Last year's snow: new car sales halved in March

The March drop in new car sales has already been called dramatic — minus 45.5% compared to March last year. Buyers are waiting for better times, and manufacturers are selling off last year's cars accumulated in warehouses. Buy a car now or wait for even bigger discounts — Izvestia figured it out.

Leaders with a minus sign

According to the analytical agency Autostat, 79,822 new passenger cars were registered in the first month of spring, which is almost half as much as in March 2024. At the same time, analysts say, the March result was 2% higher than the result of February this year.

Lada, despite a 37% decrease in sales, dominates the market with a significant gap from competitors — more than 25 thousand cars. Haval, the most popular foreign brand, was able to sell less than 10 thousand cars, sales collapsed by 39%. Other leading brands are also in serious decline - Chery by 36% (8.4 thousand cars), Geely by 65.8% (5.1 thousand cars). Only domestic Solaris is in the black (1,555 units), on a low base it has grown almost 9 times. Also included in the Top 15 popular brands are Exeed, Toyota, Moskvich and BAIC, which decided to improve its unenviable market position by significantly reducing prices.

According to the results of the first quarter, almost 247 thousand cars were sold, which is 25% less than last year, according to Autostat.

The only model that showed growth was Lada Largus (1995 cars), also due to its low base. Lada Granta sank by 43%, but this did not prevent it from leading the "model standings" — more than 10 thousand cars sold. Lada Vesta is in second place (7.2 thousand, minus 36%), and Haval Jolion became the most popular foreign car, sales of which collapsed by 38% with a result of 4 thousand cars.

Unexpected depth

The head of AVTOVAZ, Maxim Sokolov, has already called the March market decline "dramatic." Renat Tyukteev, Deputy General Director for New Car Sales at Avilon AG, drew attention to the fact that in March last year the market grew strongly on the news of an increase in recycling. This, in his opinion, was the reason for the difference from March of this year.

Among the factors affecting sales, representatives of car dealers call the cooling in the lending and leasing market due to the high Central Bank rate. High deposit rates keep individuals from accumulating in banks, and the ruble's exchange rate dynamics slow down demand. Sales are also influenced by rumors about the possible return of departed brands.

Analysts admit that the depth of the market decline was unexpected for them.

— A lot of things in the automotive market depend not on economics, but on geopolitics and regulations. No one expected such an approach to recycling, no one knew that there would be such a key rate," said Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of Autostat.

Underestimated the "zhdunov"

Sergey Tselikov, General Director of the agency, during the online conference "Autostat. Operative admitted that he underestimated the Zhdunov factor, which postponed the purchase of a car, including due to rumors about the return of brands that had left the Russian market.

— Now is a great time to wait. Money is being spent in banks at very high interest rates. Now is a good time to hold it, scroll through the interest and buy a car closer to the summer for an order of magnitude more profitable," he said.

Surveys show that 70% of respondents are not going to change their car yet. At the same time, representatives of Autostat noted that, according to forecasts, imports of bygone brands may recover only by 2027, and the prices of these cars may be unpleasantly surprising. Sergey Tselikov said that now the weighted average price for non-Chinese premium reaches 15.5 million rubles.

Selling off last year's stocks

Chinese brands offer big discounts and subsidized loans with reduced rates, according to Autostat. According to Sergey Tselikov's calculations, the number of cars in warehouses currently reaches 350 thousand units, and taking into account cars manufactured in 2025 — about half a million.

According to Autostat, of the 247,000 new cars sold in the first quarter, 220,000 were built in 2024 and 2023. In 2021, for example, the share of "last year's" cars was only 10%.

At the same time, importers continue to import last year's cars to Russia without mileage. In March, of the 72,000 imported cars, 82% were produced in 2024, and another 3% in 2023.

— There is no conspiracy theory here. It's all about overstocking warehouses. As soon as they unload, we will immediately see more 2025 models. There are brands from Chinese manufacturers that have enough stocks for 5-8 months. And one is even 10. In fact, until the end of the year, Nikolai Ivanov, director of the Rolf company's new car department, told Izvestia.

The price increase has not been noticed yet

In the first quarter, car prices increased by 3-4%, Nikolai Ivanov noted. Thanks to promotions and discounts from importers and dealers, the end user does not feel this yet.

According to the representative of Rolf, discounts are now available for almost all models that are officially presented in Russia — on average from 100 to 300 thousand rubles. Dealers add about 100 thousand rubles to this.

— These programs are still in effect, but there are cases when the manufacturer raises prices. Even if it is minimal, it is also a definite signal," said Nikolai Ivanov.

Automakers have expanded their support programs to maintain demand. About a third of brands from China have increased discounts to 70-100 thousand rubles, said Renat Tyukteev.

— Most brands are in the discount zone in March and early April. Due to this, we expect a slight increase in interest in purchases in April, it will not be rapid, but sales may grow by 10% compared to March," he believes.

"They will hit the most sensitive category"

According to Renat Tyukteev, a revival in demand can occur only if the Central Bank's interest rate is lowered to at least 15-17%. This will make the car loan market more accessible.

Nikita Margolin, Head of Sales at eCredit, recalled that starting from April 1, 2025, the Central Bank will introduce additional macroprudential allowances. We are talking about reducing the availability of loans for customers with a high debt burden, as well as restrictions on loans secured by an existing car, if the funds are not used to buy a new car, but for any other purpose.

— These innovations will primarily affect the most sensitive category of borrowers — those who plan to purchase a car with a minimum down payment. In such cases, the risk of non—repayment is higher, and banks will either have to tighten their own requirements or refuse to issue a loan altogether," he said.

The continuation of the downward trend in the market may lead to a crisis in the industry, which will require urgent government support, said Alexey Kalitsev, Chairman of the AEB Committee of Automakers.

They will fall until the middle of the year.

Autostate also presented an updated forecast for 2025 for new passenger cars at the level of 1.25-1.49 million cars. Many experts, but not all, agree with him.

— I believe that the first half of the year will be held in this way: every month we will say that it is worse than the same month last year. I think there will be such a situation until the middle of summer or autumn. A good scenario for this year is a repeat of the results of 2024," said Maxim Kadakov, editor—in—chief of Za Rulem.

It is already obvious that the forecast for the year should be revised downwards to 1.2 million or even lower, Nikolai Ivanov believes.

— I think that a trend reversal will occur this summer and the second half of the year will be significantly better than the first. We will close the year normally," Sergei Tselikov objects.