Just to warm up: The United States wanted to ban Iran from enriching uranium
The main stumbling block of the recent US-Iranian negotiations was Tehran's right to enrich uranium on its own. The United States insists that Iran purchase nuclear materials for peaceful purposes abroad, but the Iranians do not want to depend on other countries. Another major disagreement is Washington's desire to include clauses related to Iran's missile program in the nuclear deal. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Contradictions have accumulated
"The United States and Iran have approached the third round of negotiations without having a common position on whether Tehran can continue enriching uranium. The discussions ended in serious disagreements, and the parties promised to meet again," The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports.
In particular, Tehran insists that it uses nuclear technology only for peaceful purposes, defending its right to independently produce hydrometallurgical processing of uranium ore. According to the newspaper, such a resource can be used to generate electricity, but at the same time, Iran can also maintain control over what in the future will allow it to create nuclear weapons.
The United States does not seem to be against Iran's peaceful nuclear program, but demands that Tehran buy enriched uranium abroad.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated this before the start of the negotiations: "If Iran insists on its enrichment, it will become the only country without a nuclear program, but with uranium enrichment, and this is risky," Rubio said in an interview with The Free Press.
In addition, US President Donald Trump's demand to extend the nuclear deal to Iran's missile program is controversial.
"Some of our differences are very serious," said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Answering a question from the Tasnim news agency about whether the parties will be able to reach an agreement, the minister replied that he was full of hope, "although he is very cautious."
Donald Trump, in turn, claims that "negotiations with Iran are progressing successfully."
A country enriched with uranium
During the presidency of Barack Obama, the United States agreed for Tehran to continue enriching its own materials, which subsequently made it possible to conclude the so-called nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) in 2015. According to it, Iran's nuclear program was limited to a ban on potential weapons development. According to the agreement, the Islamic Republic was allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67% for peaceful purposes.
As the WSJ reports, this figure subsequently increased significantly. The publication says that after Trump's withdrawal from the deal in 2017, Iran intensified its development. Now the country is the only non—nuclear power producing uranium enriched to 60%. The article emphasizes that in a short time this figure can be raised to 90%, and such a resource can already be used to manufacture a nuclear bomb.
The Wall Street Journal draws attention to the fact that while negotiations were underway between Iran and the United States, an explosion occurred in the largest Iranian port of Shahid Rajan. According to the latest data, 46 people were killed, and more than a thousand more were injured. The Iranian media cite the explosion of a fuel tank as the cause of the incident. At the same time, however, the National Iranian Oil Distribution and Refining Company stated that the detonation was not related to fuel tanks, oil pipelines or refineries.
Citing a source affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), The New York Times reported an explosion of sodium perchlorate, the main ingredient in solid rocket fuel. American analysts and officials told the WSJ that China has sent several shipments of rocket fuel there over the past couple of months.
Any country has the right to a peaceful atom.
Andrey Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Eastern Gate Telegram channel, noted in an interview with Izvestia that Iran and the United States always have a chance to reach an agreement.
— There would be such a desire, and there would also be a desire to make mutual concessions. In principle, all the conditions can be "wrapped" in one package and a new deal can be signed. But there is a kind of vicious logic in this whole story on the part of the United States," the political scientist notes.
According to him, regardless of whether the Iranians import uranium from abroad or enrich it themselves inside the country, if they have a desire to somehow violate the terms of the deal and move towards creating nuclear weapons, they will find a way to do so.
— They will build centrifuges and enrich this uranium in secret conditions. There is no difference from how enriched uranium will appear in Iran. And in this regard, the position of the Iranians is just more consistent," the expert believes.
He believes that any country has the right to a peaceful atom and to develop its own nuclear program.
— If the Iranians have their own uranium enrichment capabilities, why should they depend on anyone? Today, one country sells uranium, and tomorrow it refuses. And Tehran is frantically looking for a new supplier. Just agree on the terms of processing, send the IAEA inspectors, and let there be control," the specialist is sure.
In addition, according to the analyst, the deal that was concluded under Obama was, in a sense, a benchmark. This is largely why the Iranians are now saying that they are not ready to return to the JCPOA — they believe that the previous terms of the agreement were more beneficial.
— Tehran needs guarantees that the Americans will not withdraw from this deal again. For example, this agreement must be approved by the American Congress, which will seriously complicate the procedure for the potential withdrawal of the United States from the agreement, the analyst believes.
There are chances, but they are small
Ivan Glukhov, a researcher at the Center for Interdisciplinary Studies of the INION RAS, noted in an interview with Izvestia that Iran has been in a difficult geopolitical situation since the end of last year.
— The opponents managed to deliver a number of sensitive blows and, in this regard, defeated the so-called Axis of Resistance, which stretched from Iran itself through Syria, Lebanon to Palestine and the West Bank of the Jordan River and the Gaza Strip. In this regard, the Iranian leadership had to take extraordinary measures and announce a change in its foreign policy concept. In addition, various external forces are interested in a very destructive development of the situation in the Middle East. Accordingly, his starting point could well be a deep domestic political crisis in Iran with its subsequent release to the international level," the political scientist believes.
Ivan Glukhov believes that an attempt is underway to find common ground between the United States and Iran, but negotiations are going very hard.
— As we can see, the parties practically do not communicate with each other, relying on the mediation services of the Omani side. But it is very interesting to see how both sides assess the results of these difficult negotiations. And they evaluate them positively," the specialist notes.
According to him, this suggests that despite the great abundance of disagreements and problems, the parties are still striving to come to a mutually beneficial agreement as far as possible.
— We can tell a lot by the extent to which the American side will be able to push through the Iranian side. There is no doubt that the US attempts to put additional items on the agenda by linking them to the agreement are a kind of attempt to study and verify the Iranian positions, their willingness to step back from their basic attitudes and meet halfway," the analyst explained.
Glukhov added that this is important because it helps to understand the current state of the internal political forces in Iran. In his opinion, there is a long and very difficult negotiation process ahead. It is likely that there will be several more intense rounds. There are chances to reach an agreement and conclude a new agreement, but they are very slim, especially if the United States continues to try to include new items on the negotiating agenda.
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