The expert named the main reason for the decline of the Russian car market

Sales of passenger cars in Russia in the first quarter of 2025 showed a significant decrease — by 26% year-on-year. The main factor was a sharp reduction in car loans. This was announced on April 18 by Daniil Shkurygin, Commercial Director of <url>, at the annual FinAuto 2025 forum.

According to him, in March 2025, the overall drop in car loans was more than 40% compared to the same period last year. The availability of credit products was reduced by the high key interest rate and the tightening of macroprudential requirements, which led to a reorientation of buyers to use the accumulated funds. This, in turn, affected the structure of demand: customers began to purchase cars with minimal options more often and reduce the transaction amount, which further increased pressure on prices and market margins.

"We see that subsidizing loan rates by automakers remains one of the key tools to stimulate demand. Programs offering loans at 12% per annum with the possibility of placing available funds on deposits with a yield of up to 23% attract not only borrowers, but also clients with savings. However, the effectiveness of such measures is temporary," said Shkurygin.

According to experts, the refusal of subsidies can lead to a loss of 30-40% of sales, which makes this support critically important in the current environment. At the same time, a long-term market recovery is impossible without stabilizing the macroeconomic environment, he said.

The expert assumes that in the second quarter of 2025, against the background of the high base of last year, a further decrease in car loans is expected — up to 40% in annual terms. The main demand will be generated by buyers who are ready to partially or fully pay for cars at their own expense, as well as the corporate segment. Market participants are encouraged to focus on flexible programs, including enhanced trade-in, inventory optimization, and an individual approach to customers.

"Nevertheless, without improving macroeconomic indicators and easing credit conditions, significant sales growth should not be expected in the coming months," he stressed.

Last year's snow: new car sales halved in March

Why has the purchasing activity of Russians decreased?

On April 15, it was reported that about a third of Chinese brands in Russia increased their discounts on new cars in the amount of 70-100 thousand rubles to keep up with demand. Some brands offer discounts on cars manufactured in 2024 in the amount of 5-10%, and for unclaimed equipment the discount can reach 15-20%.

On April 4, it became known that sales of new passenger cars in Russia in March 2025 amounted to 79.8 thousand units, which is 45.5% less than in March last year.