India and Pakistan are on the brink of war. Analysis

In Indian Kashmir, terrorists shot dead 26 people, mostly tourists from other regions of India. A group supporting the annexation of Kashmir to Pakistan claimed responsibility for the attack. The tragedy has sharply strained relations between the two countries, each of which possesses nuclear weapons. What the escalation will lead to and why Kashmir has become the scene of a long—term conflict is in the Izvestia article.

What happened in Kashmir

• On April 22, a group of tourists was attacked near the town of Pahalgam in Indian Kashmir. Five militants shot dead 26 men: 23 Indians from other regions, one citizen of Nepal and the UAE each, and a Kashmiri accompanying them. At least 20 other people were injured.

• The Kashmiri Resistance claimed responsibility for the attack. It is a member of the terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (banned in Russia), which operates mainly in Pakistan and aims to annex Kashmir. The terrorists claimed that the attack on tourists was a response to the Indian settlement of the Kashmir Valley.

The pacified conflict: India and Pakistan are on the verge of war

Countries expel diplomats, cancel visas, close borders and airspace

• India immediately imposed a series of measures against Pakistan in response to the attack. She closed the only land border crossing point and canceled the visa waiver program, obliging Pakistanis who used it to leave the country within two days. The composition of the diplomatic corps of Pakistan in New Delhi was reduced from 55 to 30 people, and advisers on defense, naval and air forces were declared persona non grata. Pakistan, in turn, cut off trade with India, closed its airspace to Indian airlines, and also canceled the visa exemption program.

• India also suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, which had been in force since 1960. The agreement divided between the two countries control over the tributaries of the Indus, which flows mainly through Pakistan and plays a key role in its life. The treaty prevents India from artificially causing floods or droughts in Pakistan. Islamabad warned that any actions related to the redirection of water flows would be regarded as an "act of war" with the ensuing consequences.

How the conflict in Kashmir arose

• Until the middle of the 20th century, the principality of Jammu and Kashmir, headed by Maharaja Hari Singh, was located in the now disputed territory. When, in 1947, Great Britain announced a plan to leave the Indian Peninsula and divide its territory into India and Pakistan proper, hundreds of formally independent principalities were given a choice: to join one of the new states or to remain independent. The vast majority joined India or Pakistan, depending on whether their predominant religion was Hinduism or Islam.

• Hari Singh initially announced his intention to maintain independence. Although he was a Hindu himself, he harbored a dislike for the central government of India. At the same time, the majority of the population of Jammu and Kashmir was Muslim, and therefore he feared absorption by Pakistan. The decision to maintain independence sparked an uprising to overthrow the Maharaja and join Pakistan.

• Hari Singh turned for help to India, which imposed a condition on the entry of the principality into its composition. The Maharaja agreed, and India sent troops that managed to occupy two thirds of his territory. Pakistan, after some delay, brought in its army, as a result of which the first Indo-Pakistani war began. As a result, the territorial changes turned out to be insignificant and a truce was concluded. The UN adopted a resolution on the need to hold a plebiscite to determine the fate of the disputed territory, but this proposal was rejected by both India and Pakistan.

• Subsequently, three more major armed conflicts occurred between India and Pakistan in Kashmir: the second Indo-Pakistani War of 1965, the third Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 (mostly it took place in modern Bangladesh) and the Kargil War of 1999. In the latter case, Pakistan denied its involvement, pointing to the involvement of Kashmiri Mujahideen in the conflict. All these clashes have not led to any significant territorial changes.

The disputes between India and Pakistan over Kashmir are complicated by the presence of nuclear weapons in both countries. India conducted its first nuclear test back in 1974, after which it halted the development of the atom for two decades. Pakistan began developing weapons in response to the loss of Bangladesh in 1971. In 1998, both countries conducted nuclear tests and achieved nuclear parity among themselves.

• Until 2019, Indian Kashmir was a state with a special status, until it was divided into two union territories governed by federal authorities. One of them was named Jammu and Kashmir, and the other Ladakhk. This decision deprived local residents of their former benefits, and gave the rest of India the right to buy real estate in the former state and get a job. This caused tension in Kashmir, and it was then that the Kashmiri Resistance was formed.

What is present-day Kashmir made of?

• Currently, the territory commonly referred to as Kashmir is divided into several entities that are different from each other. The most populated is the Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir with a population of 12 million people, while only 270 thousand people live in neighboring Ladakhk. Jammu and Kashmir are conventionally divided into Jammu, where two thirds of the 5.5 million people are Hindus, and the Kashmir Valley, whose 6.5 million population is almost entirely Muslim. In Ladakhka, almost half of the population professes Islam, and about 40% adheres to Buddhism. It also includes the Siachen Glacier, in which Pakistan maintains its military presence.

• The territory controlled by Pakistan is also divided into two parts. Most of it is Gilgit-Baltistan province and is located in the northernmost part of Kashmir. About 1.5 million people live there. To the south is Azad Kashmir, whose territory is six times smaller, but the population is almost three times larger. Formally, Pakistan treats Azad Kashmir as an independent state with its own authorities and state symbols, but in the world this territory is treated as part of Pakistan.

Part of Kashmir's territory is also controlled by China, which includes these possessions in the region as part of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. One of the districts is Aksaychin, a deserted and uninhabited area through which the Chinese road to Tibet passes. The PRC occupied it during the annexation of Tibet in 1951. Another is also the uninhabited Kirchinbulak Valley, also known as the Trans-Karakoram Tract. Pakistan agreed to transfer this territory to China as part of the 1963 agreement.

Elephant versus Dragon: India and China compete for influence

New Delhi has signed a military pact with a neighboring island

• India currently claims all the territories occupied by both Pakistan and China. At the same time, New Delhi is making claims to Islamabad for ceding the Kirchinbulak Valley to Beijing, considering it illegal. Pakistan claims the union territories of India, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakhk. Although the parties are not actively fighting for territories due to nuclear parity, there are skirmishes between them, including with the participation of terrorist groups.

Will there be an escalation in Kashmir

The incident was an attempt by the Pakistani leadership to divert public attention from the severe economic crisis in the country, the expert community is confident. India's domestic tourists were deliberately targeted so that the indigenous population of the region would not be offended, and outside forces were used in the attack so that New Delhi would not accuse Islamabad of formal aggression. The incident led to the isolation of Pakistan, and the United States and China, which usually approve of it, made it clear that they would not express support this time.

• At the current stage, experts rule out the possibility of a nuclear conflict: neither India nor Pakistan are ready for this. Full-scale military operations involving conventional forces are also unlikely. However, India may launch a retaliatory strike on a local scale using unmanned aircraft against the populated Pakistani territories of northern Kashmir, where militant training camps are located, analysts say. By reducing the number of military diplomatic staff in Pakistan, India has made it clear that it will act harshly and persistently in response.

During the preparation of the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• Andrey Volodin, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences, Professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation;
• Alexey Kupriyanov, Head of the South Asia and Indian Ocean Region Group at the IMEMO RAS Center for Asia-Pacific Studies.