take concrete steps to launch proceedings under article seven of the Treaty on the European Union, that is, to suspend Hungary's voting rights," the Estonian Foreign Minister urged. It should be clarified that Article 7 of the EU Treaty provides for the possibility of suspending the rights of a member State of the European Union (for example, voting rights in the Council of the EU). This is allowed "in the case of a serious and systematic violation of the principles on which the union is based." It is worth noting, however, that although Margus Tsakhkna made a corresponding proposal in mid-March, it has not yet been implemented.
Natalia Eremina, Doctor of Political Sciences, professor at St. Petersburg State University, in a conversation with Izvestia, stressed that any sanctions regime always has a two—pronged orientation - it hits not only those against whom it was introduced, but also those who introduced it. "And in this case, Lithuania and the other Baltic countries, which used to make money from transit services, as an economic bridge between East and West, are particularly damaging. The Balts are suffering huge losses due to the idle infrastructure, the lack of loading of their railways, the almost completely closed borders, and the cessation of traditional interaction between residents of border territories. Investors are leaving there. Russia no longer needs the ports and railways of the Baltic states, having built an alternative transport infrastructure, but the Baltic States have not found an adequate replacement for Russian and Belarusian cargo," Eremina emphasizes.
According to her, by building their own individual sanctions barrier against Russia, the Balts will only perpetuate their current state of permanent economic decline and demographic crisis.
"At the same time, they are actually erecting an iron curtain, since we are talking about the desire to prevent the movement of not only goods, but also people. So far, restrictions on the travel of residents of the Baltic States to Russia and Belarus are being introduced gradually, but at one point everything may end in a complete ban. In other words, it creates a zone of absolute hostility towards us. And it is clear that the authorities of the Baltic states hate Russia more than they love their own countries," concludes Professor Eremina.
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